13463 3rd St · Splendora, TX 77372

$122,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 50 Days on market

Built 1995 0.26 ac lot $101/sqft · 37% below area Est $195k · 37% under ↓ 18% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.9/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks

Well-maintained manufactured home on a spacious lot in Splendora TX offering updated systems, energy-efficient features, and easy access to Hwy 59/69, shopping, dining, and Splendora ISD. This move-in ready home features an open-concept layout with spacious living area and large kitchen offering abundant cabinet and counter space. The primary suite includes a walk-in closet and private bath, plus two additional bedrooms and second full bathroom. Recent updates include fresh interior and exterior paint, durable Hardie plank siding, updated septic system, double-pane windows, PEX plumbing, updated electrical wiring, insulated spray foam subfloor, and indoor HVAC system. The 4-year-old corruga

Key facts

• Hardie plank siding
• Walk-in closet
• Fresh interior paint

Tags

• WALK-IN CLOSET
• PRIVATE ENSUITE BATH
• FRESH INTERIOR PAINT
• FRESH EXTERIOR PAINT
• HARDIE PLANK SIDING
• CORRUGATED METAL ROOF

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1995; Slab foundation
• Construction: Metal roof
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (12 x 14); Second bedroom on the first floor (11 x 10); Total of 3 rooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Open kitchen-family layout; Kitchen-dining combo; Low-emissivity windows; Seller provided disclosure available
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $123k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $681 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $123k).
• Recommended offer: $119k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.9% vs local median 5.2% in Splendora — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#911 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Splendora ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #648 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Greenleaf El (math 28% / reading 25%, grade F, #2,927 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 797 students, 70% FRL); Splendora J H (math 28% / reading 42%, grade F, #842 of 1,662 statewide, top 51%, 774 students, 62% FRL); Splendora H S (math 18% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,170 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 1,344 students, 59% FRL).
• Market conditions: 550 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $850 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $119,213 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.49% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.75%
• DSCR: 2.06
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $195,301
• List price: $122,900
• Delta: -37.07%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.68×
• Total profit: $23,438
• Equity at exit: $18,325

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.21×
• Total profit: $76,173
• Equity at exit: $10,626

Cash invested: $34,412 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77372

• Home prices YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 550
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,835 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$645
• Tax from tax record: −$73 /mo · $873/yr
• Insurance: −$51
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$385
• Net cashflow: $681

Break-even live

Break-even rent $973

Max offer price $122,900

Occupancy floor 58%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $751	-5% $716	+0% $681	+5% $646	+10% $611
Rent	-10% $536	-5% $609	+0% $681	+5% $754	+10% $826
Rate	-1.0pp $743	-0.5pp $712	base $681	+0.5pp $649	+1.0pp $617

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,725
• Closing costs: $3,687
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $122,900 Active 50 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $122,900 Active 47 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $122,900 Active 46 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $122,900 Active 45 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on market $122,900 Active 44 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $123,950 Active 42 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $123,950 Active 41 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $123,990 Active 38 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $123,990 Active 37 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $123,990 Active 36 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $124,500 Active 33 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $124,500 Active 32 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $124,500 Active 31 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $124,500 Active 30 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $124,500 Active 29 DOM
16. 2026-05-18
    price $129,000 902-char remark
17. 2026-05-16
    price $142,000 902-char remark
18. 2026-05-12
    price $147,700 902-char remark
19. 2026-05-08
    price $147,900 902-char remark
20. 2026-05-02
    listed $149,900 Active 902-char remark
21. 2016-06-24
    soldstatus
22. 2015-12-01
    soldstatus
23. 2003-05-27
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $873 · $73/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,249 · $187/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,376/yr (+$115/mo · 157.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,018
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,884
• − Property taxes: −$873
• − Insurance: −$614
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,761
• − Management: −$1,761
• − Depreciation: −$3,575
• Taxable income: $6,548
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,571
• After-tax cash flow: $6,601/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Splendora ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841070
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $54,166
• Composite: 24.92/100
• National rank: #7572
• State rank: #648 of 826 in TX

Livability — Splendora

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #911
• US rank: #16335

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 14,367
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,367
• Household income: $79,085
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 135.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 9% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 28%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -6.47%
• Current HPI: 306.9962
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-18.0% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Price Changed $122,900 HARMLS
• 2026-06-12 Price Changed $123,950 HARMLS
• 2026-06-04 Price Changed $123,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-30 Price Changed $124,500 HARMLS
• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $124,900 HARMLS
• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $129,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-16 Price Changed $142,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $147,700 HARMLS
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $147,900 HARMLS
• 2026-05-02 Listed $149,900 HARMLS
• 2016-06-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-12-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-05-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $873 · -6.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.