211 Crocker Ave N · Thief River Falls, MN 56701

$164,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,274 sqft · SingleFamily · 5 Days on market

Built 1930 6,403 sqft lot Est $209k · 21% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.8/30.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Very cute home with some nice character, has newer windows, kitchen cabinets, steel siding and original hardwood floors in the bedrooms. Home is being sold ''as is.''

Key facts

• Extra storage
• Original wood floors
• Glass door knobs

Tags

• ORIGINAL WOOD FLOORS
• GLASS DOOR KNOBS
• GENEROUS LIVING SPACE
• EXTRA STORAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $15 ($179/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $138k (16.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $138k (16.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#219 in MN, #4,606 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Thief River Falls School District (town): math 39% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #201 of 301 in MN (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 102 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 11 units permitted in Pennington County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pennington County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $91k; list at $165k implies a 81% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $137,500 (16.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.39%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $208,936
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
445 Maple Ave S	0.38mi	4/1.5	1,127 (-12%)	8mo	$185,000	$164	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-25,790
• Equity at exit: $24,587

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-21,317
• Equity at exit: $14,258

Cash invested: $46,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 56701

• Active inventory: 102
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,375 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$138 /mo · $1,654/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$289
• Net cashflow: $15

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,356

Max offer price $164,900

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,225
• Closing costs: $4,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
231 Tindolph Ave N Thief River Falls, MN	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,375	$1.38	43d	1	0.09mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-15
   listed $164,900 Active
3. 2013-09-19
   soldstatus $91,000 167-char remark

   Show marketing remark (167 chars)

   Very cute home with some nice character, has newer windows, kitchen cabinets, steel siding and original hardwood floors in the bedrooms. Home is being sold ''as is.''

4. 2013-09-19
   soldstatus $91,000

   Show marketing remark (167 chars)

   Very cute home with some nice character, has newer windows, kitchen cabinets, steel siding and original hardwood floors in the bedrooms. Home is being sold ''as is.''

5. 2013-06-21
   listed $98,900 167-char remark

   Show marketing remark (167 chars)

   Very cute home with some nice character, has newer windows, kitchen cabinets, steel siding and original hardwood floors in the bedrooms. Home is being sold ''as is.''

6. 2013-06-21
   listed $98,900

   Show marketing remark (167 chars)

   Very cute home with some nice character, has newer windows, kitchen cabinets, steel siding and original hardwood floors in the bedrooms. Home is being sold ''as is.''

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,654 · $138/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,750 · $146/mo
• Expected delta: +$96/yr (+$8/mo · 5.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,500
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,237
• − Property taxes: −$1,654
• − Insurance: −$824
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,320
• − Management: −$1,320
• − Depreciation: −$4,797
• Taxable loss: −$2,653
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$637
• After-tax cash flow: $816/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Thief River Falls School District
• NCES district ID: 2738850
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $49,239
• Composite: 36.88/100
• National rank: #4547
• State rank: #201 of 301 in MN

Livability — Thief River Falls

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #219
• US rank: #4606

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Thief River Falls, MN
• City population: 12,814
• Population (ZIP): 12,814

Population outlook (Pennington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,800 people
• By 2030: 15,030 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 15,402 · +4.1%
• By 2050: 15,601 · +5.4%
• By 2075: 15,659 · +5.8%
• By 2100: 14,231 · -3.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 34% Romanian 4% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pennington

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.5) · D 33.1% · R 64.6% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.1pp · 2024: -31.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.5 2020: R+27.0 2016: R+27.8 2012: R+4.3 2008: D+2.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -123.53%
• Current HPI: 136.4729
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+66.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-15 Listed $164,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-09-19 Sold (Public Records) $91,000 Public Records
• 2013-09-19 Sold (MLS) $91,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-06-21 Listed $98,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-06-21 Listed $98,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+7.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,654 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.