21133 Joe Paul Ln · Chandler, TX 75758

$199,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,128 sqft · Manufactured public records · 73 Days on market

Built 2003 0.56 ac lot $94/sqft · 23% below area Est $258k · 23% under ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.4/30.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to this one of a kind 5 bedroom, 3 full bath manufactured home in the Gale Ridge addition of Chandler, TX! Sitting on a large lot, this property offers the space, layout, and flexibility that’s hard to find at this price point. Step inside to over 2,100 square feet with a comfortable, open feel from the moment you walk in. The main living area flows easily into the dining space and kitchen, where you’ll find a center island, plenty of cabinetry, and a sink perfectly positioned under a window bringing in natural light. A second living area with a fireplace gives you options for a media room, playroom, or additional entertaining space. The primary suite is generously sized with an en suite bath and a large closet, while four additional bedrooms offer plenty of room for family, guests, or a home office setup. With two more full bathrooms, the layout is both functional and accommodating. Outside, you’ll enjoy a large front porch deck and a covered back deck, ideal for relaxing or hosting. The detached carport includes its own storage room, and there’s an additional shed in the backyard for even more storage. Located on a quiet street just minutes from Lake Palestine and all that Chandler has to offer, this home checks a lot of boxes for space, value, and location. Come take a look and see if this one feels like home!

Key facts

• Detached carport
• Large lot
• Covered back deck

Tags

• LARGE LOT
• CENTER ISLAND
• DETACHED CARPORT
• COVERED BACK DECK
• LARGE FRONT PORCH DECK
• ADDITIONAL SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $42 ($499/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $169k (14.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $169k (14.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.8% in Chandler — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#347 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Brownsboro ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #290 of 826 in TX (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 225 active listings in the ZIP; 263 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($187k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 60% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $169,467 (14.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.90%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $257,680
• List price: $199,000
• Delta: -22.77%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20561 Joe Paul Ln	0.51mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,048 (-4%)	21mo	$120,000	$59	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-29,620
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-22,472
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75758

• Home prices YoY: -27.6%
• Active inventory: 225
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,695 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$171 /mo · $2,048/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$356
• Net cashflow: $42

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,642

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $199,000 Active 73 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 72 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 71 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 70 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 69 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,000 Active 67 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 66 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,000 Active 64 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,000 Active 63 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $199,000 Active 62 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $199,000 Active 61 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $209,000 Active 56 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $209,000 Active 55 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $209,000 Active 54 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $209,000 Active 53 DOM
16. 2026-05-11
    price $209,000 1371-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1371 chars)

    Welcome home to this one of a kind 5 bedroom, 3 full bath manufactured home in the Gale Ridge addition of Chandler, TX! Sitting on a large lot, this property offers the space, layout, and flexibility that’s hard to find at this price point. Step inside to over 2,100 square feet with a comfortable, open feel from the moment you walk in. The main living area flows easily into the dining space and kitchen, where you’ll find a center island, plenty of cabinetry, and a sink perfectly positioned under a window bringing in natural light. A second living area with a fireplace gives you options for a media room, playroom, or additional entertaining space. The primary suite is generously sized with an en suite bath and a large closet, while four additional bedrooms offer plenty of room for family, guests, or a home office setup. With two more full bathrooms, the layout is both functional and accommodating. Outside, you’ll enjoy a large front porch deck and a covered back deck, ideal for relaxing or hosting. The detached carport includes its own storage room, and there’s an additional shed in the backyard for even more storage. Located on a quiet street just minutes from Lake Palestine and all that Chandler has to offer, this home checks a lot of boxes for space, value, and location. Come take a look and see if this one feels like home!

17. 2026-05-11
    price $209,000 1371-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1371 chars)

    Welcome home to this one of a kind 5 bedroom, 3 full bath manufactured home in the Gale Ridge addition of Chandler, TX! Sitting on a large lot, this property offers the space, layout, and flexibility that’s hard to find at this price point. Step inside to over 2,100 square feet with a comfortable, open feel from the moment you walk in. The main living area flows easily into the dining space and kitchen, where you’ll find a center island, plenty of cabinetry, and a sink perfectly positioned under a window bringing in natural light. A second living area with a fireplace gives you options for a media room, playroom, or additional entertaining space. The primary suite is generously sized with an en suite bath and a large closet, while four additional bedrooms offer plenty of room for family, guests, or a home office setup. With two more full bathrooms, the layout is both functional and accommodating. Outside, you’ll enjoy a large front porch deck and a covered back deck, ideal for relaxing or hosting. The detached carport includes its own storage room, and there’s an additional shed in the backyard for even more storage. Located on a quiet street just minutes from Lake Palestine and all that Chandler has to offer, this home checks a lot of boxes for space, value, and location. Come take a look and see if this one feels like home!

