14531 Sweetwater Dr · Cove, TX 77523

$269,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,516 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 60 Days on market

Built 2021 Fair condition 6,599 sqft lot $178/sqft · 13% below area Est $310k · 13% under $63/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.3/15.0
• Cash flow +11.5/30.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This charming home has everything you’re looking for! Located in the highly rated BHISD, it features a large, fully fenced backyard with no back neighbors, offering privacy and peace of mind — perfect for kids and entertaining friends and family. Inside, you’ll find thoughtful updates that make daily life easier and more enjoyable, including stainless steel appliances, a whole-home water softener, and modern touches throughout. With generous living spaces and a backyard built for fun and relaxation, this home is the epitome of privacy and family-friendly living.

Key facts

• No back neighbors
• 6,599 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• NO BACK NEIGHBORS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• WHOLE-HOME WATER SOFTENER
• GENEROUS LIVING SPACES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $270k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-90 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $254k (5.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $234k (13.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $234k (13.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#766 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Barbers Hill ISD (rural): math 72% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #12 of 826 in TX (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 776 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 629 units permitted in Chambers County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chambers County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($262k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $234,473 (13.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.43%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $309,731
• List price: $269,999
• Delta: -12.83%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14503 Sweet Water Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,516 (0%)	3mo	$280,000	$185	94
6810 Bens Lndg	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,512 (-0%)	3mo	$259,140	$171	74
635 Hidden Brook Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,516 (0%)	1mo	$282,000	$186	71
218 San Marcos Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,728 (+14%)	1mo	$290,000	$168	66
6707 Alejandro Pl	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,592 (+5%)	1mo	$299,100	$188	66
6830 Bens Lndg	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,580 (+4%)	1mo	$274,870	$174	64
411 Ruby Ford Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,408 (-7%)	1mo	$254,970	$181	58
5943 Snapping Turtle Rd	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,335 (-12%)	2mo	$225,000	$169	55
5739 Rainbow Rd	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,381 (-9%)	1mo	$215,000	$156	54
6818 Bens Lndg	0.57mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,642 (+8%)	1mo	$269,800	$164	52
6922 Bens Lndg	0.65mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,642 (+8%)	1mo	$269,180	$164	48
6743 Camila St	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,682 (+11%)	2mo	$284,000	$169	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-48,425
• Equity at exit: $40,258

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-45,120
• Equity at exit: $23,345

Cash invested: $75,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77523

• Home prices YoY: -31.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 776
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,345 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,416
• Tax from tax record: −$351 /mo · $4,215/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$63
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$492
• Net cashflow: $-90

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,459

Max offer price $254,047

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $63	-5% $-14	+0% $-90	+5% $-167	+10% $-243
Rent	-10% $-276	-5% $-183	+0% $-90	+5% $2	+10% $95
Rate	-1.0pp $46	-0.5pp $-22	base $-90	+0.5pp $-160	+1.0pp $-231

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,500
• Closing costs: $8,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14739 Sweet Water Dr Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1821	$2,395	$1.32	2d	1	0.25mi
14930 Spring Forest Ln Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1829	$2,750	$1.50	44d	1	0.49mi
5815 Littoral Rd Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1305	$1,845	$1.41	20d	1	0.60mi
8414 Liberty Sky Rd Baytown, TX	3.0	2.5	2046	$2,095	$1.02	25d	1	0.80mi
5006 Creekside Ave Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1553	$2,081	$1.34	25d	1	1.16mi
4814 Emerald Bay Cir Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1666	$2,191	$1.32	22d	1	1.33mi
21 Cotton Bayou Cir Cove, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,195	$0.98	3d	1	1.39mi
21 Cotton Bayou Cir Cove, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,195	$0.98	16d	1	1.39mi
8017 FM 3180 Rd Baytown, TX	2.0	2.0	1081	$1,450	$1.34	44d	1	1.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $63 · $756/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $269,999 Pending 60 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $269,999 Pending 59 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $269,999 Pending 58 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $269,999 Pending 56 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   status $269,999 Pending 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $269,999 Active 52 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $269,999 Active 51 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $269,999 Active 50 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $269,999 Active 47 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $269,999 Active 46 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $269,999 Active 45 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $269,999 Active 44 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $269,999 Active 43 DOM
14. 2026-04-18
    historical

    Show marketing remark (586 chars)

    This charming home has everything you’re looking for! Located in the highly rated BHISD, it features a large, fully fenced backyard with no back neighbors, offering privacy and peace of mind — perfect for kids and entertaining friends and family. Inside, you’ll find thoughtful updates that make daily life easier and more enjoyable, including stainless steel appliances, a whole-home water softener, and modern touches throughout. With generous living spaces and a backyard built for fun and relaxation, this home is the epitome of privacy and family-friendly living.

