403 Ash Grove Rd · Cambridge, NY 12816

$149,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,396 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 165 Days on market

Built 1890 1.20 ac lot $107/sqft · 56% below area ↓ 21% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

A rare opportunity just 1.2 miles from the Village of Cambridge! This 4-bedroom, 1-bath fixer-upper sits on 1.2 acres that stretch across both sides of the road, offering privacy, flexibility, and beautiful frontage on the White Creek. Whether you're looking for a renovation project or a spot to create your own country getaway, this property provides a strong foundation and a picturesque setting. Enjoy the convenience of being close to town while still feeling tucked away in nature. The location is ideal—only 45 minutes to Saratoga Springs, 35 minutes to Manchester, VT, and 1 hour to Albany. If you're searching for a property with character, land, water, and endless potential, this one is worth a look

Key facts

• Close to town
• 1.2 acres
• Endless potential

Tags

• 1.2 ACRES
• CLOSE TO TOWN
• TUCKED AWAY IN NATURE
• ENDLESS POTENTIAL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $75 ($895/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 2.7% in Cambridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#463 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, housing A, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Cambridge Central School District (rural): math 47% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #322 of 590 in NY (top 55%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP; 106 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Washington County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 165 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 165 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.72%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $344,574
• List price: $149,900
• Delta: -56.50%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 17 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.06×
• Total profit: $86,530
• Equity at exit: $135,042

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.99×
• Total profit: $251,366
• Equity at exit: $291,223

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12816

• Home prices YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 22
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,648 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$323 /mo · $3,881/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $75

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,554

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $159	-5% $117	+0% $75	+5% $32	+10% $-10
Rent	-10% $-56	-5% $9	+0% $75	+5% $140	+10% $205
Rate	-1.0pp $150	-0.5pp $113	base $75	+0.5pp $36	+1.0pp $-4

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-10
   status Pending 722-char remark

   Show marketing remark (722 chars)

   A rare opportunity just 1.2 miles from the Village of Cambridge! This 4-bedroom, 1-bath fixer-upper sits on 1.2 acres that stretch across both sides of the road, offering privacy, flexibility, and beautiful frontage on the White Creek. Whether you're looking for a renovation project or a spot to create your own country getaway, this property provides a strong foundation and a picturesque setting. Enjoy the convenience of being close to town while still feeling tucked away in nature. The location is ideal—only 45 minutes to Saratoga Springs, 35 minutes to Manchester, VT, and 1 hour to Albany. If you're searching for a property with character, land, water, and endless potential, this one is worth a look

2. 2026-04-23
   price $149,900 722-char remark

   Show marketing remark (722 chars)

   A rare opportunity just 1.2 miles from the Village of Cambridge! This 4-bedroom, 1-bath fixer-upper sits on 1.2 acres that stretch across both sides of the road, offering privacy, flexibility, and beautiful frontage on the White Creek. Whether you're looking for a renovation project or a spot to create your own country getaway, this property provides a strong foundation and a picturesque setting. Enjoy the convenience of being close to town while still feeling tucked away in nature. The location is ideal—only 45 minutes to Saratoga Springs, 35 minutes to Manchester, VT, and 1 hour to Albany. If you're searching for a property with character, land, water, and endless potential, this one is worth a look

3. 2026-03-11
   price $179,900 722-char remark

   Show marketing remark (722 chars)

   A rare opportunity just 1.2 miles from the Village of Cambridge! This 4-bedroom, 1-bath fixer-upper sits on 1.2 acres that stretch across both sides of the road, offering privacy, flexibility, and beautiful frontage on the White Creek. Whether you're looking for a renovation project or a spot to create your own country getaway, this property provides a strong foundation and a picturesque setting. Enjoy the convenience of being close to town while still feeling tucked away in nature. The location is ideal—only 45 minutes to Saratoga Springs, 35 minutes to Manchester, VT, and 1 hour to Albany. If you're searching for a property with character, land, water, and endless potential, this one is worth a look

4. 2025-11-26
   listed $189,900 Active 722-char remark

   Show marketing remark (722 chars)

   A rare opportunity just 1.2 miles from the Village of Cambridge! This 4-bedroom, 1-bath fixer-upper sits on 1.2 acres that stretch across both sides of the road, offering privacy, flexibility, and beautiful frontage on the White Creek. Whether you're looking for a renovation project or a spot to create your own country getaway, this property provides a strong foundation and a picturesque setting. Enjoy the convenience of being close to town while still feeling tucked away in nature. The location is ideal—only 45 minutes to Saratoga Springs, 35 minutes to Manchester, VT, and 1 hour to Albany. If you're searching for a property with character, land, water, and endless potential, this one is worth a look

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,881 · $323/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,881 · $323/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,778
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$3,881
• − Insurance: −$1,416
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,582
• − Management: −$1,582
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable loss: −$1,441
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$346
• After-tax cash flow: $1,240/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cambridge Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3606210
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $51,182
• Composite: 46.16/100
• National rank: #2498
• State rank: #322 of 590 in NY

Livability — Cambridge

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #463
• US rank: #8067

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A- Employment C Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,692

Population outlook (Washington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 59,576 people
• By 2030: 57,618 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 52,751 · -11.5%
• By 2050: 47,514 · -20.2%
• By 2075: 35,690 · -40.1%
• By 2100: 24,807 · -58.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Romanian 4% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 3% · China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Washington

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.2) · D 39.4% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.0pp toward R · 2008: 0.8pp · 2024: -21.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.2 2020: R+15.6 2016: R+20.2 2012: D+1.6 2008: D+0.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 15.95%
• Current HPI: 324.8513
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-21.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-10 Pending — Global MLS
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $149,900 Global MLS
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $179,900 Global MLS
• 2025-11-26 Listed $189,900 Global MLS

Property tax history

+7.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,881 · +18.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.