18. 2026-04-24
    status Active 1371-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1371 chars)

    Welcome home to this one of a kind 5 bedroom, 3 full bath manufactured home in the Gale Ridge addition of Chandler, TX! Sitting on a large lot, this property offers the space, layout, and flexibility that’s hard to find at this price point. Step inside to over 2,100 square feet with a comfortable, open feel from the moment you walk in. The main living area flows easily into the dining space and kitchen, where you’ll find a center island, plenty of cabinetry, and a sink perfectly positioned under a window bringing in natural light. A second living area with a fireplace gives you options for a media room, playroom, or additional entertaining space. The primary suite is generously sized with an en suite bath and a large closet, while four additional bedrooms offer plenty of room for family, guests, or a home office setup. With two more full bathrooms, the layout is both functional and accommodating. Outside, you’ll enjoy a large front porch deck and a covered back deck, ideal for relaxing or hosting. The detached carport includes its own storage room, and there’s an additional shed in the backyard for even more storage. Located on a quiet street just minutes from Lake Palestine and all that Chandler has to offer, this home checks a lot of boxes for space, value, and location. Come take a look and see if this one feels like home!

19. 2026-04-24
    status Active 1371-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1371 chars)

    Welcome home to this one of a kind 5 bedroom, 3 full bath manufactured home in the Gale Ridge addition of Chandler, TX! Sitting on a large lot, this property offers the space, layout, and flexibility that’s hard to find at this price point. Step inside to over 2,100 square feet with a comfortable, open feel from the moment you walk in. The main living area flows easily into the dining space and kitchen, where you’ll find a center island, plenty of cabinetry, and a sink perfectly positioned under a window bringing in natural light. A second living area with a fireplace gives you options for a media room, playroom, or additional entertaining space. The primary suite is generously sized with an en suite bath and a large closet, while four additional bedrooms offer plenty of room for family, guests, or a home office setup. With two more full bathrooms, the layout is both functional and accommodating. Outside, you’ll enjoy a large front porch deck and a covered back deck, ideal for relaxing or hosting. The detached carport includes its own storage room, and there’s an additional shed in the backyard for even more storage. Located on a quiet street just minutes from Lake Palestine and all that Chandler has to offer, this home checks a lot of boxes for space, value, and location. Come take a look and see if this one feels like home!

20. 2026-04-14
    status Pending 1371-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1371 chars)

    Welcome home to this one of a kind 5 bedroom, 3 full bath manufactured home in the Gale Ridge addition of Chandler, TX! Sitting on a large lot, this property offers the space, layout, and flexibility that’s hard to find at this price point. Step inside to over 2,100 square feet with a comfortable, open feel from the moment you walk in. The main living area flows easily into the dining space and kitchen, where you’ll find a center island, plenty of cabinetry, and a sink perfectly positioned under a window bringing in natural light. A second living area with a fireplace gives you options for a media room, playroom, or additional entertaining space. The primary suite is generously sized with an en suite bath and a large closet, while four additional bedrooms offer plenty of room for family, guests, or a home office setup. With two more full bathrooms, the layout is both functional and accommodating. Outside, you’ll enjoy a large front porch deck and a covered back deck, ideal for relaxing or hosting. The detached carport includes its own storage room, and there’s an additional shed in the backyard for even more storage. Located on a quiet street just minutes from Lake Palestine and all that Chandler has to offer, this home checks a lot of boxes for space, value, and location. Come take a look and see if this one feels like home!

