134 Lake Hazel Dr · Winter Haven, FL 33884

$90,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,352 sqft · Manufactured public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1984 5,001 sqft lot $281/mo HOA · 15% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. 2-Bedroom, 2-Bathroom Mobile Home in a 55+ Community of ORANGE MANOR WEST-NO LOT RENT!-This spacious 1,352 sq. ft. double wide mobile home located in a 55+ community that offers a wealth of amenities for an active lifestyle. BRAND NEW A/C! The living room features sliding glass doors that open to a front enclosed Florida room, perfect for enjoying the view of your front yard. The kitchen comes fully equipped with all appliances and a separate dining room for your meals. BRAND NEW REFRIGERATOR AND RANGE. The main bedroom boasts an en-suite bathroom and a walk-in closet. The second bedroom is adjacent to a recently updated bathroom. Inside laund

Key facts

• Brand new a/c
• Walk-in closet
• En-suite bathroom

Tags

• BRAND NEW A/C
• FRONT ENCLOSED FLORIDA ROOM
• FULLY EQUIPPED KITCHEN
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• RECENTLY UPDATED BATHROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Total annual fees: $3,378
• HOA & community: Monthly HOA fee of $281.50; Association amenities: clubhouse, pool, basketball court, shuffleboard court, gated community; Senior community; Pets not allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Other utilities
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; One level; Home faces south
• Construction: Built-up and shingle roof; Other construction materials
• Exterior features: Enclosed front porch; Sliding doors; Storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Range hood; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Built-in features; Ceiling fans; Walk-in closets; 6 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Inside laundry room; Crawlspace foundation

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $163 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $89k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#291 in FL, #4,898 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools C-, employment C-, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 680 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($89k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $88,650 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.09%
• DSCR: 2.25
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.9% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-5,786
• Equity at exit: $13,419

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $1,928
• Equity at exit: $7,782

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33884

• Home prices YoY: -34.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 680
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,895 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax from tax record: −$117 /mo · $1,399/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$281
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$398
• Net cashflow: $163

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,688

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3905 Giorgio Dr Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1707	$2,050	$1.20	3d	1	0.66mi
3889 Giorgio Dr Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1483	$2,000	$1.35	23d	1	0.66mi
3916 Giorgio Dr Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,695	$1.32	3d	1	0.69mi
3912 Giorgio Dr Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1483	$1,900	$1.28	21d	1	0.69mi
4981 Kaia Ave Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1269	$1,875	$1.48	19d	1	0.71mi
4973 Kaia Ave Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1483	$1,900	$1.28	3d	1	0.72mi
670 Eagle Landing Blvd Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1480	$1,999	$1.35	3d	1	0.75mi
3436 Costello Cir Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1504	$1,750	$1.16	3d	1	0.85mi
4458 Rapallo Ave Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.5	1568	$2,000	$1.28	23d	1	1.02mi
3063 Laurel Oak Ln Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1269	$1,695	$1.34	14d	1	1.12mi
3063 Laurel Oak Ln Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1269	$1,695	$1.34	23d	1	1.12mi
109 Solis Dr Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1625	$2,086	$1.28	3d	1	1.13mi
1734 Carnostie Rd Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1418	$2,050	$1.45	23d	1	1.25mi
1735 Carnostie Rd Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1515	$1,900	$1.25	23d	1	1.26mi
1002 Corso Dr Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1545	$1,945	$1.26	23d	1	1.37mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $281 · $3,372/yr

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $90,000 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $90,000 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $90,000 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $90,000 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $90,000 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $90,000 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $90,000 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $90,000 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $90,000 Active 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $90,000 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $90,000 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $90,000 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $90,000 Active 3 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $90,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,399 · $117/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,399 · $117/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone AE · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,738
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$1,399
• − Insurance: −$5,568
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,819
• − Management: −$1,819
• − HOA: −$3,372
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $1,102
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$264
• After-tax cash flow: $1,696/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Winter Haven

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #291
• US rank: #4898

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 121,740
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 37,561
• Household income: $70,443
• Rent vs Own: 25.7% rent · 74.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 949.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 19% Black 14% Two or more races 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Hispanic 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 12% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -134.69%
• Current HPI: 260.1421
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.90%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+11.8% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $90,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-23 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-17 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-05 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-14 Price Changed $99,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-13 Price Changed $115,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-13 Price Changed $99,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-27 Price Changed $115,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-18 Listed $125,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-09 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-07 Price Changed $96,950 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-10 Price Changed $99,099 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-26 Price Changed $109,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-14 Listed $115,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-05-05 Sold (Public Records) $80,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+18.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,399 · +279.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.