Is 143 Lark Meadow Dr in Bridgeport, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it F with a 3.3% cap rate and $-524/mo modeled cash flow at a $209,999 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 143 Lark Meadow Dr?

The modeled cap rate is 3.3% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $1,174/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

F Composite 30.18

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +8.4/15.0
Appreciation +4.8/10.0
Cash flow +4.7/30.0
Schools +4.4/10.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
Livability +3.4/5.0
Rent growth +2.5/5.0
1% rule +0.6/10.0
DSCR +0.0/10.0
Manufactured-home adj. -2.6

$209,999

143 Lark Meadow Dr · Bridgeport, TX 76426

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,475 sqft · Manufactured · 99 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 2026 Good condition 8,712 sqft lot $142/sqft · at area comps Est $214k · at est.

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this brand-new 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offering comfort, quality construction, and an unbeatable location just minutes from beautiful Lake Bridgeport. Situated on almost a quarter acre. Step inside to discover a spacious, open-concept floor plan designed for both everyday living and entertaining. The home features a stylish kitchen (includes a new dishwasher, refrigerator, and range), generous living areas, and a private primary suite with an en-suite bath. Enjoy outdoor living from the inviting covered front deck, perfect for morning coffee or evening relaxation, along with a rear deck that offers additional space for grilling, gathering, and enjoying the outdoors.

Key facts

Smart panel skirting
Stylish kitchen
Covered front deck

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $210k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-524 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $134k (36.1% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $117k (44.1% below list).
Recommended offer: $117k (44.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

Location reads 68/100 on livability (#472 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
Jacksboro ISD (town): math 42% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #337 of 826 in TX (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Jacksboro El (math 39% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,744 of 4,322 statewide, top 41%, 497 students, 68% FRL); Jacksboro Middle (math 44% / reading 40%, grade D-, #572 of 1,662 statewide, top 36%, 251 students, 68% FRL); Jacksboro H S (math 47% / reading 57%, grade D+, #447 of 1,632 statewide, top 29%, 335 students, 68% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 44% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: 482 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 460 units permitted in Wise County in 2024 (243 in 5+ unit buildings).
This rent is only 15% of the median local income ($92k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-0.8%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Wise County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($191k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $117,427 (44.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 44% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.56% ✗
Cap rate: 3.30%
Cash-on-cash: -10.69%
DSCR: 0.52
GRM: 14.9

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $214,500
List price: $209,999
Delta: -2.10%
Verdict: FAIR
Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
147 Lark Meadow Dr	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,493 (+1%)	4mo	$215,000	$144	95
408 Sleepy Meadow Dr	0.28mi	4/2.0	1,345 (-9%)	7mo	$214,000	$159	66
Wild Oak Ct	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,497 (+2%)	22mo	$370,000	$247	50
217 Shady Oaks Dr	1.20mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,591 (+8%)	4mo	$269,000	$169	44
123 Jim Walter Dr	1.42mi	4/2.0	1,737 (+18%)	7mo	$305,000	$176	34
146 Hauser Pl	0.93mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,812 (+23%)	2mo	$335,000	$185	34
112 Hogan Pl	0.98mi	4/2.0	1,712 (+16%)	9mo	$295,000	$172	32
192 Johnston Ln	0.99mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,769 (+20%)	3mo	$335,000	$189	32
115 Jim Walters Dr	1.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,591 (+8%)	20mo	$299,900	$188	30
131 Jim Walters Dr	1.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,821 (+24%)	14mo	$299,900	$165	24
396 Jim Walter Dr	1.16mi	4/2.5	1,712 (+16%)	23mo	$329,899	$193	19
—	1.49mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,192 (-19%)	23mo	$232,000	$195	14

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.82% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -18.8%
Equity multiple: 0.19×
Total profit: $-47,434
Equity at exit: $52,507

10-year hold

IRR: -12.2%
Equity multiple: -0.11×
Total profit: $-65,292
Equity at exit: $56,699

Cash invested: $58,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 7 active · 2 under contract
Months of supply: 42.0 mo (2%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $199,900 ($139/sqft)
Median days on market: 37 d
This list price: 86% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +4.6% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76426

Home prices YoY: -0.2%
Active inventory: 482
Price-to-rent: 14.9×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $1,174 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
Tax est. 1.5%: −$262 /mo · $3,150/yr
Insurance: −$87
HOA: −$0
Lot rent leased land?: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$247
Net cashflow: $-524

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,837

Max offer price $134,236

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-378	-5% $-451	+0% $-524	+5% $-596	+10% $-669
Rent	-10% $-616	-5% $-570	+0% $-524	+5% $-477	+10% $-431
Rate	-1.0pp $-418	-0.5pp $-470	base $-524	+0.5pp $-578	+1.0pp $-633

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $52,500
Closing costs: $6,300
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
260 Lark Meadow Dr Unit A Bridgeport, TX	3.0	2.0	900	$1,100	$1.22	12d	1	0.04mi
260 Lark Meadow Dr Unit A Bridgeport, TX	3.0	2.0	900	$1,075	$1.19	0d	1	0.04mi
10915 Shady Oaks Dr Runaway Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1488	$1,398	$0.94	85d	1	0.07mi
156 Bridlewood Ln Bridgeport, TX	3.0	2.0	1098	$1,395	$1.27	18d	1	0.27mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other: Builder special listing conditionPossession at closing/fundingExclusions: signs, locks, temporary watering system, temporary security system
Financial info: Accepts Cash, Conventional, FHA, USDA loan, VA loanNo second mortgage
HOA & community: No association

