212 SE Carob Gln · Watertown, FL 32025

$279,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,404 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 175 Days on market

Built 1986 0.30 ac lot Est $222k · 26% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well hello Ms. charming ; ) Request a tour today of this well-cared-for 3/2 on a beautifully landscaped fenced lot. It features a spacious kitchen with stainless steel appliances, high ceilings, cozy fireplace, metal roof, and a 24 x 24 detached garage. The separate sizable family room could function as an office, kids' playroom, or fourth bedroom! It's located at the end of the quiet neighborhood street. You will love this one!

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Versatile room
• Cozy fireplace

Tags

• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• COZY FIREPLACE
• METAL ROOF
• DETACHED GARAGE
• VERSATILE ROOM

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Private well water
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story
• Construction: Frame construction; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Screened patio/porch; Wood fencing; Workshop on property

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Microwave
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Vaulted ceilings

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $279k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-330 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $221k (20.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (35.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $180k (35.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#798 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Columbia (town): math 53% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #25 of 73 in FL (top 34%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 143 active listings in the ZIP; 178 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($55k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $30k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Columbia County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$48k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 175 days — a 12% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $240k; 16% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $180,390 (35.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 175 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.07%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 12.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $221,832
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
186 SE Rosewood Cir	0.23mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,448 (+3%)	6mo	$235,000	$162	72
158 SE Plant St	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,340 (-5%)	8mo	$259,000	$193	68
465 SE Rosewood Cir	0.31mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,488 (+6%)	6mo	$255,000	$171	65
406 SE Pearl Ter	0.24mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,288 (-8%)	9mo	$219,000	$170	63
772 SE Defender Dr	0.35mi	3/1.5	1,509 (+8%)	8mo	$170,000	$113	63
208 SE Elm Loop	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,230 (-12%)	7mo	$192,500	$157	60
173 SE Jenese Way	0.34mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,216 (-13%)	0mo	$180,000	$148	57
741 SE Rosewood Cir	0.21mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,193 (-15%)	6mo	$189,000	$158	55
201 SE Rosewood Cir	0.26mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,220 (-13%)	7mo	$187,000	$153	55
795 SE Defender Dr	0.37mi	3/1.5	1,568 (+12%)	8mo	$193,500	$123	55
465 SE Golf Club Ave	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,215 (-14%)	0mo	$175,000	$144	54
240 SE Cameron Ter	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,225 (-13%)	5mo	$235,000	$192	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.68×
• Total profit: $130,866
• Equity at exit: $251,345

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.14×
• Total profit: $401,740
• Equity at exit: $542,036

Cash invested: $78,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32025

• Home prices YoY: 6.8%
• Active inventory: 143
• Price-to-rent: 12.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,804 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,463
• Tax from tax record: −$176 /mo · $2,106/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$379
• Net cashflow: $-330

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,221

Max offer price $220,739

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,750
• Closing costs: $8,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $279,000 Active 175 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $279,000 Active 174 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $279,000 Active 173 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $279,000 Active 172 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $279,000 Active 171 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $279,000 Active 169 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $279,000 Active 168 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $279,000 Active 165 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $279,000 Active 164 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $279,000 Active 163 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $279,000 Active 160 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $279,000 Active 159 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $279,000 Active 158 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $279,000 Active 157 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $279,000 Active 156 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $279,000 Active 155 DOM
17. 2026-01-25
    price $279,000
18. 2025-12-26
    listed $285,000 Active
19. 2023-02-01
    soldstatus $239,900 Closed 432-char remark

    Show marketing remark (432 chars)

    Well hello Ms. charming ; ) Request a tour today of this well-cared-for 3/2 on a beautifully landscaped fenced lot. It features a spacious kitchen with stainless steel appliances, high ceilings, cozy fireplace, metal roof, and a 24 x 24 detached garage. The separate sizable family room could function as an office, kids' playroom, or fourth bedroom! It's located at the end of the quiet neighborhood street. You will love this one!

20. 2023-01-24
    listed $239,900 Active 432-char remark

    Show marketing remark (432 chars)

    Well hello Ms. charming ; ) Request a tour today of this well-cared-for 3/2 on a beautifully landscaped fenced lot. It features a spacious kitchen with stainless steel appliances, high ceilings, cozy fireplace, metal roof, and a 24 x 24 detached garage. The separate sizable family room could function as an office, kids' playroom, or fourth bedroom! It's located at the end of the quiet neighborhood street. You will love this one!

21. 2003-07-17
    soldstatus $84,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,106 · $176/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,316 · $193/mo
• Expected delta: +$209/yr (+$17/mo · 9.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,647
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,628
• − Property taxes: −$2,106
• − Insurance: −$1,395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,732
• − Management: −$1,732
• − Depreciation: −$8,116
• Taxable loss: −$9,063
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,175
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,783/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Columbia
• NCES district ID: 1200360
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $40,053
• Composite: 44.74/100
• National rank: #2750
• State rank: #25 of 73 in FL

Livability — Watertown

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #798
• US rank: #18481

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Columbia County · 40,507 people
• Metro: Lake City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 22,948
• Household income: $55,004
• Rent vs Own: 40.1% rent · 59.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 754.0

Population outlook (Columbia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,129 people
• By 2030: 67,501 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 65,465 · -3.9%
• By 2050: 63,058 · -7.4%
• By 2075: 56,291 · -17.4%
• By 2100: 45,243 · -33.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Black 20% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Columbia

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.2) · D 24.6% · R 74.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.4pp toward R · 2008: -33.8pp · 2024: -50.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.2 2020: R+45.2 2016: R+44.5 2012: R+36.7 2008: R+33.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 17.57%
• Current HPI: 276.7253
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lake City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+228.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-25 Price Changed $279,000 NFMLS
• 2025-12-26 Listed $285,000 NFMLS
• 2023-02-01 Sold (MLS) $239,900 NFMLS
• 2023-01-24 Listed $239,900 NFMLS
• 2003-07-17 Sold (Public Records) $84,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,106 · -13.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.