636 Hill Road Cir · Ayden, NC 28513

$120,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,084 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 28 Days on market

Built 1981 0.38 ac lot Est $143k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.4/30.0
• ARV discount +14.8/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investor special. 3 bed 1 bath home in need of an interior remodel. Great potential and location. New roof in 2025. Large backyard

Key facts

• Interior remodel
• Large backyard
• New roof

Tags

• INTERIOR REMODEL
• NEW ROOF
• LARGE BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: R8; Lot approximately 0.38 acres; Located in the Strawberry Banks subdivision; Road frontage on city street and state road

Exterior

• Parking: Concrete off-street parking
• Utilities: Public water connected; Public sewer connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One story (entry level 1)
• Construction: Vinyl siding and frame construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on one level
• Exterior features: No additional exterior features listed; No patio or porch; No fencing; Has a view

Interior

• Kitchen: No specific kitchen appliance details provided
• Bedrooms: 4 total rooms (includes living spaces and bedrooms)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump and electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Electric water heater; No basement
• Laundry & utility: No specific laundry appliances listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $427 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $118k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.6% vs local median 2.8% in Ayden — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#41 in NC, #3,656 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D+, employment D, commute F.
• Pitt County Schools (rural): math 41% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #100 of 178 in NC (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ayden Elementary (math 30% / reading 34%, grade F, #908 of 1,410 statewide, top 67%, 638 students, 100% FRL); Ayden Middle (math 34% / reading 39%, grade F, #270 of 475 statewide, top 57%, 388 students, 99% FRL); Ayden-Grifton High (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #414 of 535 statewide, top 79%, 659 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 56% district-wide (43 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 156 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,300 units permitted in Pitt County in 2024 (204 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pitt County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $24k; list at $120k implies a 400% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,200 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.26%
• DSCR: 1.68
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $143,088
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4114 Fenner College St	0.30mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,112 (+3%)	12mo	$147,000	$132	66
743 Fawn Rd	0.30mi	3/1.0	1,075 (-1%)	23mo	$135,000	$126	66
684 Second St	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,160 (+7%)	18mo	$219,000	$189	50
762 Second St	0.36mi	3/1.5	1,216 (+12%)	14mo	$120,000	$99	49
791 Third St	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,175 (+8%)	17mo	$200,000	$170	49
588 Second St	0.53mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,236 (+14%)	7mo	$123,500	$100	41
376 Tamarack Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,237 (+14%)	8mo	$238,000	$192	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.23×
• Total profit: $7,743
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.24×
• Total profit: $41,693
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28513

• Home prices YoY: -8.8%
• Active inventory: 156
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$78 /mo · $942/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $427

Break-even live

Break-even rent $959

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $495	-5% $461	+0% $427	+5% $393	+10% $359
Rent	-10% $309	-5% $368	+0% $427	+5% $486	+10% $546
Rate	-1.0pp $488	-0.5pp $458	base $427	+0.5pp $396	+1.0pp $364

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4058 West Ave Ayden, NC	2.0	1.0	1350	$1,500	$1.11	21d	1	0.62mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-10
   status $120,000 Pending 28 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $120,000 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $120,000 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   days on market $120,000 Active 23 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $120,000 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $120,000 Active 21 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $120,000 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $120,000 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-05-30
    days on market $120,000 Active 18 DOM
11. 2026-05-11
    listed $120,000 Active
12. 2003-02-01
    soldstatus $24,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $942 · $78/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $984 · $82/mo
• Expected delta: +$42/yr (+$4/mo · 4.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$942
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,440
• − Management: −$1,440
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $3,365
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$808
• After-tax cash flow: $4,319/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pitt County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700012
• Math proficiency: 41% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $40,631
• Composite: 35.67/100
• National rank: #4877
• State rank: #100 of 178 in NC

Livability — Ayden

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #41
• US rank: #3656

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ayden, NC
• Population (ZIP): 9,754

Population outlook (Pitt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 194,585 people
• By 2030: 203,756 · +4.7%
• By 2040: 220,807 · +13.5%
• By 2050: 236,614 · +21.6%
• By 2075: 275,940 · +41.8%
• By 2100: 300,058 · +54.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Black 29% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Italian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Pitt

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+6.0) · D 52.5% · R 46.5% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: 8.8pp · 2024: 6.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+6.0 2020: D+9.4 2016: D+7.4 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+8.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -18.36%
• Current HPI: 190.2552
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+400.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Listed $120,000 Hive MLS
• 2003-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $24,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $942 · -52.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.