7484 Shadow Lake Dr · Upper Grand Lagoon, FL 32407

$254,900

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,496 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 326 Days on market

Built 2021 2,178 sqft lot $170/sqft · 20% below area Est $317k · 20% under $399/mo HOA · 18% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investment-Friendly Townhome where coastal living meets income-generating opportunity! This townhome permits short-term rentals, making it ideal for investors, part-time residents, or anyone chasing sunshine and ROI. Enjoy an open-concept layout, sleek finishes, and a private outdoor space just moments from Panama City Beach hotspots. Resort-style pool, manicured grounds, and a scenic pond add to the appeal, while low-maintenance living frees you up to soak in the Gulf breeze. Whether you're seeking your beach base, a cash-flowing rental, or both—this one's got the vibe and the versatility.

Key facts

• Scenic pond
• Resort-style pool
• Manicured grounds

Tags

• PRIVATE OUTDOOR SPACE
• RESORT-STYLE POOL
• MANICURED GROUNDS
• SCENIC POND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $255k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-356 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $192k (24.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $221k (13.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $192k (24.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.2% in Upper Grand Lagoon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#583 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Breakfast Point Academy (math 62% / reading 57%, grade B-, #690 of 2,144 statewide, top 34%, 1,058 students, 47% FRL); J.R. Arnold High School (math 41% / reading 54%, grade D, #204 of 667 statewide, top 31%, 1,617 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 705 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 326 days — a 12% lower offer ($224k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $192,015 (24.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 326 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.99%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $317,151
• List price: $254,900
• Delta: -19.63%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7464 Shadow Lake Dr	0.04mi	3/2.5	1,496 (0%)	2mo	$243,000	$162	94
7690 Shadow Lake Dr	0.25mi	3/2.5	1,496 (0%)	11mo	$269,000	$180	77
106 Dana Way	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,483 (-1%)	9mo	$280,000	$189	60
112 Dana Way	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,445 (-3%)	6mo	$320,000	$221	57
7131 Melissa Elaine Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,417 (-5%)	11mo	$335,000	$236	57
208 Greenwood Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,553 (+4%)	8mo	$270,000	$174	52
124 Heritage Cir	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,315 (-12%)	10mo	$295,000	$224	51
109 Michelle Ct	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,387 (-7%)	8mo	$310,000	$224	50
142 Heritage Cir	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,682 (+12%)	9mo	$338,500	$201	49
1840 Annabellas Dr	0.70mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,404 (-6%)	2mo	$190,000	$135	48
219 Woodlawn Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,590 (+6%)	10mo	$360,000	$226	45
198 Laird Cir	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,613 (+8%)	13mo	$485,000	$301	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.02×
• Total profit: $-70,220
• Equity at exit: $38,006

10-year hold

• IRR: -59.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.60×
• Total profit: $-114,418
• Equity at exit: $22,039

Cash invested: $71,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32407

• Home prices YoY: -29.5%
• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 705
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,214 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax from tax record: −$263 /mo · $3,153/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$399
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$465
• Net cashflow: $-356

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,664

Max offer price $192,015

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-212	-5% $-284	+0% $-356	+5% $-428	+10% $-500
Rent	-10% $-531	-5% $-443	+0% $-356	+5% $-269	+10% $-181
Rate	-1.0pp $-228	-0.5pp $-291	base $-356	+0.5pp $-422	+1.0pp $-489

