1403 NE 20th Ave · Gainesville, FL 32609

$230,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,501 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 205 Days on market

Built 1956 0.25 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

New PRICE ADJUSTMENT! This newly updated ranch home is located conveniently in the trendy NE neighborhood. Lots of space for the price! Roof is reported to be 2017 or newer. Kitchen updates include stainless appliances. Bathrooms with newer fixtures. Laminate hardwood floors for easy of maintenance. Storage shed remains. Plenty of yard for pets or gardening.

Key facts

• Updated ranch home
• Stainless appliances
• Newer fixtures

Tags

• UPDATED RANCH HOME
• STAINLESS APPLIANCES
• NEWER FIXTURES
• LAMINATE HARDWOOD FLOORS
• STORAGE SHED
• PLENTY OF YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-108 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $211k (8.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $196k (14.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $196k (14.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#97 in FL, #1,480 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F.
• Alachua (urban): math 49% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #30 of 73 in FL (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: W. A. Metcalfe Elementary School (math 37% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,896 of 2,144 statewide, top 90%, 478 students, 88% FRL); Howard W. Bishop Middle School (math 52% / reading 56%, grade B-, #196 of 571 statewide, top 36%, 823 students, 58% FRL); Eastside High School (math 29% / reading 56%, grade F, #264 of 667 statewide, top 41%, 1,220 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools average 67% FRL vs 48% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 111 active listings in the ZIP; 1,774 units permitted in Alachua County in 2024 (984 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,960/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($49k/yr) (locally 1037% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alachua County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 205 days — a 12% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $18k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $158k; 46% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $195,970 (14.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 205 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.73%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.02%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-42,027
• Equity at exit: $34,294

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-36,510
• Equity at exit: $19,886

Cash invested: $64,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32609

• Home prices YoY: -23.5%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 111
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,960 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$355 /mo · $4,254/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$412
• Net cashflow: $-108

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,097

Max offer price $210,862

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $22	-5% $-43	+0% $-108	+5% $-173	+10% $-239
Rent	-10% $-263	-5% $-186	+0% $-108	+5% $-31	+10% $46
Rate	-1.0pp $7	-0.5pp $-50	base $-108	+0.5pp $-168	+1.0pp $-229

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,500
• Closing costs: $6,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $230,000 Active 205 DOM
2. 2026-05-30
   days on market $230,000 Active 204 DOM
3. 2025-12-30
   price $230,000 363-char remark

   Show marketing remark (363 chars)

   New PRICE ADJUSTMENT! This newly updated ranch home is located conveniently in the trendy NE neighborhood. Lots of space for the price! Roof is reported to be 2017 or newer. Kitchen updates include stainless appliances. Bathrooms with newer fixtures. Laminate hardwood floors for easy of maintenance. Storage shed remains. Plenty of yard for pets or gardening.

4. 2025-11-07
   listed $247,500 Active 363-char remark

   Show marketing remark (363 chars)

   New PRICE ADJUSTMENT! This newly updated ranch home is located conveniently in the trendy NE neighborhood. Lots of space for the price! Roof is reported to be 2017 or newer. Kitchen updates include stainless appliances. Bathrooms with newer fixtures. Laminate hardwood floors for easy of maintenance. Storage shed remains. Plenty of yard for pets or gardening.

5. 2021-02-08
   soldstatus $158,000 1174-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1174 chars)

   Come see this gem today. Rare 1500 square foot, 4 bedroom 2 Bath home in Carol Estates. This home is walkable to Tom Petty Park, Satchel''s, Public & General, schools and is easily a short bike ride to Downtown and UF! The home boasts a large, 20ft x 17ft, main bedroom with two closets, new paint & carpet last fall. Large main living room has a fireplace and side built-ins. Indoor utility/laundry room allows you to get those clothes done later! Take a break and relax in your own little oasis in the 12''x45'' screened/covered/ back porch with Koi pond & enclosed hot tub. Large privacy fenced back yard with storage shed. The home does need some attention and updating but the sellers have done much of the hard work for you. All windows were replaced with double pane windows. New energy efficient HVAC with remote control & UV to kill germs & viruses. Plumbing replaced, Roof replaced in 2010, Exterior re-painted last fall, well & pump just for watering landscape, whole house water softener (Rainsoft), solar hot water heater and continuous termite protection contract. Schedule your showing today as this one will not last long.

6. 2020-12-04
   listed $149,900 1174-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1174 chars)

   Come see this gem today. Rare 1500 square foot, 4 bedroom 2 Bath home in Carol Estates. This home is walkable to Tom Petty Park, Satchel''s, Public & General, schools and is easily a short bike ride to Downtown and UF! The home boasts a large, 20ft x 17ft, main bedroom with two closets, new paint & carpet last fall. Large main living room has a fireplace and side built-ins. Indoor utility/laundry room allows you to get those clothes done later! Take a break and relax in your own little oasis in the 12''x45'' screened/covered/ back porch with Koi pond & enclosed hot tub. Large privacy fenced back yard with storage shed. The home does need some attention and updating but the sellers have done much of the hard work for you. All windows were replaced with double pane windows. New energy efficient HVAC with remote control & UV to kill germs & viruses. Plumbing replaced, Roof replaced in 2010, Exterior re-painted last fall, well & pump just for watering landscape, whole house water softener (Rainsoft), solar hot water heater and continuous termite protection contract. Schedule your showing today as this one will not last long.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,254 · $355/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,254 · $355/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,516
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,884
• − Property taxes: −$4,254
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,881
• − Management: −$1,881
• − Depreciation: −$6,691
• Taxable loss: −$5,225
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,254
• After-tax cash flow: $-46/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alachua
• NCES district ID: 1200030
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,683
• Composite: 43.31/100
• National rank: #3038
• State rank: #30 of 73 in FL

Livability — Gainesville

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #97
• US rank: #1480

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gainesville, FL
• County: Alachua County · 218,005 people
• City population: 188,348
• Metro: Gainesville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 19,752
• Household income: $49,406
• Rent vs Own: 48.8% rent · 51.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1037.0

Population outlook (Alachua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 289,834 people
• By 2030: 305,873 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 335,246 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 364,719 · +25.8%
• By 2075: 436,665 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 482,920 · +66.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Black 33% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Alachua

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.0) · D 59.7% · R 38.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.6pp no change · 2008: 21.6pp · 2024: 21.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.0 2020: D+27.2 2016: D+22.5 2012: D+17.3 2008: D+21.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.25%
• Current HPI: 304.1951
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.04%
• Metro: Gainesville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+53.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-30 Price Changed $230,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-07 Listed $247,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-02-08 Sold (MLS) $158,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-12-04 Listed $149,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+16.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,254 · +7.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.