2819 Lone Oak Dr · Belton, TX 76513

$250,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,808 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 51 Days on market

Built 2021 4,051 sqft lot $89/sqft · 56% below area Est $283k · 12% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.7/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.5/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks

In the heart of Belton, Texas. Minutes from HEB, Walgreens, and Sonic. Two bedroom, two bath with open concept. Handicap accesible living. Laminate flooring throughout the home. Stainless steel appliances. Minimal yard to maintain.

Key facts

• Laminate flooring
• Garage
• Built 2021

Tags

• LAMINATE FLOORING
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage
• Utilities: Electricity available and on property; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story; Brick exterior; Entry on main level; Metal roof; Resale property
• Construction: Built of brick; Metal roof; Slab foundation; Year built (assessor source)
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Covered porch/patio

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Range; Refrigerator; Some electric appliances
• Bedrooms: All bedrooms on main level
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air (one unit)
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Built-in features; Breakfast area; Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen/family room combo; Custom cabinets; Solid surface counters
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room / laundry in utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $250k).
• Recommended offer: $242k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.1% vs local median 3.6% in Belton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#462 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: employment C-, schools D, amenities F.
• Belton ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #285 of 826 in TX (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 745 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 3,222 units permitted in Bell County in 2024 (246 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,631/mo this rent would consume 54% of the median local household income ($81k/yr) (locally 1198% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bell County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.3% rent growth), your $70k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 70% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $242,500 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.45% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.91%
• DSCR: 1.93
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $283,000
• List price: $250,000
• Delta: -11.66%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.29% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.44×
• Total profit: $31,027
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.47×
• Total profit: $102,706
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76513

• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 745
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,631 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$234 /mo · $2,805/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$763
• Net cashflow: $1,220

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,087

Max offer price $250,000

Occupancy floor 61%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	2	$3,630
Total (2 units)			$3,631

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
509 Guthrie Dr Unit 1534804P Belton, TX	3.0	2.0	2206	$6,021	$2.73	21d	1	0.32mi
410 Downing St Belton, TX	3.0	2.0	2839	$1,700	$0.60	43d	1	0.92mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $250,000 Active 51 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $250,000 Active 50 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $250,000 Active 49 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $250,000 Active 48 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $250,000 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $250,000 Active 45 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $250,000 Active 43 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $250,000 Active 42 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $250,000 Active 41 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $250,000 Active 40 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $250,000 Active 37 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $250,000 Active 36 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $250,000 Active 35 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $250,000 Active 34 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $250,000 Active 33 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $250,000 Active 32 DOM
17. 2026-04-28
    listed $250,000 Active 231-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,805 · $234/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,575 · $381/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,770/yr (+$148/mo · 63.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 70% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $43,572
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$2,805
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,486
• − Management: −$3,486
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable income: $11,269
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,705
• After-tax cash flow: $11,930/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Belton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809860
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $61,239
• Composite: 37.62/100
• National rank: #4378
• State rank: #285 of 826 in TX

Livability — Belton

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #462
• US rank: #9300

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Belton, TX
• County: Bell County · 345,090 people
• City population: 45,928
• Metro: Killeen-Temple, TX
• Population (ZIP): 45,928
• Household income: $80,661
• Rent vs Own: 28.1% rent · 71.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1198.0

Population outlook (Bell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 371,114 people
• By 2030: 389,104 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 420,592 · +13.3%
• By 2050: 447,779 · +20.7%
• By 2075: 499,130 · +34.5%
• By 2100: 505,680 · +36.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 14% Black 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 13% Korean 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bell

• 2024 margin: R (+16.2) · D 41.3% · R 57.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: -9.8pp · 2024: -16.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.2 2020: R+8.5 2016: R+15.1 2012: R+16.4 2008: R+9.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.10%
• Current HPI: 183.6715
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.29%
• Metro: Killeen-Temple, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Listed $250,000 CTXMLS

Property tax history

-22.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,805 · -22.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.