21. 2026-04-14
    historical Active Option Contract 1371-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1371 chars)

    Welcome home to this one of a kind 5 bedroom, 3 full bath manufactured home in the Gale Ridge addition of Chandler, TX! Sitting on a large lot, this property offers the space, layout, and flexibility that’s hard to find at this price point. Step inside to over 2,100 square feet with a comfortable, open feel from the moment you walk in. The main living area flows easily into the dining space and kitchen, where you’ll find a center island, plenty of cabinetry, and a sink perfectly positioned under a window bringing in natural light. A second living area with a fireplace gives you options for a media room, playroom, or additional entertaining space. The primary suite is generously sized with an en suite bath and a large closet, while four additional bedrooms offer plenty of room for family, guests, or a home office setup. With two more full bathrooms, the layout is both functional and accommodating. Outside, you’ll enjoy a large front porch deck and a covered back deck, ideal for relaxing or hosting. The detached carport includes its own storage room, and there’s an additional shed in the backyard for even more storage. Located on a quiet street just minutes from Lake Palestine and all that Chandler has to offer, this home checks a lot of boxes for space, value, and location. Come take a look and see if this one feels like home!

22. 2026-04-07
    listed $219,000 Active 1371-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1371 chars)

    Welcome home to this one of a kind 5 bedroom, 3 full bath manufactured home in the Gale Ridge addition of Chandler, TX! Sitting on a large lot, this property offers the space, layout, and flexibility that’s hard to find at this price point. Step inside to over 2,100 square feet with a comfortable, open feel from the moment you walk in. The main living area flows easily into the dining space and kitchen, where you’ll find a center island, plenty of cabinetry, and a sink perfectly positioned under a window bringing in natural light. A second living area with a fireplace gives you options for a media room, playroom, or additional entertaining space. The primary suite is generously sized with an en suite bath and a large closet, while four additional bedrooms offer plenty of room for family, guests, or a home office setup. With two more full bathrooms, the layout is both functional and accommodating. Outside, you’ll enjoy a large front porch deck and a covered back deck, ideal for relaxing or hosting. The detached carport includes its own storage room, and there’s an additional shed in the backyard for even more storage. Located on a quiet street just minutes from Lake Palestine and all that Chandler has to offer, this home checks a lot of boxes for space, value, and location. Come take a look and see if this one feels like home!

23. 2026-04-06
    listed $219,000 Active 1371-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1371 chars)

    Welcome home to this one of a kind 5 bedroom, 3 full bath manufactured home in the Gale Ridge addition of Chandler, TX! Sitting on a large lot, this property offers the space, layout, and flexibility that’s hard to find at this price point. Step inside to over 2,100 square feet with a comfortable, open feel from the moment you walk in. The main living area flows easily into the dining space and kitchen, where you’ll find a center island, plenty of cabinetry, and a sink perfectly positioned under a window bringing in natural light. A second living area with a fireplace gives you options for a media room, playroom, or additional entertaining space. The primary suite is generously sized with an en suite bath and a large closet, while four additional bedrooms offer plenty of room for family, guests, or a home office setup. With two more full bathrooms, the layout is both functional and accommodating. Outside, you’ll enjoy a large front porch deck and a covered back deck, ideal for relaxing or hosting. The detached carport includes its own storage room, and there’s an additional shed in the backyard for even more storage. Located on a quiet street just minutes from Lake Palestine and all that Chandler has to offer, this home checks a lot of boxes for space, value, and location. Come take a look and see if this one feels like home!

24. 2018-05-04
    soldstatus
25. 2014-09-23
    soldstatus
26. 2008-08-04
    soldstatus
27. 2006-05-17
    soldstatus
28. 2006-03-01
    soldstatus
29. 2003-09-03
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,048 · $171/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,642 · $303/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,593/yr (+$133/mo · 77.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 60% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,336
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$2,048
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,627
• − Management: −$1,627
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$2,897
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$695
• After-tax cash flow: $1,195/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brownsboro ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811640
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $45,624
• Composite: 37.38/100
• National rank: #4429
• State rank: #290 of 826 in TX

Livability — Chandler

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #347
• US rank: #7634

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,357

Population outlook (Henderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,471 people
• By 2030: 80,608 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 80,087 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 78,208 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 72,423 · -10.0%
• By 2100: 61,012 · -24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 9% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Henderson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.5) · D 18.0% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: -44.6pp · 2024: -63.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.5 2020: R+60.2 2016: R+60.0 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -73.16%
• Current HPI: 192.0837
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.6% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $209,000 NTREIS
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $209,000 GTAR
• 2026-04-24 Relisted — GTAR
• 2026-04-24 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-04-14 Pending — GTAR
• 2026-04-14 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-04-07 Listed $219,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-06 Listed $219,000 GTAR
• 2018-05-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-09-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2008-08-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-05-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-03-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-09-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,048 · +8.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.