172 Bonnie Dr · Auburndale, FL 33823

$117,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 840 sqft · Manufactured public records · 129 Days on market

Built 1979 6,029 sqft lot $39/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.4/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

CANAL PROPERTY with access to Lake Marianna is located in the desirable community of Marianna Park. This 55+ community has low HOA fees and you own the land! 2-bedroom home has split bedroom plan with walk-in closet in master. Newly updated interior with laminate flooring and updated kitchen and bathrooms. Kitchen has wood cabinets and a divider with glass shelves. Home boasts new ceiling fans and fresh paint. Florida room is 12X16. Attached shed has plenty of space for storage and includes laundry area. Your back yard leads to the canal where you can park your boat. There is a community clubhouse and also a community boat ramp. Lots of activities. Don't miss out on your opportunity to own canal property. Fish from your backyard! Call today to schedule your private viewing!

Key facts

• Modernized kitchen
• 6,029 sq ft lot
• Parking

Tags

• DIRECT ACCESS TO LAKE MARIANNA
• MODERNIZED KITCHEN
• GENEROUS FLORIDA ROOM
• ATTACHED SHED WITH LAUNDRY
• BACKYARD OPENS TO CANAL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Association name: Betty Lamb
• Financial info: Total annual fees: $468; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA (monthly fee $39) with clubhouse and owned association recreation; Buyer approval required for association; Deed restrictions; Golf carts allowed; Senior community; Pets allowed (number and size limits apply)

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured home (single wide); One story; Faces east
• Construction: Metal siding; Metal roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as a manufactured home
• Exterior features: On waterfront (canal frontage); Water access to Lake Marianna; Skiing allowed on the lake; Road surface: Asphalt

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Laundry: Other; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $117k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $416 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $117k).
• Recommended offer: $103k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#48 in FL, #905 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute C-.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 476 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $809 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.2% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($103k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $13k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $91k; 29% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $102,960 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
7. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
8. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.24%
• DSCR: 1.68
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.18% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.24×
• Total profit: $7,844
• Equity at exit: $17,445

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.29×
• Total profit: $42,212
• Equity at exit: $10,116

Cash invested: $32,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33823

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 476
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,553 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$614
• Tax from tax record: −$110 /mo · $1,318/yr
• Insurance: −$49
• HOA: −$39
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$326
• Net cashflow: $416

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,027

Max offer price $117,000

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $482	-5% $449	+0% $416	+5% $383	+10% $350
Rent	-10% $293	-5% $355	+0% $416	+5% $477	+10% $539
Rate	-1.0pp $475	-0.5pp $446	base $416	+0.5pp $386	+1.0pp $355

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,250
• Closing costs: $3,510
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
711 Lake Jessie Dr Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	884	$1,400	$1.58	24d	1	0.66mi
249 Century Blvd Unit A Auburndale, FL	2.0	1.0	870	$1,350	$1.55	3d	1	0.90mi
507 Twin Pines Ln Unit C Auburndale, FL	2.0	1.0	640	$1,000	$1.56	15d	1	0.92mi
192 Julie Ln Auburndale, FL	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,650	$1.47	24d	1	1.00mi
912 Lake Jessie Dr Unit A Winter Haven, FL	1.0	1.0	800	$1,800	$2.25	3d	1	1.11mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $39 · $468/yr

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-02
   price $117,000
2. 2026-04-01
   price $119,900
3. 2026-02-19
   price $125,900
4. 2026-01-19
   listed $129,900 Active
5. 2022-03-13
   soldstatus $91,000 Closed 784-char remark

   Show marketing remark (784 chars)

   CANAL PROPERTY with access to Lake Marianna is located in the desirable community of Marianna Park. This 55+ community has low HOA fees and you own the land! 2-bedroom home has split bedroom plan with walk-in closet in master. Newly updated interior with laminate flooring and updated kitchen and bathrooms. Kitchen has wood cabinets and a divider with glass shelves. Home boasts new ceiling fans and fresh paint. Florida room is 12X16. Attached shed has plenty of space for storage and includes laundry area. Your back yard leads to the canal where you can park your boat. There is a community clubhouse and also a community boat ramp. Lots of activities. Don't miss out on your opportunity to own canal property. Fish from your backyard! Call today to schedule your private viewing!

6. 2022-03-11
   soldstatus $91,000
7. 2022-02-18
   status Pending 784-char remark

   Show marketing remark (784 chars)

   CANAL PROPERTY with access to Lake Marianna is located in the desirable community of Marianna Park. This 55+ community has low HOA fees and you own the land! 2-bedroom home has split bedroom plan with walk-in closet in master. Newly updated interior with laminate flooring and updated kitchen and bathrooms. Kitchen has wood cabinets and a divider with glass shelves. Home boasts new ceiling fans and fresh paint. Florida room is 12X16. Attached shed has plenty of space for storage and includes laundry area. Your back yard leads to the canal where you can park your boat. There is a community clubhouse and also a community boat ramp. Lots of activities. Don't miss out on your opportunity to own canal property. Fish from your backyard! Call today to schedule your private viewing!

8. 2022-01-30
   listed $99,900 Active 784-char remark

   Show marketing remark (784 chars)

   CANAL PROPERTY with access to Lake Marianna is located in the desirable community of Marianna Park. This 55+ community has low HOA fees and you own the land! 2-bedroom home has split bedroom plan with walk-in closet in master. Newly updated interior with laminate flooring and updated kitchen and bathrooms. Kitchen has wood cabinets and a divider with glass shelves. Home boasts new ceiling fans and fresh paint. Florida room is 12X16. Attached shed has plenty of space for storage and includes laundry area. Your back yard leads to the canal where you can park your boat. There is a community clubhouse and also a community boat ramp. Lots of activities. Don't miss out on your opportunity to own canal property. Fish from your backyard! Call today to schedule your private viewing!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,318 · $110/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,318 · $110/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,640
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,554
• − Property taxes: −$1,318
• − Insurance: −$585
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,491
• − Management: −$1,491
• − HOA: −$468
• − Depreciation: −$3,404
• Taxable income: $3,330
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$799
• After-tax cash flow: $4,193/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Auburndale

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #48
• US rank: #905

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute C- Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Auburndale, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 41,779
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 41,779
• Household income: $71,485
• Rent vs Own: 24.8% rent · 75.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 821.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 19% Black 13% Two or more races 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, Philippines
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 15% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.70%
• Current HPI: 316.9436
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.18%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+17.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $117,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $119,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $125,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-19 Listed $129,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-03-13 Sold (MLS) $91,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-03-11 Sold (Public Records) $91,000 Public Records
• 2022-02-18 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-01-30 Listed $99,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+21.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,318 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.