Exterior

Parking: DrivewayGravel parking
Security: Smoke detector(s)
Utilities: City waterCity sewerCo-op electricElectricity availableOutside city limits / unincorporated area
Home design: Manufactured homeOne levelProperty attached
Construction: Composition roofOther construction materialsPillar/post/pier foundationBuilt in 2026 (new construction - complete)
Exterior features: Covered deckCovered front and rear porchesPatioDeckFront porchRear porchAcreage lot with few treesInterior lotEasements for utilities

Interior

Kitchen: DishwasherElectric rangeRefrigeratorKitchen island
Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on level 1 with ensuite bath and walk-in closetThree additional bedrooms on level 1
Flooring: Laminate flooring
Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air conditioning (electric)
Interior features: Open floorplanBuilt-in featuresDecorative lightingKitchen islandWalk-in closet(s)Other
Laundry & utility: Full-size washer/dryer areaElectric dryer hookupUtility roomUtility room with space for a freezer

Listing history 50 events

2026-09-24

days on market $209,999 Active 99 DOM
2026-09-23

days on market $209,999 Active 98 DOM
2026-09-22

days on market $209,999 Active 97 DOM
2026-09-21

days on market $209,999 Active 96 DOM
2026-09-20

days on market $209,999 Active 95 DOM
2026-09-19

days on market $209,999 Active 94 DOM
2026-09-18

days on market $209,999 Active 93 DOM
2026-09-17

days on market $209,999 Active 92 DOM
2026-09-16

days on market $209,999 Active 91 DOM
2026-09-15

days on market $209,999 Active 90 DOM
2026-09-14

days on market $209,999 Active 89 DOM
2026-09-13

days on market $209,999 Active 88 DOM
2026-09-12

days on market $209,999 Active 87 DOM
2026-09-11

days on market $209,999 Active 86 DOM
2026-09-05

days on market $209,999 Active 80 DOM
2026-09-04

days on market $209,999 Active 79 DOM
2026-09-02

days on market $209,999 Active 77 DOM
2026-08-31

days on market $209,999 Active 75 DOM
2026-08-30

days on market $209,999 Active 74 DOM
2026-08-29

days on market $209,999 Active 73 DOM
2026-08-28

days on market $209,999 Active 72 DOM
2026-08-27

days on market $209,999 Active 71 DOM
2026-08-26

days on market $209,999 Active 70 DOM
2026-08-25

days on market $209,999 Active 69 DOM
2026-08-24

days on market $209,999 Active 68 DOM
2026-08-23

days on market $209,999 Active 67 DOM
2026-08-22

days on market $209,999 Active 66 DOM
2026-08-21

days on market $209,999 Active 65 DOM
2026-08-20

days on market $209,999 Active 64 DOM
2026-08-19

days on market $209,999 Active 63 DOM
2026-08-18

days on market $209,999 Active 62 DOM
2026-08-17

days on market $209,999 Active 61 DOM
2026-08-16

days on market $209,999 Active 60 DOM
2026-08-15

days on market $209,999 Active 59 DOM
2026-08-14

days on market $209,999 Active 58 DOM
2026-08-13

days on market $209,999 Active 57 DOM
2026-08-12

days on market $209,999 Active 56 DOM
2026-08-11

days on market $209,999 Active 55 DOM
2026-08-10

days on market $209,999 Active 54 DOM
2026-08-09

days on market $209,999 Active 53 DOM
2026-08-08

days on market $209,999 Active 52 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $209,999 Active 50 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $209,999 Active 49 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $209,999 Active 48 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $209,999 Active 47 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $209,999 Active 44 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $209,999 Active 42 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $209,999 Active 41 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $209,999 Active 39 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $209,999 Active 37 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 18% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $14,091
− Mortgage interest: −$11,763
− Property taxes: −$3,150
− Insurance: −$1,050
− Repairs & maintenance: −$1,127
− Management: −$1,127
− Depreciation: −$6,109
Taxable loss: −$10,236

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,457
After-tax cash flow: $-3,826/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This brand-new 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offers a spacious, open-concept floor plan with modern amenities and a beautiful location. The home is move-in ready with no visible repairs or maintenance needed.

Value-add opportunities

Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and outdoor living space ↑
Both Painting exterior — Fresh paint can improve curb appeal and home value ↑
Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Enhances curb appeal and outdoor living space ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 44/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Jacksboro El F TX #1,744/4,322 Nat'l #21,283/41,679 Middle Jacksboro Middle D- TX #572/1,662 Nat'l #5,398/14,009 High Jacksboro H S D+ TX #447/1,632 Nat'l #5,016/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Jacksboro ISD
NCES district ID: 4824530
Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -3.00%
Reading proficiency: 42% ▬ 0.00%
Median HH income: $47,739
Composite: 35.94/100
National rank: #4802
State rank: #337 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 68/100

Livability — Bridgeport

Score: 68/100
State rank: #472
US rank: #9507

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Wise County · 71,620 people
Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
Population (ZIP): 11,632
Household income: $92,130
Rent vs Own: 25.0% rent · 75.0% own
Severe rent burden: 3% of renters

Population outlook (Wise County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 71,620 people
By 2030: 75,858 · +5.9%
By 2040: 83,908 · +17.2%
By 2050: 90,717 · +26.7%
By 2075: 107,583 · +50.2%
By 2100: 114,996 · +60.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Majority White (60%)
Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 9% Black 2% Asian 1% Native American 1%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31%
Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Vietnam
Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 27%

Political lean MEDSL · Wise

2024 margin: Solid R (+70.0) · D 14.7% · R 84.7%
2008→2024 swing: -14.3pp toward R · 2008: -55.7pp · 2024: -70.0pp
All cycles: 2024: R+70.0 2020: R+68.2 2016: R+69.9 2012: R+67.5 2008: R+55.7

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -0.82%
Current HPI: 417.89
Rent YoY: —
Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

2026-06-17 Listed $209,999 NTREIS

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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