12803 Maiden Cane Ln · Bonita Springs, FL 34135

$311,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,490 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 284 Days on market

Built 1993 2,874 sqft lot Est $422k · 26% under $626/mo HOA · 10% of rent ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Motivated Seller! Welcome to this highly sought-after gated community of Hunters Ridge Golf and Country Club—a private, gated 24-hour guarded neighborhood offering resort-style amenities and a prime Bonita Springs location approximately 15 minutes from the beach! Social membership is required. Golf membership is optional. This spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom villa with a 2-car garage is ready for your personal touch. ADD YOUR STYLE and UPGRADES to TRANSFORM it INTO YOUR SW FLORIDA DREAM HOME. KEY FEATURES: Charming front courtyard entrance for a warm welcome • Open great room with vaulted ceilings and combined living/dining areas • Oversized screened lanai with roll-down s

Key facts

• Gated community
• Split floor plan
• Primary suite

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• GOLF AND COUNTRY CLUB
• FRONT COURTYARD ENTRANCE
• OVERSIZED SCREENED LANAI
• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• PRIMARY SUITE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Community features include golf, gated access and street lights; Approximately 550 units in the community
• Financial info: Pet policy: conditional — call for details
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with quarterly fee; Association fee includes cable TV, insurance, internet, grounds maintenance, reserve fund and street lights; Community amenities: clubhouse, fitness center, pool, spa/hot tub, golf course, putting greens, tennis courts, pickleball, bocce court, restaurant, library, private membership

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener; Covered parking for 2 vehicles
• Security: Gated community with guard gate; Security gate; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; High speed internet available
• Home design: Single-story home; Tile roof; Block, concrete and stucco construction; Entry level: 1; South-facing; Resale property; Has attached property
• Construction: Built with block, concrete and stucco; Tile roof
• Exterior features: Screened lanai/porch; Porch; Courtyard; Sprinkler/irrigation (municipal source); Shutters (manual); Guest house attached; Community pool; Private road frontage on a privately maintained road; North exposure; Zero lot line

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Self-cleaning oven; Microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator with ice maker; Icemaker; Pantry; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms include split-bedroom layout
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms with dual sinks, separate shower and bathtub
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric); Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Arched windows with shutters and window coverings; High ceilings; Living/dining room; Eat-in kitchen; Pantry; Walk-in closet(s); Dual sinks; Separate shower and bathtub; Window treatments; High speed internet; Split bedrooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Inside laundry with laundry tub

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $312k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($27k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $312k).
• Recommended offer: $274k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.9% vs local median 1.7% in Bonita Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#428 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: schools C-, cost of living C-, health & safety D.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.6%/yr); 835 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $6,029/mo this rent would consume 79% of the median local household income ($91k/yr) (locally 976% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $87k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 284 days — a 12% lower offer ($274k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 5→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $274,472 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 284 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.93% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.65%
• DSCR: 2.36
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $421,670
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12735 Maiden Cane Ln	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,493 (+0%)	16mo	$420,000	$281	81
12816 Maiden Cane Ln	0.04mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,396 (-6%)	4mo	$395,500	$283	79
12780 Maiden Cane Ln	0.05mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,602 (+8%)	12mo	$440,000	$275	70
12637 Hunters Ridge Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,657 (+11%)	12mo	$495,000	$299	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.85×
• Total profit: $74,167
• Equity at exit: $46,505

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.07×
• Total profit: $180,526
• Equity at exit: $26,967

Cash invested: $87,332 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34135

• Rents YoY: -0.6%
• Active inventory: 835
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,029 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,636
• Tax from tax record: −$141 /mo · $1,696/yr
• Insurance: −$130
• HOA: −$626
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,266
• Net cashflow: $2,230

