5212 Carnifix Ct · Shenandoah, LA 70817

$165,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 35 Days on market

Built 1984 3,092 sqft lot Est $223k · 26% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Walking distance to Waffle House, Movie Theatre, Albertsons, Georges Restaurant, McDonalds. Perfect location near many stores.

Key facts

• 3,092 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1984

Tags

• WALKING DISTANCE TO ALBERTSONS
• WALKING DISTANCE TO MCDONALDS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Garage with automatic door opener
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Detached single-family residence; Updated/remodeled condition; 2 stories
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle/composition roof; Slab foundation; Built as residential single-family
• Exterior features: Located on a cul-de-sac; Level topography; Sidewalks (community)

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Oven; Electric cooktop; Dishwasher; Disposal
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans; Attic fan
• Interior features: Fireplace (1); Balcony
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $273 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $160k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 3.9% in Shenandoah — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#16 in LA, #3,778 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• East Baton Rouge Parish (urban): math 22% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #47 of 98 in LA (top 48%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Shenandoah Elementary School (math 52% / reading 55%, grade C, #100 of 646 statewide, top 16%, 703 students, 58% FRL); Woodlawn Middle School (math 20% / reading 39%, grade F, #116 of 218 statewide, top 53%, 887 students, 69% FRL); Woodlawn High School (math 25% / reading 30%, grade F, #133 of 265 statewide, top 51%, 1,527 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 361 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 41% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,252 units permitted in East Baton Rouge Parish in 2024 (440 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• East Baton Rouge County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 25y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $160,050 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.08%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $223,200
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5212 Carnifix Ct	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,440 (0%)	1mo	$165,000	$115	99
5101 Paducah Ct	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,320 (-8%)	4mo	$199,500	$151	79
15725 Springwood Ave	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,411 (-2%)	4mo	$219,000	$155	76
5111 Paducah Ct	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,263 (-12%)	5mo	$199,500	$158	73
15588 Springwood Ave	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,490 (+4%)	4mo	$195,000	$131	70
15521 Summerwood Ave	0.48mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,410 (-2%)	4mo	$225,000	$160	66
15463 Springwood Ave	0.53mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,382 (-4%)	4mo	$159,000	$115	60
15465 Summerwood Ave	0.50mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,510 (+5%)	4mo	$169,900	$113	60
15443 Springwood Ave	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,348 (-6%)	8mo	$219,000	$162	57
15512 Summerwood Ave	0.47mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,354 (-6%)	10mo	$189,000	$140	55
3988 Meadow Ridge Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,642 (+14%)	2mo	$295,000	$180	54
3978 Meadow Ridge Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,615 (+12%)	8mo	$279,900	$173	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-11,004
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $6,219
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70817

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 361
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,702 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$138 /mo · $1,658/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$357
• Net cashflow: $273

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,357

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $366	-5% $319	+0% $273	+5% $226	+10% $179
Rent	-10% $138	-5% $205	+0% $273	+5% $340	+10% $407
Rate	-1.0pp $356	-0.5pp $315	base $273	+0.5pp $230	+1.0pp $186

