143 Lark Meadow Dr · Runaway Bay, TX 76426

$209,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,475 sqft · Manufactured · 4 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 8,712 sqft lot Est $235k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.2/15.0
• Cash flow +10.8/30.0
• Appreciation +4.6/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this brand-new 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offering comfort, quality construction, and an unbeatable location just minutes from beautiful Lake Bridgeport. Situated on almost a quarter acre. Step inside to discover a spacious, open-concept floor plan designed for both everyday living and entertaining. The home features a stylish kitchen (includes a new dishwasher, refrigerator, and range), generous living areas, and a private primary suite with an en-suite bath. Enjoy outdoor living from the inviting covered front deck, perfect for morning coffee or evening relaxation, along with a rear deck that offers additional space for grilling, gathering, and enjoying the outdoors. Property

Key facts

• Smart panel skirting
• Stylish kitchen
• Covered front deck

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• STYLISH KITCHEN
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• COVERED FRONT DECK
• REAR DECK
• SMART PANEL SKIRTING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Builder special listing condition; Possession at closing/funding; Exclusions: signs, locks, temporary watering system, temporary security system
• Financial info: Accepts Cash, Conventional, FHA, USDA loan, VA loan; No second mortgage
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Gravel parking
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Co-op electric; Electricity available; Outside city limits / unincorporated area
• Home design: Manufactured home; One level; Property attached
• Construction: Composition roof; Other construction materials; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built in 2026 (new construction - complete)
• Exterior features: Covered deck; Covered front and rear porches; Patio; Deck; Front porch; Rear porch; Acreage lot with few trees; Interior lot; Easements for utilities

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Refrigerator; Kitchen island
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on level 1 with ensuite bath and walk-in closet; Three additional bedrooms on level 1
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Built-in features; Decorative lighting; Kitchen island; Walk-in closet(s); Other
• Laundry & utility: Full-size washer/dryer area; Electric dryer hookup; Utility room; Utility room with space for a freezer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $210k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-95 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $196k (6.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $172k (18.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $172k (18.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 2.8% in Runaway Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#491 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Jacksboro ISD (town): math 42% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #337 of 826 in TX (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Jacksboro El (math 39% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,744 of 4,322 statewide, top 41%, 497 students, 68% FRL); Jacksboro Middle (math 44% / reading 40%, grade D-, #572 of 1,662 statewide, top 36%, 251 students, 68% FRL); Jacksboro H S (math 47% / reading 57%, grade D+, #447 of 1,632 statewide, top 29%, 335 students, 68% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 44% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 340 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 460 units permitted in Wise County in 2024 (243 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.8%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wise County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $171,726 (18.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.75%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.93%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $234,525
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
147 Lark Meadow Dr	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,493 (+1%)	0mo	$215,000	$144	98
408 Sleepy Meadow Dr	0.28mi	4/2.0	1,345 (-9%)	4mo	$214,000	$159	69

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.82% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-20,105
• Equity at exit: $52,507

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-6,282
• Equity at exit: $56,699

Cash invested: $58,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76426

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 340
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,717 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$262 /mo · $3,150/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$361
• Net cashflow: $-95

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,837

Max offer price $196,307

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $51	-5% $-22	+0% $-95	+5% $-167	+10% $-240
Rent	-10% $-230	-5% $-162	+0% $-95	+5% $-27	+10% $41
Rate	-1.0pp $11	-0.5pp $-41	base $-95	+0.5pp $-149	+1.0pp $-204

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,500
• Closing costs: $6,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10915 Shady Oaks Dr Runaway Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1488	$1,398	$0.94	0d	1	0.07mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $209,999 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   remarks 699-char remark
3. 2026-06-17
   listed $209,999 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 18% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,607
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,763
• − Property taxes: −$3,150
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,649
• − Management: −$1,649
• − Depreciation: −$6,109
• Taxable loss: −$4,762
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,143
• After-tax cash flow: $7/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This brand-new 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offers a spacious, open-concept floor plan with modern amenities and a beautiful location. The home is move-in ready with no visible repairs or maintenance needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and outdoor living space
• Both Painting exterior — Fresh paint can improve curb appeal and home value
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Enhances curb appeal and outdoor living space

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and outdoor living space ↑
• Both Painting exterior — Fresh paint can improve curb appeal and home value ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Enhances curb appeal and outdoor living space ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jacksboro ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824530
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $47,739
• Composite: 35.94/100
• National rank: #4802
• State rank: #337 of 826 in TX

Livability — Runaway Bay

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #491
• US rank: #9730

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Wise County · 49,037 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 11,632
• Household income: $92,130
• Rent vs Own: 25.0% rent · 75.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 74.0

Population outlook (Wise County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 71,620 people
• By 2030: 75,858 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 83,908 · +17.2%
• By 2050: 90,717 · +26.7%
• By 2075: 107,583 · +50.2%
• By 2100: 114,996 · +60.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 9% Black 2% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 27%

Political lean MEDSL · Wise

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+70.0) · D 14.7% · R 84.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.3pp toward R · 2008: -55.7pp · 2024: -70.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+70.0 2020: R+68.2 2016: R+69.9 2012: R+67.5 2008: R+55.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.82%
• Current HPI: 417.89
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $209,999 NTREIS