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,206

Max offer price $311,900

Occupancy floor 58%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,975
• Closing costs: $9,357
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12622 Hunters Ridge Dr Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1787	$7,500	$4.20	3d	1	0.23mi
12606 Fox Ridge Dr #7202 Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	3.0	1743	$2,400	$1.38	23d	1	0.32mi
28536 F B Fowler Ct Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1765	$6,500	$3.68	23d	1	0.33mi
12607 Fox Ridge Dr #4102 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1357	$2,000	$1.47	23d	1	0.36mi
13046 Amberley Ct Unit 602R Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1076	$5,500	$5.11	23d	1	0.49mi
13046 Amberley Ct Unit 602RA Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1076	$2,000	$1.86	23d	1	0.49mi
13050 Amberley Ct #708 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1204	$5,500	$4.57	23d	1	0.51mi
13060 Amberley Ct #809 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1204	$5,500	$4.57	23d	1	0.54mi
13070 Amberley Ct #902 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1076	$5,800	$5.39	23d	1	0.57mi
12080 Matera Ln #204 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1467	$7,500	$5.11	16d	1	0.76mi
13270 Sherburne Cir #2903 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1487	$6,000	$4.03	23d	1	0.77mi
13260 Sherburne Cir #2704 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1446	$6,500	$4.50	21d	1	0.79mi
13256 Sherburne Cir #2603 Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1576	$6,500	$4.12	23d	1	0.80mi
12040 Matera Ln #104 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1467	$7,500	$5.11	14d	1	0.83mi
13231 Sherburne Cir #1504 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1446	$6,500	$4.50	23d	1	0.84mi
11111 Corsia Trieste Way #204 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1551	$7,000	$4.51	23d	1	0.88mi
28436 Altessa Way #204 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1621	$9,000	$5.55	23d	1	0.89mi
12015 Matera Ln #102 Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1467	$7,500	$5.11	23d	1	0.89mi
12015 Matera Ln #101 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1467	$6,000	$4.09	23d	1	0.89mi
11091 Corsia Trieste Way #106 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1696	$6,000	$3.54	23d	1	0.94mi
27906 Radiant Ct Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.5	1638	$2,650	$1.62	14d	1	0.94mi
27906 Radiant Ct Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.5	1638	$2,650	$1.62	14d	1	0.94mi
27906 Radiant Ct Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.5	1637	$2,650	$1.62	3d	1	0.94mi
16352 Viansa Way #101 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1710	$8,000	$4.68	23d	1	1.00mi
27874 Radiant Ct Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.5	1657	$2,950	$1.78	21d	1	1.00mi
27874 Radiant Ct Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.5	1657	$2,790	$1.68	2d	1	1.00mi
16356 Viansa Way #101 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1710	$12,000	$7.02	14d	1	1.01mi
16348 Viansa Way #101 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1710	$7,000	$4.09	23d	1	1.01mi
13641 Worthington Way Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1140	$4,000	$3.51	3d	2	1.02mi
13641 Worthington Way Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1140	$4,150	$3.64	16d	2	1.02mi
12770 Bonita Vista Pl Bonita Springs, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1116	$3,454	$3.09	2d	70	1.02mi
13641 Worthington Way #1610 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1204	$5,799	$4.82	21d	1	1.03mi
13611 Worthington Way #1312 Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1312	$5,500	$4.19	23d	1	1.03mi
13520 Southampton Dr Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1642	$8,000	$4.87	23d	1	1.05mi
27825 Solis Grande Dr Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.5	1831	$2,500	$1.37	23d	1	1.09mi
11031 Corsia Trieste Way #203 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1603	$7,500	$4.68	3d	1	1.14mi
11021 Corsia Trieste Way #203 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1672	$8,000	$4.78	23d	1	1.17mi
13962 Southampton Dr #4404 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1446	$6,500	$4.50	23d	1	1.18mi
7000 Pinnacle Ln #1401 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1636	$8,500	$5.20	23d	1	1.24mi
6025 Pinnacle Ln Unit 1 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1633	$8,000	$4.90	23d	1	1.26mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $626 · $7,512/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-10
   price $311,900
3. 2026-02-10
   price $313,900
4. 2025-12-30
   price $319,990
5. 2025-11-21
   price $349,900
6. 2025-10-15
   price $355,000
7. 2025-07-12
   listed $370,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,696 · $141/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,589 · $216/mo
• Expected delta: +$893/yr (+$74/mo · 52.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 5 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $72,354
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,471
• − Property taxes: −$1,696
• − Insurance: −$1,560
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,788
• − Management: −$5,788
• − HOA: −$7,512
• − Depreciation: −$9,073
• Taxable income: $23,465
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$5,632
• After-tax cash flow: $21,133/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bonita Springs

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #428
• US rank: #7576

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bonita Springs, FL
• County: Lee County · 788,662 people
• City population: 64,727
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 48,252
• Household income: $91,380
• Rent vs Own: 17.7% rent · 82.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 976.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 13% Native American 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 21% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -188.86%
• Current HPI: 243.4153
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.61%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-15.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Pending — FORTMLS
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $311,900 FORTMLS
• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $313,900 FORTMLS
• 2025-12-30 Price Changed $319,990 FORTMLS
• 2025-11-21 Price Changed $349,900 FORTMLS
• 2025-10-15 Price Changed $355,000 FORTMLS
• 2025-07-12 Listed $370,000 FORTMLS

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,696 · +5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.