511 3rd St · Manchester, IL 62663

$22,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,314 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 94 Days on market

Built 1900 0.25 ac lot $17/sqft · 79% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

"Cute and Quaint" all on a corner lot in Manchester, IL. Here is your opportunity to own a 5 room bungalow with 1 bedroom, living room, kitchen, full bath and a back entry room, having approximately 590 square feet of living space. This little fixer upper could be a doll house. Lot size is approximately 110' x 100'. Full disclosure: This property comes with a 1975 uninhabitable single wide mobile home with title.

Key facts

• 0.25 acre lot
• Parking
• Built 1900

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $22k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $610 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($964 rent vs $22k).
• Recommended offer: $20k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#928 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, employment D, schools D-.
• Winchester CUSD 1 (rural): math 26% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #281 of 620 in IL (top 45%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 2 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $812 of equity ($152 loan paydown + $660 appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Scott County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $6k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($20k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $12k; list at $22k implies a 83% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $20,020 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 39.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 118.79%
• DSCR: 6.29
• GRM: 1.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $45,957
• List price: $22,000
• Delta: -52.13%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 7.74×
• Total profit: $41,502
• Equity at exit: $9,892

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 16.15×
• Total profit: $93,337
• Equity at exit: $15,245

Cash invested: $6,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62663

• Active inventory: 2
• Price-to-rent: 1.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $964 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$115
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$28 /mo · $330/yr
• Insurance: −$9
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$203
• Net cashflow: $610

Break-even live

Break-even rent $192

Max offer price $22,000

Occupancy floor 32%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $625	-5% $617	+0% $610	+5% $602	+10% $595
Rent	-10% $534	-5% $572	+0% $610	+5% $648	+10% $686
Rate	-1.0pp $621	-0.5pp $615	base $610	+0.5pp $604	+1.0pp $598

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $5,500
• Closing costs: $660
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $22,000 Active 94 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $22,000 Active 92 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $22,000 Active 91 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $22,000 Active 90 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $22,000 Active 89 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $22,000 Active 87 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $22,000 Active 86 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $22,000 Active 83 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $22,000 Active 82 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $22,000 Active 81 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $22,000 Active 80 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $22,000 Active 77 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    price $22,000 Active 76 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $29,000 Active 76 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $29,000 Active 75 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $29,000 Active 74 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $29,000 Active 73 DOM
18. 2026-03-18
    listed $29,000 Active 426-char remark

    Show marketing remark (426 chars)

    "Cute and Quaint" all on a corner lot in Manchester, IL. Here is your opportunity to own a 5 room bungalow with 1 bedroom, living room, kitchen, full bath and a back entry room, having approximately 590 square feet of living space. This little fixer upper could be a doll house. Lot size is approximately 110' x 100'. Full disclosure: This property comes with a 1975 uninhabitable single wide mobile home with title.

19. 2008-06-02
    soldstatus $12,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,572
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,232
• − Property taxes: −$330
• − Insurance: −$110
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$926
• − Management: −$926
• − Depreciation: −$640
• Taxable income: $7,408
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,778
• After-tax cash flow: $5,539/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Winchester CUSD 1
• NCES district ID: 1742660
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $47,710
• Composite: 23.9/100
• National rank: #7792
• State rank: #281 of 620 in IL

Livability — Manchester

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #928
• US rank: #18030

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Manchester, IL
• City population: 187
• Population (ZIP): 187

Population outlook (Scott County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,701 people
• By 2030: 4,451 · -5.3%
• By 2040: 3,970 · -15.5%
• By 2050: 3,445 · -26.7%
• By 2075: 2,371 · -49.6%
• By 2100: 1,506 · -68.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (99%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 99% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Iranian 2% English 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Scott

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.2) · D 18.9% · R 80.0% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -47.1pp toward R · 2008: -14.0pp · 2024: -61.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.2 2020: R+56.3 2016: R+55.6 2012: R+26.5 2008: R+14.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+141.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-18 Listed $29,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-06-02 Sold (Public Records) $12,000 Public Records