2530 Smoke Passage St · Heartland, TX 75114

$209,549

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,474 sqft · Land · 23 Days on market

Built 2025 6,011 sqft lot $42/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Newlin Floorplan in the Watermill Collection at Eastland is designed for ultimate convenience and comfort, all on one level. This single-story home greets you with two bedrooms and a full-sized bathroom near the entry, perfect for family or guests. The heart of the home is the open-concept living area, where the kitchen, dining, and family room seamlessly flow together—ideal for gatherings and daily living. The owner’s suite is a private retreat, nestled in the back corner of the home. It features a separate bathroom and a spacious walk-in closet, offering both luxury and privacy. Experience the perfect blend of style and practicality with the Whitton II Floorplan at Eastland.

Key facts

• 6,011 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2025

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $162 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $196k (6.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $196k (6.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 4.6% in Heartland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Crandall ISD (rural): math 36% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #351 of 826 in TX (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: W A Martin El (math 41% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,883 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 644 students, 71% FRL); Crandall Middle (math 38% / reading 42%, grade F, #646 of 1,662 statewide, top 40%, 983 students, 60% FRL); Crandall H S (math 33% / reading 53%, grade F, #713 of 1,632 statewide, top 44%, 1,707 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools average 62% FRL vs 41% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 802 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($206k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $196,131 (6.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.31%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-23,668
• Equity at exit: $31,244

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-7,382
• Equity at exit: $18,118

Cash invested: $58,674 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75114

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Active inventory: 802
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,961 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,099
• Tax from tax record: −$160 /mo · $1,915/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$412
• Net cashflow: $162

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,757

Max offer price $209,549

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $280	-5% $221	+0% $162	+5% $102	+10% $43
Rent	-10% $7	-5% $84	+0% $162	+5% $239	+10% $317
Rate	-1.0pp $267	-0.5pp $215	base $162	+0.5pp $107	+1.0pp $52

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,387
• Closing costs: $6,286
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1799 Courage Crk Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1260	$1,800	$1.43	45d	1	0.19mi
1793 Courage Crk Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,769	$1.06	0d	1	0.21mi
1789 Courage Crk Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,739	$1.04	4d	1	0.22mi
1507 Trick Riding Way Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1850	$1,900	$1.03	26d	1	0.24mi
1507 Trick Riding Way Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1850	$1,900	$1.03	0d	1	0.24mi
2511 Cornado Way Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1239	$1,799	$1.45	26d	1	0.25mi
2311 Alcantara Ave Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1220	$1,740	$1.43	0d	1	0.26mi
2294 Great Belt Blvd Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,815	$1.43	26d	1	0.28mi
2603 Khaju Grv Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,699	$1.34	4d	1	0.28mi
2504 Cornado Way Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,799	$1.25	45d	1	0.29mi
2302 Great Belt Blvd Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,650	$1.30	4d	1	0.29mi
2908 Hearts Trl Crandall, TX	3.0	3.0	1266	$1,750	$1.38	45d	1	0.30mi
2306 Great Belt Blvd Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,695	$1.34	45d	1	0.30mi
2510 Flight Trl Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,845	$1.11	26d	1	0.30mi
2513 Flight Trl Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,825	$1.07	26d	1	0.32mi
2521 Flight Trl Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,825	$1.07	26d	1	0.36mi
2624 Bartlett St Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,825	$1.07	26d	1	0.36mi
2409 Fleming Dr Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,845	$1.11	26d	1	0.37mi
2739 Bronte Blvd Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,825	$1.07	26d	1	0.37mi
3072 Wallace Wells Ct Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1017	$1,500	$1.47	26d	1	0.38mi
1930 Wild Orchard Ln Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,865	$1.32	45d	1	0.38mi
2746 Bronte Blvd Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,825	$1.07	26d	1	0.39mi
2745 Bronte Blvd Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,845	$1.11	26d	1	0.40mi
3315 Beckwith Way Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,685	$1.17	45d	1	0.52mi
1209 Kings Pl Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1356	$1,975	$1.46	3d	1	0.57mi
3007 Wallace Wells Ct Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,950	$1.35	45d	1	0.58mi
2826 Hudson Dr Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1639	$2,400	$1.46	8d	1	0.63mi
2991 Wallace Wells Ct Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,895	$1.50	45d	1	0.64mi
3352 Beckwith Way Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,750	$1.38	0d	1	0.64mi
1609 Duke Dr Crandall, TX	2.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1614	$2,242	$1.39	0d	1	0.65mi
3121 Helix Bay Dr Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,675	$1.16	45d	1	0.66mi
2973 Wallace Wells Ct Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,665	$1.16	45d	1	0.68mi
3103 Helix Bay Dr Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,729	$1.20	4d	1	0.69mi
3101 Helix Bay Dr Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,745	$1.38	26d	1	0.70mi
2961 Wallace Wells Ct Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,855	$1.47	3d	1	0.72mi
3104 Helix Bay Dr Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,675	$1.32	26d	1	0.72mi
2960 Wallace Wells Ct Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$2,000	$1.39	45d	1	0.73mi
4001 Fairmont Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1545	$2,000	$1.29	45d	1	0.81mi
3028 Willow Wood Ct Crandall, TX	3.0	2.5	1764	$2,600	$1.47	45d	1	0.88mi
2919 Cascade Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1481	$2,200	$1.49	45d	1	0.90mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $42 · $504/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-03-08
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-06
   price $209,549
3. 2026-03-04
   price $212,549
4. 2026-02-13
   listed $215,999 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,915 · $160/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,835 · $320/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,920/yr (+$160/mo · 100.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,536
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,738
• − Property taxes: −$1,915
• − Insurance: −$1,048
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,883
• − Management: −$1,883
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$6,096
• Taxable loss: −$1,531
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$367
• After-tax cash flow: $2,307/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crandall ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815510
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $70,076
• Composite: 35.57/100
• National rank: #4901
• State rank: #351 of 826 in TX

Livability — Heartland

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Heartland, TX
• County: Kaufman County · 122,338 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,333
• Household income: $88,013
• Rent vs Own: 12.7% rent · 87.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 33.0

Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 14% Black 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 27% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.61%
• Current HPI: 196.4773
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-08 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $209,549 NTREIS
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $212,549 NTREIS
• 2026-02-13 Listed $215,999 NTREIS

Property tax history

-5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,915 · -5.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.