6371 Fm 49 · Gilmer, TX 75644

$205,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,559 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 104 Days on market

5.55 ac lot $131/sqft · 41% below area Est $347k · 41% under ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +9.3/30.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Opportunity awaits on 5.5 acres with an agricultural exemption in Harmony ISD! This property offers space, flexibility, and plenty of potential for the next owner. The main home features 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with a comfortable living area anchored by a brick fireplace with insert, creating a warm focal point for the home. Outside, the property continues to impress with a separate 1 bedroom, 1 bathroom guest house, ideal for extended family, visitors, or potential rental income. Additional features include a 2-car carport, small storage building, and a convenient circle drive for easy access and parking. With nearly 5 acres of land, there’s plenty of room for gardening, animals, or simply enjoying the extra space. The home does need some work but offers a great opportunity for buyers looking to add value and make it their own while enjoying the benefits of acreage living. Great potential, guest accommodations, and acreage in a desirable school district—don’t miss this chance to make it yours!

Key facts

• Gardening space
• 2 car carport
• Circle drive

Tags

• SEPARATE GUEST HOUSE
• 2 CAR CARPORT
• SMALL STORAGE BUILDING
• CIRCLE DRIVE
• NEARLY 5 ACRES
• GARDENING SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $205k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-149 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $179k (12.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $143k (30.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $143k (30.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 2.9% in Gilmer — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,257 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Harmony ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #224 of 826 in TX (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 207 active listings in the ZIP; 34 units permitted in Upshur County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $22k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Upshur County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 104 days — a 9% lower offer ($187k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 57% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $142,820 (30.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 104 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.42%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.11%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $347,350
• List price: $205,000
• Delta: -40.98%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.78×
• Total profit: $102,095
• Equity at exit: $184,680

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.37×
• Total profit: $307,988
• Equity at exit: $398,270

Cash invested: $57,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75644

• Home prices YoY: 10.0%
• Active inventory: 207
• Price-to-rent: 12.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,428 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax from tax record: −$117 /mo · $1,402/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$300
• Net cashflow: $-149

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,617

Max offer price $178,681

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,250
• Closing costs: $6,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $205,000 Active 104 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $205,000 Active 103 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $205,000 Active 102 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $205,000 Active 101 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $205,000 Active 99 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $205,000 Active 98 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $205,000 Active 95 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $205,000 Active 94 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $205,000 Active 93 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $205,000 Active 92 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $205,000 Active 89 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $205,000 Active 88 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $205,000 Active 87 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $205,000 Active 86 DOM
15. 2026-04-17
    price $205,000 1030-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1030 chars)

    Opportunity awaits on 5.5 acres with an agricultural exemption in Harmony ISD! This property offers space, flexibility, and plenty of potential for the next owner. The main home features 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with a comfortable living area anchored by a brick fireplace with insert, creating a warm focal point for the home. Outside, the property continues to impress with a separate 1 bedroom, 1 bathroom guest house, ideal for extended family, visitors, or potential rental income. Additional features include a 2-car carport, small storage building, and a convenient circle drive for easy access and parking. With nearly 5 acres of land, there’s plenty of room for gardening, animals, or simply enjoying the extra space. The home does need some work but offers a great opportunity for buyers looking to add value and make it their own while enjoying the benefits of acreage living. Great potential, guest accommodations, and acreage in a desirable school district—don’t miss this chance to make it yours!

16. 2026-03-06
    listed $215,000 Active 1030-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1030 chars)

    Opportunity awaits on 5.5 acres with an agricultural exemption in Harmony ISD! This property offers space, flexibility, and plenty of potential for the next owner. The main home features 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with a comfortable living area anchored by a brick fireplace with insert, creating a warm focal point for the home. Outside, the property continues to impress with a separate 1 bedroom, 1 bathroom guest house, ideal for extended family, visitors, or potential rental income. Additional features include a 2-car carport, small storage building, and a convenient circle drive for easy access and parking. With nearly 5 acres of land, there’s plenty of room for gardening, animals, or simply enjoying the extra space. The home does need some work but offers a great opportunity for buyers looking to add value and make it their own while enjoying the benefits of acreage living. Great potential, guest accommodations, and acreage in a desirable school district—don’t miss this chance to make it yours!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,402 · $117/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,752 · $313/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,350/yr (+$196/mo · 167.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 57% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,138
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,483
• − Property taxes: −$1,402
• − Insurance: −$1,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,371
• − Management: −$1,371
• − Depreciation: −$5,964
• Taxable loss: −$5,477
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,315
• After-tax cash flow: $-473/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harmony ISD
• NCES district ID: 4822560
• Math proficiency: 48% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,303
• Composite: 40.47/100
• National rank: #3721
• State rank: #224 of 826 in TX

Livability — Gilmer

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1257
• US rank: #21903

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,785

Population outlook (Upshur County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 42,771 people
• By 2030: 43,788 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 45,574 · +6.6%
• By 2050: 46,683 · +9.1%
• By 2075: 49,137 · +14.9%
• By 2100: 47,457 · +11.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 11% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Philippines
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Upshur

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+71.0) · D 14.2% · R 85.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.0pp toward R · 2008: -49.0pp · 2024: -71.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+71.0 2020: R+68.5 2016: R+68.0 2012: R+59.8 2008: R+49.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 27.46%
• Current HPI: 300.86
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $205,000 LAAR
• 2026-03-06 Listed $215,000 LAAR

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,402 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.