4017 Baden St · Houston, TX 77009

$225,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,092 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 57 Days on market

Built 1940 5,000 sqft lot $206/sqft · 22% below area Est $290k · 22% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.8/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Home in original condition. New construction in the neighborhood on both sides of the home. Home site could be used for new construction or remodeled to make it your own. Seller will consider all offers.

Key facts

• 5,000 sq ft lot
• Built 1940
• Listed 57 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1940; Single-story (first-floor living areas)
• Construction: Wood siding exterior; Composition roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Exterior features: Asphalt road access; Located in a subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Gas range; Kitchen on first floor (approx. 12x12)
• Bedrooms: Two first-floor bedrooms (each approximately 11x11)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Seller disclosure available; No fireplaces; Total of 4 rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-145 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $199k (11.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $193k (14.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $193k (14.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.1% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Martinez C El (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,583 of 4,322 statewide, top 86%, 280 students, 99% FRL); Marshall Middle (math 14% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,491 of 1,662 statewide, top 91%, 607 students, 97% FRL); Northside H S (math 15% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,389 of 1,632 statewide, top 86%, 1,168 students, 94% FRL) — zoned schools average 96% FRL vs 71% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 605 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 47% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $192,933 (14.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.76%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $290,102
• List price: $225,000
• Delta: -22.44%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4110 Beggs St	0.19mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,132 (+4%)	0mo	$184,900	$163	76
4502 Hain St	0.41mi	2/1.0	1,016 (-7%)	1mo	$273,500	$269	68
408 Canadian St	0.64mi	2/1.0	1,128 (+3%)	7mo	$220,000	$195	59
704 Cordell St	0.45mi	2/1.5	1,152 (+6%)	11mo	$520,000	$451	59
4725 Beggs St	0.53mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,111 (+2%)	7mo	$239,995	$216	58
809 Vincent St	0.42mi	2/2.0	1,223 (+12%)	4mo	$389,000	$318	53
208 Goldenrod St	0.51mi	2/1.0	1,204 (+10%)	11mo	$400,000	$332	50
1009 Tabor St	0.70mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,096 (+0%)	12mo	$410,000	$374	48
410 Merrill St	0.67mi	2/1.0	1,212 (+11%)	5mo	$745,000	$615	46
502 Enid St	0.47mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (+10%)	10mo	$450,000	$375	44
805 Walton St	0.59mi	3/1.0 (+1)	956 (-12%)	6mo	$320,000	$335	41
409 Walton St	0.55mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,235 (+13%)	8mo	$255,000	$206	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.84% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-49,694
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: -26.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.13×
• Total profit: $-70,883
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77009

• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 605
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,929 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$395 /mo · $4,745/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$405
• Net cashflow: $-145

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,113

Max offer price $199,401

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-18	-5% $-81	+0% $-145	+5% $-209	+10% $-272
Rent	-10% $-297	-5% $-221	+0% $-145	+5% $-69	+10% $8
Rate	-1.0pp $-32	-0.5pp $-88	base $-145	+0.5pp $-203	+1.0pp $-263

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 34 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3303 N Main St Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	734	$1,555	$2.12	45d	1	0.51mi
914 Bunton St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1389	$1,950	$1.40	45d	1	0.52mi
1007 Archer St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	1008	$1,923	$1.91	4d	1	0.57mi
306 North St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	950	$1,150	$1.21	45d	1	0.67mi
1209 Cordell St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	990	$2,200	$2.22	0d	1	0.71mi
3816 Gano St Unit B Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	700	$1,150	$1.64	45d	1	0.73mi
2623 Keene St Apt 514 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	1178	$1,949	$1.65	45d	1	0.81mi
2623 Keene St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	965	$3,280	$3.40	18d	44	0.81mi
4601 N Main St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1058	$2,095	$1.98	26d	1	0.86mi
207 Carl St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1230	$2,250	$1.83	45d	1	0.92mi
611 W Cavalcade St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	775	$1,339	$1.73	4d	12	0.93mi
2316 Freeman St Unit 3 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	750	$985	$1.31	9d	1	0.93mi
1617 Enid St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	974	$2,417	$2.48	0d	53	0.94mi
2310 N Main St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	997	$1,687	$1.69	45d	1	0.97mi
706 W Cavalcade St Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	746	$1,463	$1.96	45d	1	1.03mi
1860 White Oak Dr Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	812	$1,800	$2.22	3d	2	1.05mi
2209 Gano St Unit 4 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	700	$1,250	$1.79	45d	1	1.15mi
2209 Gano St Unit 3 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	700	$1,200	$1.71	45d	1	1.15mi
412 Paschall St Unit 1316398P Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1130	$4,840	$4.28	15d	1	1.20mi
770 Strawberry Pines Ct Houston, TX	2.0–3.0	2.5	1422	$2,501	$1.76	3d	12	1.20mi
2016 N Main St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1169	$2,200	$1.88	45d	1	1.21mi
1127 Walling St Unit R Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1400	$2,295	$1.64	45d	1	1.28mi
1008 Studewood St Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	704	$1,435	$2.04	5d	1	1.30mi
1111 Studewood St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1240	$2,075	$1.67	17d	1	1.30mi
831 Usener St Unit 906 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	724	$1,747	$2.41	45d	1	1.32mi
825 Usener St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	1050	$2,925	$2.79	0d	27	1.34mi
1690 North Loop Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	876	$2,269	$2.59	0d	40	1.35mi
200 Hogan St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1058	$1,904	$1.80	14d	1	1.40mi
1305 Beverly St Unit 1316399P Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	947	$4,725	$4.99	1d	1	1.40mi
725 Peddie St Unit 1257756P Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	1496	$5,083	$3.40	45d	1	1.41mi
1725 N Main St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	988	$2,263	$2.29	45d	1	1.42mi
2516 Ivy St Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,500	$1.25	45d	1	1.48mi
1625 N Main St Houston, TX	3.0	1.0–3.0	994	$2,008	$2.02	0d	40	1.49mi
1993 Silver St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,620	$2.38	26d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $225,000 Active 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $225,000 Active 54 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $225,000 Active 53 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $225,000 Active 52 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $225,000 Active 51 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,000 Active 49 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $225,000 Active 45 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $225,000 Active 44 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $225,000 Active 43 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $225,000 Active 40 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $225,000 Active 37 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $225,000 Active 36 DOM
13. 2026-04-24
    listed $225,000 Active 157-char remark
14. 2012-12-17
    soldstatus
15. 2012-12-14
    soldstatus Sold 203-char remark

    Show marketing remark (203 chars)

    Home in original condition. New construction in the neighborhood on both sides of the home. Home site could be used for new construction or remodeled to make it your own. Seller will consider all offers.

16. 2012-11-14
    historical 203-char remark

    Show marketing remark (203 chars)

    Home in original condition. New construction in the neighborhood on both sides of the home. Home site could be used for new construction or remodeled to make it your own. Seller will consider all offers.

17. 2012-09-14
    listed $55,000 203-char remark

    Show marketing remark (203 chars)

    Home in original condition. New construction in the neighborhood on both sides of the home. Home site could be used for new construction or remodeled to make it your own. Seller will consider all offers.

18. 1988-01-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,745 · $395/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,745 · $395/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,152
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$4,745
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,852
• − Management: −$1,852
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$5,571
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,337
• After-tax cash flow: $-402/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 35,769
• Household income: $83,148
• Rent vs Own: 42.4% rent · 57.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 994.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 53% White 33% Two or more races 22% Black 8% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 46%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -533.57%
• Current HPI: 219.5037
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.84%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+309.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Listed $225,000 HARMLS
• 2012-12-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2012-12-14 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2012-11-14 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2012-09-14 Listed $55,000 HARMLS
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,745 · -1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.