Is 143 Lark Meadow Dr in Bridgeport, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it F with a 3.6% cap rate and $-479/mo modeled cash flow at a $209,999 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 143 Lark Meadow Dr?

The modeled cap rate is 3.6% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $1,230/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

F Composite 30.95

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +8.5/15.0
Cash flow +5.2/30.0
Appreciation +4.8/10.0
Schools +4.4/10.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
Livability +3.4/5.0
Rent growth +2.5/5.0
1% rule +0.9/10.0
DSCR +0.0/10.0
Manufactured-home adj. -2.7

$209,999

143 Lark Meadow Dr · Bridgeport, TX 76426

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,475 sqft · Manufactured · 3 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 2026 Good condition 8,712 sqft lot $142/sqft · at area comps Est $215k · at est.

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

HOME FOR THE HOLIDAYS NEAR LAKE BRIDGEPORT! Brand-new construction, NO HOA, and a Holiday Buyer Bonus! Unwrap the perfect gift this season with this beautiful 4-bedroom, 2-bath home on nearly a quarter acre, just minutes from Lake Bridgeport. Inside, a spacious, open-concept layout makes it easy to host family and friends, whether it's a holiday dinner or a cozy movie night. The stylish kitchen comes equipped with a new refrigerator, range, and dishwasher, ready for all your favorite seasonal recipes. Generous living areas offer room for everyone, and the private primary suite provides a relaxing retreat with its own en-suite bath.

Key facts

New construction
Smart panel skirting
Stylish kitchen

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $210k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-479 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $141k (33.0% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $123k (41.4% below list).
Recommended offer: $123k (41.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

Location reads 68/100 on livability (#472 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
Jacksboro ISD (town): math 42% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #337 of 826 in TX (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Jacksboro El (math 39% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,744 of 4,322 statewide, top 41%, 497 students, 68% FRL); Jacksboro Middle (math 44% / reading 40%, grade D-, #572 of 1,662 statewide, top 36%, 251 students, 68% FRL); Jacksboro H S (math 47% / reading 57%, grade D+, #447 of 1,632 statewide, top 29%, 335 students, 68% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 44% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: 557 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 36d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 71% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 460 units permitted in Wise County in 2024 (243 in 5+ unit buildings).
This rent is only 16% of the median local income ($92k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-0.8%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Wise County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,038 (41.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.59% ✗
Cap rate: 3.55%
Cash-on-cash: -9.78%
DSCR: 0.56
GRM: 14.2

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $215,000
List price: $209,999
Delta: -2.33%
Verdict: FAIR
Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
147 Lark Meadow Dr	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,493 (+1%)	5mo	$215,000	$144	94
313 Lark Meadow Dr	0.09mi	4/2.0	1,680 (+14%)	0mo	$231,750	$138	72
408 Sleepy Meadow Dr	0.28mi	4/2.0	1,345 (-9%)	8mo	$214,000	$159	65
Wild Oak Ct	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,497 (+2%)	23mo	$370,000	$247	48
217 Shady Oaks Dr	1.20mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,591 (+8%)	6mo	$269,000	$169	42
123 Jim Walter Dr	1.42mi	4/2.0	1,737 (+18%)	9mo	$305,000	$176	33
146 Hauser Pl	0.93mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,812 (+23%)	3mo	$335,000	$185	32
112 Hogan Pl	0.98mi	4/2.0	1,712 (+16%)	10mo	$295,000	$172	31
192 Johnston Ln	0.99mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,769 (+20%)	5mo	$335,000	$189	31
115 Jim Walters Dr	1.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,591 (+8%)	21mo	$299,900	$188	29
131 Jim Walters Dr	1.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,821 (+24%)	15mo	$299,900	$165	22
396 Jim Walter Dr	1.16mi	4/2.5	1,712 (+16%)	24mo	$329,899	$193	18

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.82% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -17.6%
Equity multiple: 0.24×
Total profit: $-44,610
Equity at exit: $52,507

10-year hold

IRR: -11.0%
Equity multiple: -0.01×
Total profit: $-59,195
Equity at exit: $56,699

