16172 Chancas St · Spring Hill, FL 34604

$159,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 35 Days on market

Built 2001 6,871 sqft lot Est $175k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.2/30.0
• ARV discount +11.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

HUD property sold as-is. Case no. 093-617844 Information from sources deemed to be reliable but not guaranteed. Buyer to verify all information. This home is priced below market and is a true must see.

Key facts

• 6,871 sq ft lot
• Built 2001
• Listed 35 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential, Single Family Residence; Lot approximately 0.16 acres (0 to less than 1/4 acre); Road surface: dirt and paved; Living area about 960 square feet; Furnished: Unfurnished; Universal property ID available
• HOA & community: Pets allowed; No HOA/association

Exterior

• Parking: Directions: Powell to California to Chancas
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Cable available; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Faces west
• Construction: Vinyl siding and frame construction; Metal roof; Slab foundation; Built as a residential single-family home
• Exterior features: Private mailbox

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open living room and dining room combo; Solid wood cabinets; Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $142 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $153k (3.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $153k (3.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 4.4% in Spring Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#738 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Hernando (suburban): math 50% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #38 of 73 in FL (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 196 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 2,505 units permitted in Hernando County in 2024 (318 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hernando County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $27k; list at $159k implies a 489% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $153,200 (3.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 4% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.83%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $174,720
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16172 Chancas St	0.00mi	2/2.0	960 (0%)	0mo	$140,000	$146	100
16160 Sarasota St	0.17mi	2/2.0	924 (-4%)	22mo	$168,000	$182	67
4307 Orlando Ave	0.27mi	2/2.0	910 (-5%)	19mo	$143,000	$157	63
16130 Schaffer St	0.10mi	2/2.0	840 (-12%)	18mo	$134,900	$161	60
16094 Putnam St	0.37mi	2/2.0	901 (-6%)	20mo	$184,000	$204	56
16076 Narrow St	0.16mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,067 (+11%)	16mo	$195,000	$183	56
16066 Narrow St	0.18mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,067 (+11%)	16mo	$198,000	$186	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-18,830
• Equity at exit: $23,707

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-13,166
• Equity at exit: $13,747

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34604

• Home prices YoY: -23.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 196
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,532 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax from tax record: −$168 /mo · $2,019/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$322
• Net cashflow: $142

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,352

Max offer price $159,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $232	-5% $187	+0% $142	+5% $97	+10% $52
Rent	-10% $21	-5% $81	+0% $142	+5% $203	+10% $263
Rate	-1.0pp $222	-0.5pp $182	base $142	+0.5pp $101	+1.0pp $59

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16108 Putnam St Brooksville, FL	1.0	1.0	960	$1,000	$1.04	19d	1	0.40mi
286 Cherry Birch LN Masaryktown, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	964	$1,702	$1.77	0d	44	0.61mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-18
   price $159,000
3. 2026-05-05
   price $169,000
4. 2026-04-24
   price $179,000
5. 2026-04-17
   listed $185,000 Active
6. 2015-08-12
   soldstatus $27,000 201-char remark

   Show marketing remark (201 chars)

   HUD property sold as-is. Case no. 093-617844 Information from sources deemed to be reliable but not guaranteed. Buyer to verify all information. This home is priced below market and is a true must see.

7. 2015-07-02
   listed $25,000 201-char remark

   Show marketing remark (201 chars)

   HUD property sold as-is. Case no. 093-617844 Information from sources deemed to be reliable but not guaranteed. Buyer to verify all information. This home is priced below market and is a true must see.

8. 2005-08-02
   soldstatus $77,000
9. 2005-04-19
   listed $74,990
10. 2004-11-17
    soldstatus $66,000
11. 2004-11-10
    soldstatus $66,000
12. 2004-02-27
    listed $69,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,019 · $168/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,019 · $168/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,384
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$2,019
• − Insurance: −$795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,471
• − Management: −$1,471
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable loss: −$903
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$217
• After-tax cash flow: $1,921/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hernando
• NCES district ID: 1200810
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,985
• Composite: 42.03/100
• National rank: #3329
• State rank: #38 of 73 in FL

Livability — Spring Hill

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #738
• US rank: #15937

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Spring Hill, FL
• County: Hernando County · 169,677 people
• City population: 83,915
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 13,642
• Household income: $84,833
• Rent vs Own: 8.5% rent · 91.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 142.0

Population outlook (Hernando County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 189,218 people
• By 2030: 194,367 · +2.7%
• By 2040: 203,398 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 209,589 · +10.8%
• By 2075: 218,452 · +15.4%
• By 2100: 205,923 · +8.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 10% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hernando

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.0) · D 31.1% · R 68.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.5pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -37.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.0 2020: R+30.2 2016: R+29.0 2012: R+8.5 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.38%
• Current HPI: 276.4751
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.61%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+127.5% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $159,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $169,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $179,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-17 Listed $185,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-08-12 Sold (MLS) $27,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-07-02 Listed $25,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-08-02 Sold (Public Records) $77,000 Public Records
• 2005-04-19 Listed $74,990 HCAR
• 2004-11-17 Sold (Public Records) $66,000 Public Records
• 2004-11-10 Sold (MLS) $66,000 HCAR
• 2004-02-27 Listed $69,900 HCAR

Property tax history

+17.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,019 · -1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.