15. 2026-04-18
    listed $269,999 Active 586-char remark

    Show marketing remark (586 chars)

    This charming home has everything you’re looking for! Located in the highly rated BHISD, it features a large, fully fenced backyard with no back neighbors, offering privacy and peace of mind — perfect for kids and entertaining friends and family. Inside, you’ll find thoughtful updates that make daily life easier and more enjoyable, including stainless steel appliances, a whole-home water softener, and modern touches throughout. With generous living spaces and a backyard built for fun and relaxation, this home is the epitome of privacy and family-friendly living.

16. 2026-03-09
    listed $285,000 Active
17. 2026-03-09
    historical
18. 2025-11-25
    listed $289,000 Active
19. 2025-11-24
    historical
20. 2025-09-25
    listed $294,900 Active
21. 2024-08-29
    soldstatus Closed
22. 2024-08-29
    soldstatus Sold
23. 2024-08-29
    soldstatus
24. 2024-08-06
    status Pending
25. 2024-08-02
    status Pending
26. 2024-08-02
    status Option Pending
27. 2024-07-16
    listed $280,000 Active
28. 2024-07-15
    listed $280,000 Active
29. 2024-07-02
    historical $280,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,215 · $351/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,941 · $412/mo
• Expected delta: +$726/yr (+$61/mo · 17.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,137
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,124
• − Property taxes: −$4,215
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,251
• − Management: −$2,251
• − HOA: −$756
• − Depreciation: −$7,855
• Taxable loss: −$5,665
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,359
• After-tax cash flow: $276/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This home requires significant updates to its interior and HVAC systems, but has a good exterior and landscaping. Potential buyers should consider the investment needed for a thorough renovation.

Repairs flagged

• Major kitchen — No photos of kitchen
• Major bathrooms — No photos of bathrooms
• Major interior walls/paint — No photos of interior walls/paint
• Major flooring — No photos of flooring
• Major HVAC/mechanicals — No photos of HVAC/mechanicals

Value-add opportunities

• Resale paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Resale repair flooring — New flooring improves home's condition and value
• Both update HVAC/mechanicals — Modern HVAC improves comfort and energy efficiency, attracting both buyers and renters

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen · No photos of kitchen	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathrooms · No photos of bathrooms	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls/paint · No photos of interior walls/paint	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · No photos of flooring	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC/mechanicals · No photos of HVAC/mechanicals	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$75,000–250,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Resale repair flooring — New flooring improves home's condition and value ↑
• Both update HVAC/mechanicals — Modern HVAC improves comfort and energy efficiency, attracting both buyers and renters ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Barbers Hill ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809450
• Math proficiency: 72% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $87,257
• Composite: 61.73/100
• National rank: #737
• State rank: #12 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cove

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #766
• US rank: #13996

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Chambers County · 30,186 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,186
• Household income: $124,188
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 549.0

Population outlook (Chambers County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,946 people
• By 2030: 51,094 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 59,578 · +26.9%
• By 2050: 68,318 · +45.5%
• By 2075: 90,485 · +92.7%
• By 2100: 104,885 · +123.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 11% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Chambers

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.6) · D 16.8% · R 82.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.4pp toward R · 2008: -51.2pp · 2024: -65.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.6 2020: R+61.7 2016: R+62.1 2012: R+61.1 2008: R+51.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.33%
• Current HPI: 222.6999
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.42%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.6% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Listed $269,999 HARMLS
• 2026-04-18 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-09 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-09 Listed $285,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-25 Listed $289,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-24 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-09-25 Listed $294,900 HARMLS
• 2024-08-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-08-29 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2024-08-29 Sold (MLS) — BBOR
• 2024-08-06 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-08-02 Pending — BBOR
• 2024-08-02 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-07-16 Listed $280,000 BBOR
• 2024-07-15 Listed $280,000 HARMLS
• 2024-07-02 Coming Soon $280,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+42.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,215 · +0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.