Cash invested: $58,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 6 active · 3 under contract
Months of supply: 18.0 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $199,900 ($140/sqft)
Median days on market: 42 d
This list price: 83% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +4.2% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76426

Home prices YoY: -0.2%
Active inventory: 557
Price-to-rent: 14.2×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $1,230 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
Tax est. 1.5%: −$262 /mo · $3,150/yr
Insurance: −$87
HOA: −$0
Lot rent leased land?: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$258
Net cashflow: $-479

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,837

Max offer price $140,650

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-334	-5% $-407	+0% $-479	+5% $-552	+10% $-624
Rent	-10% $-576	-5% $-528	+0% $-479	+5% $-431	+10% $-382
Rate	-1.0pp $-374	-0.5pp $-426	base $-479	+0.5pp $-534	+1.0pp $-589

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $52,500
Closing costs: $6,300
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
260 Lark Meadow Dr Unit A Bridgeport, TX	3.0	2.0	900	$1,050	$1.17	33d	1	0.04mi
260 Lark Meadow Dr Unit A Bridgeport, TX	3.0	2.0	900	$1,100	$1.22	57d	1	0.04mi
10915 Shady Oaks Dr Runaway Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1488	$1,398	$0.94	130d	1	0.07mi
156 Bridlewood Ln Bridgeport, TX	3.0	2.0	1098	$1,395	$1.27	63d	1	0.27mi
10733 Shady Oaks Dr Runaway Bay, TX	3.0	1.0	1058	$1,517	$1.43	0d	1	0.27mi
138 Greenbriar Ct Bridgeport, TX	3.0	2.0	1680	$1,997	$1.19	35d	1	0.33mi
205 Shady Oaks Dr Unit Labs Runaway Bay, TX	4.0	2.0	1753	$2,200	$1.25	0d	1	1.29mi

Property features AI

Finance

HOA & community: No association

Exterior

Parking: DrivewayGravel parking
Security: Smoke detectors
Utilities: City sewerCity waterCo-op electricElectricity available
Home design: Manufactured homeOne story
Construction: Built in 2026Composition roofPillar/post/pier foundationOther construction materials
Exterior features: Covered deckCovered porchFew treesInterior lot

Interior

Kitchen: Kitchen islandDishwasher, electric range, refrigerator
Bedrooms: Four bedrooms, all on the first floor
Flooring: Laminate flooring
Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
Heating & cooling: Central electric heatingCentral air conditioning
Interior features: Built-in featuresDecorative lightingOpen floor planWalk-in closetTwo living areasOne dining areaSeven rooms
Laundry & utility: Utility room with space for a freezer