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,725
• Closing costs: $7,647
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7664 Shadow Lake Dr Unit 1523352P Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1539	$3,210	$2.09	15d	1	0.23mi
7682 Shadow Lake Dr Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	1496	$1,875	$1.25	23d	1	0.26mi
7110 London St Panama City Beach, FL	2.0–3.0	2.5	1419	$2,157	$1.52	15d	6	0.29mi
2148 Sterling Cove Blvd Unit 1 Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	1.5	1152	$1,695	$1.47	23d	1	0.46mi
2110 Sterling Cove Blvd Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	1156	$1,800	$1.56	23d	1	0.52mi
2195 Wilkinson St Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1017	$2,355	$2.31	15d	41	0.56mi
1846 Annabellas Dr Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.5	1404	$1,850	$1.32	23d	1	0.74mi
6422 W Highway 98 #1405 Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1384	$3,850	$2.78	23d	1	0.79mi
1744 Annabellas Dr Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	1578	$2,100	$1.33	15d	1	0.84mi
1734 Annabellas Dr Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	1578	$2,100	$1.33	23d	1	0.84mi
6625 Harbour Blvd Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1438	$1,695	$1.18	23d	1	0.91mi
8551 Panama City Beach Pkwy Panama City Beach, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	964	$2,184	$2.26	15d	12	0.95mi
6588 Harbour Blvd Unit 1 Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.5	1200	$1,760	$1.47	23d	1	0.96mi
6728 Sunrise Dr Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	966	$1,600	$1.66	15d	1	0.97mi
8604 Whelch Dr Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1087	$2,950	$2.71	15d	18	1.08mi
8700 Front Beach Rd Panama City Beach, FL	2.0–3.0	2.5	1543	$2,400	$1.56	15d	2	1.10mi
1609 Vecuna Cir Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1268	$2,100	$1.66	15d	1	1.19mi
140 Treasure Palm Dr Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1564	$2,350	$1.50	23d	1	1.23mi
2526 Laurie Ave Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	950	$1,750	$1.84	15d	1	1.32mi
2216 Anne Ave Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	951	$1,300	$1.37	15d	1	1.37mi
2340 Grand Oaks Ln Unit 1523381P Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	1.0	1001	$4,240	$4.24	15d	1	1.38mi
2301 Anne Ave Unit 8901 Laird Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	900	$1,625	$1.81	15d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $399 · $4,788/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingpool

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $254,900 Active 326 DOM
2. 2026-06-14
   days on market $254,900 Active 324 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $254,900 Active 323 DOM
4. 2026-06-10
   days on market $254,900 Active 321 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $254,900 Active 320 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $254,900 Active 319 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $254,900 Active 318 DOM
8. 2026-06-05
   days on market $254,900 Active 315 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $254,900 Active 314 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $254,900 Active 313 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $254,900 Active 312 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $254,900 Active 311 DOM
13. 2026-05-30
    days on market $254,900 Active 310 DOM
14. 2026-01-29
    price $254,900 603-char remark

    Show marketing remark (841 chars)

    Home in the HATHAWAY TOWNHOMES community of PANAMA CITY BEACH offering strong LOCATION VALUE and excellent INVESTMENT POTENTIAL with SHORT-TERM RENTALS PERMITTED. This property features an OPEN LAYOUT, spacious bedrooms, and a BACKYARD AREA suitable for outdoor seating. The PRIMARY BEDROOM overlooks a POND WITH FOUNTAIN, creating a desirable natural backdrop for guests or owners. Enjoy LOW-MAINTENANCE LIVING with a 1-CAR GARAGE and DRIVEWAY PARKING for TWO VEHICLES. The community offers a RESORT-STYLE COMMUNITY POOL with LOUNGERS and WATER FEATURES, along with a CENTRAL PCB LOCATION near the BEACH, PIER PARK, shopping, dining, and the NAVY BASE. A great OPPORTUNITY for buyers looking to PERSONALIZE a home in a high-demand PCB LOCATION with strong RENTAL APPEAL. Photos may include digital enhancements, editing, or virtual staging.

15. 2026-01-29
    price $254,900 841-char remark

    Show marketing remark (841 chars)

    Home in the HATHAWAY TOWNHOMES community of PANAMA CITY BEACH offering strong LOCATION VALUE and excellent INVESTMENT POTENTIAL with SHORT-TERM RENTALS PERMITTED. This property features an OPEN LAYOUT, spacious bedrooms, and a BACKYARD AREA suitable for outdoor seating. The PRIMARY BEDROOM overlooks a POND WITH FOUNTAIN, creating a desirable natural backdrop for guests or owners. Enjoy LOW-MAINTENANCE LIVING with a 1-CAR GARAGE and DRIVEWAY PARKING for TWO VEHICLES. The community offers a RESORT-STYLE COMMUNITY POOL with LOUNGERS and WATER FEATURES, along with a CENTRAL PCB LOCATION near the BEACH, PIER PARK, shopping, dining, and the NAVY BASE. A great OPPORTUNITY for buyers looking to PERSONALIZE a home in a high-demand PCB LOCATION with strong RENTAL APPEAL. Photos may include digital enhancements, editing, or virtual staging.

16. 2025-11-05
    price $264,900 603-char remark

    Show marketing remark (603 chars)

    Investment-Friendly Townhome where coastal living meets income-generating opportunity! This townhome permits short-term rentals, making it ideal for investors, part-time residents, or anyone chasing sunshine and ROI. Enjoy an open-concept layout, sleek finishes, and a private outdoor space just moments from Panama City Beach hotspots. Resort-style pool, manicured grounds, and a scenic pond add to the appeal, while low-maintenance living frees you up to soak in the Gulf breeze. Whether you're seeking your beach base, a cash-flowing rental, or both—this one's got the vibe and the versatility.