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5213 Berryville Ct Baton Rouge, LA	3.0	2.0	1237	$1,750	$1.41	16d	1	0.08mi
4810 Kennesaw Dr Unit 4810-C Baton Rouge, LA	3.0	2.0	1275	$1,100	$0.86	45d	1	0.17mi
16534 George Oneal Rd Apt C Baton Rouge, LA	2.0	1.5	900	$950	$1.06	25d	1	0.24mi
5157 Cumberland Cove Dr Baton Rouge, LA	3.0	2.0	1159	$1,650	$1.42	16d	1	0.27mi
4844 Mokki Ln Baton Rouge, LA	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,690	$1.17	45d	1	0.37mi
4804 Mokki Ln Baton Rouge, LA	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,875	$1.30	22d	1	0.38mi
15580 George Oneal Rd Baton Rouge, LA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1063	$1,510	$1.42	16d	8	0.40mi
15444 Summerwood Ave Baton Rouge, LA	2.0	2.0	1323	$1,650	$1.25	25d	1	0.51mi
5714 Ardmore Dr Baton Rouge, LA	3.0	2.0	1700	$1,700	$1.00	16d	1	0.59mi
6410 Roux Dr Baton Rouge, LA	3.0	2.5	1827	$2,125	$1.16	45d	1	0.89mi
15513 Fields Creek Ave Baton Rouge, LA	3.0	2.0	1595	$2,295	$1.44	25d	1	0.98mi
4719 Mendocino Way Baton Rouge, LA	4.0	2.0	1704	$2,200	$1.29	16d	1	0.99mi
3482 King Bradford Dr Baton Rouge, LA	2.0	2.0	980	$1,100	$1.12	25d	1	1.01mi
15959 Tiger Bend Rd Baton Rouge, LA	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	934	$1,265	$1.35	16d	3	1.04mi
17235 Terrance Ave Baton Rouge, LA	3.0	2.0	1256	$1,590	$1.27	16d	1	1.06mi
14142 Watercrest Ln Baton Rouge, LA	3.0	3.0	1875	$2,300	$1.23	16d	1	1.09mi
3412 Yorkfield Dr Baton Rouge, LA	2.0	1.5	1128	$950	$0.84	45d	1	1.13mi
3412 Yorkfield Dr Unit D Baton Rouge, LA	2.0	1.5	1010	$900	$0.89	25d	1	1.13mi
3412 Yorkfield Dr Unit D Baton Rouge, LA	2.0	1.5	1010	$1,000	$0.99	45d	1	1.13mi
13675 Coursey Blvd Baton Rouge, LA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	951	$1,300	$1.37	45d	23	1.27mi
16625 Poe Ave Baton Rouge, LA	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.0	1763	$1,995	$1.13	16d	6	1.30mi
16625 Poe Ave Baton Rouge, LA	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.0	1698	$1,895	$1.12	46d	1	1.30mi
5113 Sandy Ridge Dr Baton Rouge, LA	3.0	2.0	1812	$1,695	$0.94	22d	1	1.32mi
2931 Niccoline Way Baton Rouge, LA	3.0	2.0	1436	$2,000	$1.39	45d	1	1.34mi
16218 Thorncrown Ln Baton Rouge, LA	2.0	2.0	1383	$1,800	$1.30	46d	1	1.36mi
2989 O'Neal Ln Unit 2989 Baton Rouge, LA	2.0	1.5	1073	$900	$0.84	45d	1	1.36mi
7004 Spring Gardens Dr Baton Rouge, LA	3.0	2.0	1630	$2,000	$1.23	45d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-21
   status Pending 126-char remark

   Show marketing remark (126 chars)

   Walking distance to Waffle House, Movie Theatre, Albertsons, Georges Restaurant, McDonalds. Perfect location near many stores.

2. 2026-04-21
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (126 chars)

   Walking distance to Waffle House, Movie Theatre, Albertsons, Georges Restaurant, McDonalds. Perfect location near many stores.

3. 2026-04-01
   price $165,000 126-char remark

   Show marketing remark (126 chars)

   Walking distance to Waffle House, Movie Theatre, Albertsons, Georges Restaurant, McDonalds. Perfect location near many stores.

4. 2026-04-01
   price $165,000

   Show marketing remark (126 chars)

   Walking distance to Waffle House, Movie Theatre, Albertsons, Georges Restaurant, McDonalds. Perfect location near many stores.

5. 2026-03-11
   listed $175,000 Active 126-char remark

   Show marketing remark (126 chars)

   Walking distance to Waffle House, Movie Theatre, Albertsons, Georges Restaurant, McDonalds. Perfect location near many stores.

6. 2026-03-11
   listed $175,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (126 chars)

   Walking distance to Waffle House, Movie Theatre, Albertsons, Georges Restaurant, McDonalds. Perfect location near many stores.

7. 2002-03-28
   listed $91,500
8. 2001-08-31
   listed $91,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,658 · $138/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,658 · $138/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,428
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$1,658
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,634
• − Management: −$1,634
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $633
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$152
• After-tax cash flow: $3,119/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Baton Rouge Parish
• NCES district ID: 2200540
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -36.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -31.00%
• Median HH income: $46,263
• Composite: 24.14/100
• National rank: #7745
• State rank: #47 of 98 in LA

Livability — Shenandoah

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3778

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shenandoah, LA
• County: East Baton Rouge Parish · 399,686 people
• Metro: Baton Rouge, LA
• Population (ZIP): 33,482
• Household income: $102,639
• Rent vs Own: 20.0% rent · 80.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 755.0

Population outlook (East Baton Rouge County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 464,810 people
• By 2030: 472,137 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 480,243 · +3.3%
• By 2050: 484,422 · +4.2%
• By 2075: 492,069 · +5.9%
• By 2100: 476,347 · +2.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Black 21% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 13% Italian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 3% Arabic 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · East Baton Rouge

• 2024 margin: D (+11.1) · D 54.5% · R 43.4% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +8.9pp toward D · 2008: 2.2pp · 2024: 11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+11.1 2020: D+13.1 2016: D+9.2 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -149.27%
• Current HPI: 170.6826
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• Metro: Baton Rouge, LA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+79.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Pending — AcadianaMLS
• 2026-04-21 Pending — GBRMLS
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $165,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $165,000 GBRMLS
• 2026-03-11 Listed $175,000 GBRMLS
• 2026-03-11 Listed $175,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2002-03-28 Listed $91,500 AcadianaMLS
• 2001-08-31 Listed $91,900 AcadianaMLS

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,658 · -0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.