Listing history 50 events

2026-11-08

days on market $209,999 Active 3 DOM
2026-11-07

days on market $209,999 Active 2 DOM
2026-11-06

days on marketlisting id $209,999 Active 1 DOM
2026-11-05

days on market $209,999 Active 141 DOM
2026-11-04

days on market $209,999 Active 140 DOM
2026-11-02

days on market $209,999 Active 138 DOM
2026-11-01

days on market $209,999 Active 137 DOM
2026-10-31

days on market $209,999 Active 136 DOM
2026-10-30

days on market $209,999 Active 135 DOM
2026-10-29

days on market $209,999 Active 134 DOM
2026-10-28

days on market $209,999 Active 133 DOM
2026-10-27

days on market $209,999 Active 132 DOM
2026-10-26

days on market $209,999 Active 131 DOM
2026-10-26

days on market $209,999 Active 130 DOM
2026-10-24

days on market $209,999 Active 129 DOM
2026-10-23

days on market $209,999 Active 128 DOM
2026-10-22

days on market $209,999 Active 127 DOM
2026-10-21

days on market $209,999 Active 126 DOM
2026-10-20

days on market $209,999 Active 125 DOM
2026-10-19

days on market $209,999 Active 124 DOM
2026-10-18

days on market $209,999 Active 123 DOM
2026-10-17

days on market $209,999 Active 122 DOM
2026-10-16

days on market $209,999 Active 121 DOM
2026-10-15

days on market $209,999 Active 120 DOM
2026-10-14

days on market $209,999 Active 119 DOM
2026-10-13

days on market $209,999 Active 118 DOM
2026-10-12

days on market $209,999 Active 117 DOM
2026-10-11

days on market $209,999 Active 116 DOM
2026-10-10

days on market $209,999 Active 115 DOM
2026-10-09

days on market $209,999 Active 114 DOM
2026-10-08

days on market $209,999 Active 113 DOM
2026-10-07

days on market $209,999 Active 112 DOM
2026-10-06

days on market $209,999 Active 111 DOM
2026-10-05

days on market $209,999 Active 110 DOM
2026-10-04

days on market $209,999 Active 109 DOM
2026-10-03

days on market $209,999 Active 108 DOM
2026-10-02

days on market $209,999 Active 107 DOM
2026-10-01

days on market $209,999 Active 106 DOM
2026-09-30

days on market $209,999 Active 105 DOM
2026-09-29

days on market $209,999 Active 104 DOM
2026-09-28

days on market $209,999 Active 103 DOM
2026-09-27

days on market $209,999 Active 102 DOM
2026-09-26

days on market $209,999 Active 101 DOM
2026-09-25

days on market $209,999 Active 100 DOM
2026-09-24

days on market $209,999 Active 99 DOM
2026-09-23

days on market $209,999 Active 98 DOM
2026-09-22

days on market $209,999 Active 97 DOM
2026-09-21

days on market $209,999 Active 96 DOM
2026-09-20

days on market $209,999 Active 95 DOM
2026-09-19

days on market $209,999 Active 94 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 18% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $14,765
− Mortgage interest: −$11,763
− Property taxes: −$3,150
− Insurance: −$1,050
− Repairs & maintenance: −$1,181
− Management: −$1,181
− Depreciation: −$6,109
Taxable loss: −$9,670

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,321
After-tax cash flow: $-3,430/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This brand-new 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offers a spacious, open-concept floor plan with modern amenities and a beautiful location. The home is move-in ready with no visible repairs or maintenance needed.

Value-add opportunities

Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and outdoor living space ↑
Both Painting exterior — Fresh paint can improve curb appeal and home value ↑
Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Enhances curb appeal and outdoor living space ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 44/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Jacksboro El F TX #1,744/4,322 Nat'l #21,283/41,679 Middle Jacksboro Middle D- TX #572/1,662 Nat'l #5,398/14,009 High Jacksboro H S D+ TX #447/1,632 Nat'l #5,016/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Jacksboro ISD
NCES district ID: 4824530
Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -3.00%
Reading proficiency: 42% ▬ 0.00%
Median HH income: $47,739
Composite: 35.94/100
National rank: #4802
State rank: #337 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 68/100

Livability — Bridgeport

Score: 68/100
State rank: #472
US rank: #9507

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Wise County · 71,620 people
Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
Population (ZIP): 11,632
Household income: $92,130
Rent vs Own: 25.0% rent · 75.0% own
Severe rent burden: 3% of renters

Population outlook (Wise County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 71,620 people
By 2030: 75,858 · +5.9%
By 2040: 83,908 · +17.2%
By 2050: 90,717 · +26.7%
By 2075: 107,583 · +50.2%
By 2100: 114,996 · +60.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Majority White (60%)
Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 9% Black 2% Asian 1% Native American 1%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31%
Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 27%

Political lean MEDSL · Wise

2024 margin: Solid R (+70.0) · D 14.7% · R 84.7%
2008→2024 swing: -14.3pp toward R · 2008: -55.7pp · 2024: -70.0pp
All cycles: 2024: R+70.0 2020: R+68.2 2016: R+69.9 2012: R+67.5 2008: R+55.7

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -0.82%
Current HPI: 417.89
Rent YoY: —
Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

2026-11-04 Listed $209,999 NTREIS
2026-11-04 Listing Removed — NTREIS
2026-06-17 Listed $209,999 NTREIS

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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