925 Cattlemens Row · Lockhart, TX 78644

$199,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 448 sqft · Other public records · 231 Days on market

Built 2012 1.99 ac lot ↓ 26% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath country home on 2 beautiful acres in Lockhart, TX. This versatile property is currently set up with two living areas, two kitchens, and two private entrances, ideal for use as a duplex, guest suite, or multi-generational living. Classified as a single-family home with the county but designed for flexibility and privacy. Features cherry hardwood floors, tin ceiling, wood-burning stove, window A/C units, tin roof, and a 162-ft well with extra filtration. Enjoy spacious porches with French doors, mature shade trees, fenced yards, and two large storage sheds perfect for equipment or animals. Plenty of room for pets, horses, or a hobby farm. Major systems have been updated, making this property move-in ready. Property will be delivered fully cleared out and vacant at closing, including all personal items and debris from the home and yard. Country living at its best! Just minutes from town.

Key facts

• Two kitchens
• Tin ceiling
• Two living areas

Tags

• TWO LIVING AREAS
• TWO KITCHENS
• TWO PRIVATE ENTRANCES
• CHERRY HARDWOOD FLOORS
• TIN CEILING
• WOOD BURNING STOVE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-255 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $155k (22.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $144k (28.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $144k (28.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.0% in Lockhart — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#535 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Lockhart ISD (town): math 27% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #657 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Navarro El (math 27% / reading 30%, grade F, #2,706 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 580 students, 72% FRL); Lockhart J H (math 22% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,301 of 1,662 statewide, top 79%, 1,433 students, 74% FRL); Lockhart H S (math 21% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,204 of 1,632 statewide, top 75%, 1,968 students, 69% FRL).
• Market conditions: 458 active listings in the ZIP; 529 units permitted in Caldwell County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Caldwell County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 231 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $143,527 (28.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 231 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.47%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-48,651
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.13×
• Total profit: $-63,208
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78644

• Home prices YoY: -29.4%
• Active inventory: 458
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,435 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$257 /mo · $3,086/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$301
• Net cashflow: $-255

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,759

Max offer price $154,875

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-142	-5% $-199	+0% $-255	+5% $-312	+10% $-369
Rent	-10% $-369	-5% $-312	+0% $-255	+5% $-199	+10% $-142
Rate	-1.0pp $-155	-0.5pp $-205	base $-255	+0.5pp $-307	+1.0pp $-360

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2025-12-30
   price $199,999 924-char remark

   Show marketing remark (924 chars)

   Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath country home on 2 beautiful acres in Lockhart, TX. This versatile property is currently set up with two living areas, two kitchens, and two private entrances, ideal for use as a duplex, guest suite, or multi-generational living. Classified as a single-family home with the county but designed for flexibility and privacy. Features cherry hardwood floors, tin ceiling, wood-burning stove, window A/C units, tin roof, and a 162-ft well with extra filtration. Enjoy spacious porches with French doors, mature shade trees, fenced yards, and two large storage sheds perfect for equipment or animals. Plenty of room for pets, horses, or a hobby farm. Major systems have been updated, making this property move-in ready. Property will be delivered fully cleared out and vacant at closing, including all personal items and debris from the home and yard. Country living at its best! Just minutes from town.

2. 2025-11-03
   price $225,000 924-char remark

   Show marketing remark (924 chars)

   Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath country home on 2 beautiful acres in Lockhart, TX. This versatile property is currently set up with two living areas, two kitchens, and two private entrances, ideal for use as a duplex, guest suite, or multi-generational living. Classified as a single-family home with the county but designed for flexibility and privacy. Features cherry hardwood floors, tin ceiling, wood-burning stove, window A/C units, tin roof, and a 162-ft well with extra filtration. Enjoy spacious porches with French doors, mature shade trees, fenced yards, and two large storage sheds perfect for equipment or animals. Plenty of room for pets, horses, or a hobby farm. Major systems have been updated, making this property move-in ready. Property will be delivered fully cleared out and vacant at closing, including all personal items and debris from the home and yard. Country living at its best! Just minutes from town.

3. 2025-10-07
   listed $271,000 Active 924-char remark

   Show marketing remark (924 chars)

   Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath country home on 2 beautiful acres in Lockhart, TX. This versatile property is currently set up with two living areas, two kitchens, and two private entrances, ideal for use as a duplex, guest suite, or multi-generational living. Classified as a single-family home with the county but designed for flexibility and privacy. Features cherry hardwood floors, tin ceiling, wood-burning stove, window A/C units, tin roof, and a 162-ft well with extra filtration. Enjoy spacious porches with French doors, mature shade trees, fenced yards, and two large storage sheds perfect for equipment or animals. Plenty of room for pets, horses, or a hobby farm. Major systems have been updated, making this property move-in ready. Property will be delivered fully cleared out and vacant at closing, including all personal items and debris from the home and yard. Country living at its best! Just minutes from town.

4. 2018-05-24
   soldstatus
5. 2007-03-01
   soldstatus
6. 2005-04-15
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,086 · $257/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,660 · $305/mo
• Expected delta: +$574/yr (+$48/mo · 18.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,223
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$3,086
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,378
• − Management: −$1,378
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$6,639
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,593
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,472/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lockhart ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827870
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,868
• Composite: 24.44/100
• National rank: #7674
• State rank: #657 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lockhart

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #535
• US rank: #10453

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Caldwell County · 25,195 people
• City population: 22,348
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 22,348
• Household income: $74,709
• Rent vs Own: 25.1% rent · 74.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 324.0

Population outlook (Caldwell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,557 people
• By 2030: 49,673 · +6.7%
• By 2040: 55,827 · +19.9%
• By 2050: 61,832 · +32.8%
• By 2075: 77,212 · +65.8%
• By 2100: 89,225 · +91.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% White 39% Two or more races 23% Black 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 45% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 32%

Political lean MEDSL · Caldwell

• 2024 margin: R (+14.4) · D 42.2% · R 56.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.4pp toward R · 2008: -6.0pp · 2024: -14.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.4 2020: R+9.1 2016: R+15.8 2012: R+11.1 2008: R+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -99.62%
• Current HPI: 239.7906
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-26.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-30 Price Changed $199,999 HARMLS
• 2025-11-03 Price Changed $225,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-07 Listed $271,000 HARMLS
• 2018-05-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-03-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-04-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+15.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,086 · -4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.