13134 Sassafras Trl · Lakewood Ranch, FL 34219

$299,256

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,327 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 2025 4,800 sqft lot Est $313k · at est. $90/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.0/30.0
• ARV discount +9.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Cassia floorplan is a single-story home featuring 2 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, a den that is located off the foyer, as well as a 2-car garage. With 1,312 sq. ft. of living area, this home offers a functional layout perfect for comfortable living and entertaining. The spacious great room seamlessly connects to the kitchen and dining area, creating a bright and inviting space. The kitchen includes stainless steel appliances, quartz countertops, a pantry, and direct access to the covered lanai, perfect for outdoor relaxation. The owner’s suite is a private retreat with an en-suite bathroom that includes a double-sink vanity, walk-in shower, and walk-in closet. Community amenities in

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Den off foyer
• Private retreat

Tags

• SINGLE-STORY HOME
• DEN OFF FOYER
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• DIRECT ACCESS TO COVERED LANAI
• PRIVATE RETREAT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-19 ($-229/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $296k (0.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $271k (9.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $271k (9.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.3% in Lakewood Ranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Annie Lucy Williams Elementary School (math 80% / reading 73%, grade A, #185 of 2,144 statewide, top 9%, 798 students, 31% FRL); Buffalo Creek Middle School (math 59% / reading 51%, grade B-, #180 of 571 statewide, top 32%, 1,127 students, 44% FRL); Parrish Community High School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade D+, #160 of 667 statewide, top 25%, 2,017 students, 32% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2194 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($295k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $270,763 (9.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.27%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $313,172
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13114 Sassafras Trl	0.04mi	2/2.0	1,312 (-1%)	3mo	$300,156	$229	94
13147 Sassafras Trl	0.04mi	2/2.0	1,312 (-1%)	4mo	$313,000	$239	93
13047 Bayberry Way	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,312 (-1%)	5mo	$297,220	$227	91
13131 Sassafras Trl	0.03mi	2/2.0	1,241 (-6%)	2mo	$313,399	$253	86
4410 Hawthorn Ave	0.05mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,275 (-4%)	2mo	$301,306	$236	85
13139 Sassafras Trl	0.03mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,400 (+6%)	2mo	$337,668	$241	82
13142 Sassafras Trl	0.02mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,400 (+6%)	4mo	$318,756	$228	82
13253 Sassafras Trl	0.10mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,275 (-4%)	2mo	$316,423	$248	82
13105 Bayberry Way	0.06mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,400 (+6%)	6mo	$309,469	$221	78
13142 Cedar Elm Ln	0.12mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,405 (+6%)	3mo	$307,500	$219	77
4429 Boxelder Ave	0.17mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,275 (-4%)	6mo	$299,323	$235	76
4254 Golden Creek Ter	0.53mi	2/2.0	1,479 (+12%)	6mo	$368,000	$249	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-57,545
• Equity at exit: $44,620

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.02×
• Total profit: $-81,948
• Equity at exit: $25,874

Cash invested: $83,792 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2194
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,708 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,569
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$374 /mo · $4,489/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$90
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$569
• Net cashflow: $-19

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,732

Max offer price $296,498

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $188	-5% $84	+0% $-19	+5% $-122	+10% $-226
Rent	-10% $-233	-5% $-126	+0% $-19	+5% $88	+10% $195
Rate	-1.0pp $132	-0.5pp $57	base $-19	+0.5pp $-97	+1.0pp $-175

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,814
• Closing costs: $8,978
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13832 Old Creek Ct Parrish, FL	2.0	2.0	1641	$2,700	$1.65	25d	1	0.35mi
4723 Willow Bend Ave Parrish, FL	2.0	2.0	1524	$2,800	$1.84	25d	1	0.97mi
3511 Wild Blossom Pl Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1692	$2,500	$1.48	13d	1	1.17mi
4213 Berkeley Dr Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1749	$2,485	$1.42	4d	1	1.25mi
2910 122nd Ter E Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1830	$3,300	$1.80	25d	1	1.30mi
11835 Crawford Parrish Ln Parrish, FL	2.0	2.0	1156	$2,800	$2.42	25d	1	1.38mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $90 · $1,080/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-03-19
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-09
   price $299,256
3. 2026-03-04
   listed $307,256 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,492
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,763
• − Property taxes: −$4,489
• − Insurance: −$1,496
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,599
• − Management: −$2,599
• − HOA: −$1,080
• − Depreciation: −$8,706
• Taxable loss: −$5,241
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,258
• After-tax cash flow: $1,029/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakewood Ranch

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 52,177
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 219.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-2.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-19 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $299,256 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-04 Listed $307,256 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $129 · +0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.