17. 2025-11-04
    price $264,900 841-char remark

    Show marketing remark (841 chars)

    Home in the HATHAWAY TOWNHOMES community of PANAMA CITY BEACH offering strong LOCATION VALUE and excellent INVESTMENT POTENTIAL with SHORT-TERM RENTALS PERMITTED. This property features an OPEN LAYOUT, spacious bedrooms, and a BACKYARD AREA suitable for outdoor seating. The PRIMARY BEDROOM overlooks a POND WITH FOUNTAIN, creating a desirable natural backdrop for guests or owners. Enjoy LOW-MAINTENANCE LIVING with a 1-CAR GARAGE and DRIVEWAY PARKING for TWO VEHICLES. The community offers a RESORT-STYLE COMMUNITY POOL with LOUNGERS and WATER FEATURES, along with a CENTRAL PCB LOCATION near the BEACH, PIER PARK, shopping, dining, and the NAVY BASE. A great OPPORTUNITY for buyers looking to PERSONALIZE a home in a high-demand PCB LOCATION with strong RENTAL APPEAL. Photos may include digital enhancements, editing, or virtual staging.

18. 2025-07-24
    listed $274,900 Active 603-char remark

    Show marketing remark (841 chars)

    Home in the HATHAWAY TOWNHOMES community of PANAMA CITY BEACH offering strong LOCATION VALUE and excellent INVESTMENT POTENTIAL with SHORT-TERM RENTALS PERMITTED. This property features an OPEN LAYOUT, spacious bedrooms, and a BACKYARD AREA suitable for outdoor seating. The PRIMARY BEDROOM overlooks a POND WITH FOUNTAIN, creating a desirable natural backdrop for guests or owners. Enjoy LOW-MAINTENANCE LIVING with a 1-CAR GARAGE and DRIVEWAY PARKING for TWO VEHICLES. The community offers a RESORT-STYLE COMMUNITY POOL with LOUNGERS and WATER FEATURES, along with a CENTRAL PCB LOCATION near the BEACH, PIER PARK, shopping, dining, and the NAVY BASE. A great OPPORTUNITY for buyers looking to PERSONALIZE a home in a high-demand PCB LOCATION with strong RENTAL APPEAL. Photos may include digital enhancements, editing, or virtual staging.

19. 2025-07-24
    listed $274,900 Active 841-char remark

    Show marketing remark (841 chars)

    Home in the HATHAWAY TOWNHOMES community of PANAMA CITY BEACH offering strong LOCATION VALUE and excellent INVESTMENT POTENTIAL with SHORT-TERM RENTALS PERMITTED. This property features an OPEN LAYOUT, spacious bedrooms, and a BACKYARD AREA suitable for outdoor seating. The PRIMARY BEDROOM overlooks a POND WITH FOUNTAIN, creating a desirable natural backdrop for guests or owners. Enjoy LOW-MAINTENANCE LIVING with a 1-CAR GARAGE and DRIVEWAY PARKING for TWO VEHICLES. The community offers a RESORT-STYLE COMMUNITY POOL with LOUNGERS and WATER FEATURES, along with a CENTRAL PCB LOCATION near the BEACH, PIER PARK, shopping, dining, and the NAVY BASE. A great OPPORTUNITY for buyers looking to PERSONALIZE a home in a high-demand PCB LOCATION with strong RENTAL APPEAL. Photos may include digital enhancements, editing, or virtual staging.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,153 · $263/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,153 · $263/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,563
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,278
• − Property taxes: −$3,153
• − Insurance: −$1,274
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,125
• − Management: −$2,125
• − HOA: −$4,788
• − Depreciation: −$7,415
• Taxable loss: −$8,597
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,063
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,209/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Upper Grand Lagoon

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #583
• US rank: #11085

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• City population: 18,326
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 16,404
• Household income: $80,831
• Rent vs Own: 43.6% rent · 56.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 939.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 10% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -116.39%
• Current HPI: 277.8875
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.25%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-7.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-29 Price Changed $254,900 ECAR
• 2026-01-29 Price Changed $254,900 CPARMLS
• 2025-11-05 Price Changed $264,900 ECAR
• 2025-11-04 Price Changed $264,900 CPARMLS
• 2025-07-24 Listed $274,900 CPARMLS
• 2025-07-24 Listed $274,900 ECAR

Property tax history

+50.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,153 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.