1 Beach 565-P · Manson, WA 98831

$7,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 964 sqft · Timeshare · 1399 Days on market

Built 1988 $8/sqft · waterfront premium $263/mo HOA · 14% of rent ↓ 25% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

GROUND Floor 2 bed 2 bath waterfront luxury suite. Lake Views! Buy NOW & use March 19-26, July 16-23 (Rented for Instant Income) & November 12-19 in 2026. April 15-22, August 12-19 & Dec 9-16 in 2027. If you prefer to use July 16-23, 2026 week, you can have access to unit 566-M. Enjoy 3 rotating weeks every year. Waterfront, Lawn, Trails & Boat Moorage directly in front of condo. HOA fees $788 per quarter allows you the most affordable way to experience all seasons the Lake Chelan Valley has to offer. Use your weeks, rent for income or trade thru RCI or Interval International and visit other places. Purchase includes use of boat docks, slips, buoys, indoor/outdoor p

Key facts

• $263 HOA
• Parking
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath timeshare listed at $8k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $8k).
• Recommended offer: $7k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 188.7% vs local median 2.9% in Manson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#421 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living D+, employment D.
• Manson School District (town): math 42% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #211 of 291 in WA (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 214 active listings in the ZIP; 762 units permitted in Chelan County in 2024 (377 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $52 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $225 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chelan County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $2k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 1399 days — a 12% lower offer ($7k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask is 114% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $2k; list at $8k implies a 275% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $6,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 1399 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
8. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
9. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 24.56% ✓
• Cap rate: 188.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 651.55%
• DSCR: 29.99
• GRM: 0.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,940
• List price: $7,500
• Delta: 54.65%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1 Beach 549-I	0.07mi	2/2.0	964 (0%)	2mo	$1	—	96
1 Beach 553-A	0.03mi	2/2.0	964 (0%)	4mo	$3,500	$4	96
1 Beach 534-O	0.06mi	2/2.0	964 (0%)	4mo	$2,600	$3	94
1 Beach 536-J	0.05mi	2/2.0	964 (0%)	8mo	$1	—	90
1 Lakeside 720-P	0.23mi	2/2.0	981 (+2%)	4mo	$1,000	$1	83
1 Lakeside 701-B	0.28mi	2/2.0	981 (+2%)	2mo	$2,000	$2	82
1 Lakeside 711-F	0.26mi	2/2.0	981 (+2%)	4mo	$4,500	$5	82
1 Lakeside 720-H	0.23mi	2/2.0	981 (+2%)	6mo	$1	—	81
1 Lodge 632-C	0.29mi	2/2.0	981 (+2%)	4mo	$500	$1	80
1 Lakeside 715-Q	0.23mi	2/2.0	981 (+2%)	8mo	$3,500	$4	80
1 Beach 538-C	0.68mi	2/2.0	964 (0%)	1mo	$1	—	68
1 Beach 542-C	0.68mi	2/2.0	964 (0%)	5mo	$3,500	$4	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 35.09×
• Total profit: $71,594
• Equity at exit: $1,118

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 75.58×
• Total profit: $156,623
• Equity at exit: $648

Cash invested: $2,100 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98831

• Active inventory: 214
• Price-to-rent: 0.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,842 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$39
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$9 /mo · $112/yr
• Insurance: −$3
• HOA: −$263
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$387
• Net cashflow: $1,140

Break-even live

Break-even rent $399

Max offer price $7,500

Occupancy floor 33%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,145	-5% $1,143	+0% $1,140	+5% $1,138	+10% $1,135
Rent	-10% $995	-5% $1,067	+0% $1,140	+5% $1,213	+10% $1,286
Rate	-1.0pp $1,144	-0.5pp $1,142	base $1,140	+0.5pp $1,138	+1.0pp $1,136

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $1,875
• Closing costs: $225
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $263 · $3,156/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $7,500 Active 1399 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $7,500 Active 1398 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   pricedays on marketlisting id $7,500 Active 1396 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $3,000 Active 169 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $3,000 Active 168 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $3,000 Active 167 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $3,000 Active 166 DOM
8. 2026-06-15
   days on market $3,000 Active 165 DOM
9. 2026-06-13
   days on market $3,000 Active 164 DOM
10. 2026-06-12
    days on market $3,000 Active 163 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    days on market $3,000 Active 160 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $3,000 Active 159 DOM
13. 2026-06-08
    days on market $3,000 Active 158 DOM
14. 2026-06-07
    days on market $3,000 Active 157 DOM
15. 2026-06-03
    days on market $3,000 Active 154 DOM
16. 2026-06-02
    days on market $3,000 Active 153 DOM
17. 2026-06-01
    days on market $3,000 Active 152 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $3,000 Active 151 DOM
19. 2026-02-11
    price $3,000
20. 2025-12-30
    listed $3,500 Active
21. 2022-08-21
    listed $7,500 Active
22. 2016-03-24
    soldstatus $2,000
23. 2016-03-05
    listed $4,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥95°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 23 unhealthy d/yr today · 25 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,102
• − Mortgage interest: −$420
• − Property taxes: −$112
• − Insurance: −$38
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,768
• − Management: −$1,768
• − HOA: −$3,156
• − Depreciation: −$218
• Taxable income: $14,621
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,509
• After-tax cash flow: $10,173/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manson School District
• NCES district ID: 5304740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,123
• Composite: 37.53/100
• National rank: #8876
• State rank: #211 of 291 in WA

Livability — Manson

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #421
• US rank: #16741

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing B- Health & safety C- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Manson, WA
• Population (ZIP): 4,020

Population outlook (Chelan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 81,630 people
• By 2030: 84,312 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 88,619 · +8.6%
• By 2050: 91,915 · +12.6%
• By 2075: 99,409 · +21.8%
• By 2100: 100,032 · +22.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (57%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 40% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Portuguese 5% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 38% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chelan

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.5) · D 43.9% · R 53.4% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.5pp toward D · 2008: -12.0pp · 2024: -9.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.5 2020: R+7.8 2016: R+15.7 2012: R+16.9 2008: R+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -325.60%
• Current HPI: 249.0392
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-25.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-11 Price Changed $3,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-30 Listed $3,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-21 Listed $7,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-03-24 Sold (MLS) $2,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-03-05 Listed $4,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid