2302 Abernathy St · Houston, TX 77026

$175,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,528 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 2007 2,404 sqft lot $115/sqft · 49% below area Est $346k · 49% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This is a charming 2-story home featuring 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, a 1-car attached garage, wood-vinyl plank flooring throughout, washer/dryer closet, granite countertops, and a covered back patio! Great for entertaining, the 1st floor includes the living, dining, half bath, and kitchen while upstairs holds the bedrooms and full baths. Easy access to major freeways for downtown commuting, shopping, dining, entertainment, and more. NO HOA or MUD TAX!

Key facts

• Covered back patio
• Granite countertops
• 2,404 sq ft lot

Tags

• WOOD-VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• COVERED BACK PATIO
• EASY ACCESS TO MAJOR FREEWAYS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 1 parking space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2007; Slab foundation
• Construction: Composition roof; Construction materials: Unknown
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms — two secondary bedrooms (both on the second floor) and a primary bedroom (second floor)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms and one half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Washer hookup and electric dryer hookup
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $132 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $172k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Fleming Middle (math 10% / reading 15%, grade F, #1,616 of 1,662 statewide, top 97%, 384 students, 97% FRL); Wheatley H S (math 17% / reading 19%, grade F, #1,445 of 1,632 statewide, top 89%, 643 students, 95% FRL) — zoned schools average 96% FRL vs 71% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 15% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 448 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 64% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (3.9% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.9% appreciation + 3.1% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 17 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $172,375 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.23%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $345,534
• List price: $175,000
• Delta: -45.02%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4404 Bond St	0.44mi	3/2.5	1,529 (+0%)	3mo	$295,000	$193	75
3107 Amboy St	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,503 (-2%)	6mo	$280,000	$186	70
4809 Nichols St	0.43mi	3/2.5	1,581 (+4%)	9mo	$285,000	$180	64
2302 Wipprecht St	0.41mi	3/2.5	1,636 (+7%)	6mo	$299,000	$183	62
2004 Worms St	0.26mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-12%)	1mo	$259,000	$193	62
2207 Dan St	0.25mi	3/2.5	1,736 (+14%)	5mo	$339,000	$195	59
1811 Pannell St Unit C	0.42mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,381 (-10%)	7mo	$275,000	$199	54
4305 Engleford St	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,406 (-8%)	2mo	$159,900	$114	53
2413 Brewster St	0.57mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,431 (-6%)	10mo	$100,000	$70	50
4603 New Orleans St	0.50mi	3/2.5	1,686 (+10%)	10mo	$199,900	$119	49
3202 Quitman St	0.54mi	3/3.5	1,700 (+11%)	3mo	$355,000	$209	48
5001 Farmer St	0.71mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,360 (-11%)	2mo	$299,000	$220	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.89% appreciation · 3.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.78×
• Total profit: $38,187
• Equity at exit: $87,633

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.34×
• Total profit: $114,584
• Equity at exit: $142,464

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77026

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 448
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,917 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$392 /mo · $4,706/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$403
• Net cashflow: $132

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,750

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $231	-5% $182	+0% $132	+5% $82	+10% $33
Rent	-10% $-19	-5% $56	+0% $132	+5% $208	+10% $283
Rate	-1.0pp $220	-0.5pp $177	base $132	+0.5pp $87	+1.0pp $41

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4509 Courtney St Houston, TX	4.0	1.0	1456	$1,150	$0.79	23d	1	0.35mi
4712 Rawley St Unit a Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1501	$2,070	$1.38	21d	1	0.45mi
4712 Rawley St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1501	$2,045	$1.36	21d	1	0.45mi
4300 Lyons Ave Unit 304 Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1393	$1,460	$1.05	44d	1	0.50mi
3730 Lyons Ave Unit 216 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1107	$1,300	$1.17	44d	1	0.56mi
5217 Noble St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1897	$2,750	$1.45	44d	1	0.64mi
1513 Cage St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1467	$1,550	$1.06	44d	1	0.71mi
3300 Lyons Ave Unit 304 Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1393	$1,460	$1.05	44d	1	0.75mi
1222 Upton St Houston, TX	3.0	4.0	2055	$2,600	$1.27	44d	1	0.75mi
3503 Wyrick St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1746	$2,850	$1.63	44d	1	0.82mi
5605 Mulvey St Unit 1019610P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1410	$4,931	$3.50	0d	1	0.83mi
2105 Sam Wilson St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1416	$6,750	$4.77	44d	1	0.84mi
1307 Bayou St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1814	$2,400	$1.32	8d	1	0.92mi
1303 Bayou St Unit C Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1869	$3,200	$1.71	44d	1	0.93mi
4109 Hare St Unit 1019559P Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	1905	$6,852	$3.60	8d	1	0.93mi
4109 Hare St Unit A Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	1913	$6,950	$3.63	44d	1	0.93mi
3410 Baer St Houston, TX	3.0	4.0	2040	$3,500	$1.72	44d	1	1.13mi
3419 Gillespie St Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	2168	$2,300	$1.06	44d	1	1.15mi
1714 Mary St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,400	$2.18	44d	1	1.18mi
611 Sydnor St Houston, TX	3.0	4.0	2157	$2,400	$1.11	44d	1	1.24mi
2905 Baer St Unit 1047953P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1991	$3,094	$1.55	6d	1	1.27mi
308 Grove St Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1701	$2,350	$1.38	8d	1	1.29mi
3910 Woolworth St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,750	$1.52	44d	1	1.35mi
1023 Hahlo St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1434	$1,775	$1.24	6d	1	1.43mi
4711 Sayers St Unit A Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,650	$1.38	44d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $175,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $175,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $175,000 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $175,000 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on marketlisting id $175,000 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $189,990 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,990 Active 24 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,990 Active 23 DOM
13. 2026-05-08
    listed $189,990 Active 451-char remark
14. 2026-05-08
    historical
15. 2026-04-27
    price $189,990
16. 2026-03-30
    price $199,000
17. 2026-03-09
    listed $209,990 Active
18. 2026-03-09
    historical
19. 2025-10-22
    listed $209,990 Active
20. 2025-10-22
    historical
21. 2025-09-26
    price $209,990
22. 2025-09-02
    price $214,990
23. 2025-08-08
    listed $225,000 Active
24. 2025-02-24
    historical $1,399
25. 2025-02-21
    historical $1,399
26. 2025-02-14
    price $1,399
27. 2025-01-11
    price $1,455
28. 2025-01-10
    price $1,455
29. 2025-01-09
    listed $1,550
30. 2024-12-19
    listed $1,550
31. 2024-11-12
    historical $1,550
32. 2024-11-06
    listed $1,550
33. 2023-12-01
    historical $1,495
34. 2023-10-29
    price $1,495
35. 2023-10-18
    price $1,525
36. 2023-10-13
    price $1,575
37. 2023-10-07
    price $1,625
38. 2023-09-27
    listed $1,650
39. 2022-08-23
    price $1,545
40. 2020-12-28
    soldstatus
41. 2020-12-22
    soldstatus Sold
42. 2020-11-30
    status Pending
43. 2020-11-23
    status Option Pending
44. 2020-11-14
    status Active
45. 2020-11-12
    status Option Pending
46. 2020-11-09
    historical
47. 2020-11-09
    listed $129,900 Active
48. 2020-09-26
    price $137,900
49. 2020-08-12
    listed $139,900 Active
50. 2020-01-29
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,706 · $392/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,706 · $392/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,010
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$4,706
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,841
• − Management: −$1,841
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$1,147
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$275
• After-tax cash flow: $1,859/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,981
• Household income: $39,211
• Rent vs Own: 56.3% rent · 43.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1531.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 49% Hispanic / Latino 44% Two or more races 18% White 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 39%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.89%
• Current HPI: 267.5995
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.08%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+121.5% since first listed

62 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-06-04 Listed $175,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-08 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-08 Listed $189,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $189,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $199,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-09 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-09 Listed $209,990 HARMLS
• 2025-10-22 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-22 Listed $209,990 HARMLS
• 2025-09-26 Price Changed $209,990 HARMLS
• 2025-09-02 Price Changed $214,990 HARMLS
• 2025-08-08 Listed $225,000 HARMLS
• 2025-02-24 Rental Removed $1,399 RENTALBEAST
• 2025-02-21 Rental Removed $1,399 RENT.
• 2025-02-14 Price Changed $1,399 RENTALBEAST
• 2025-01-11 Price Changed $1,455 RENTALBEAST
• 2025-01-10 Price Changed $1,455 RENT.
• 2025-01-09 Listed for Rent $1,550 RENTALBEAST
• 2024-12-19 Listed for Rent $1,550 RENT.
• 2024-11-12 Rental Removed $1,550 RENT.
• 2024-11-06 Listed for Rent $1,550 RENT.
• 2023-12-01 Rental Removed $1,495 RENT.
• 2023-10-29 Price Changed $1,495 RENT.
• 2023-10-18 Price Changed $1,525 RENT.
• 2023-10-13 Price Changed $1,575 RENT.
• 2023-10-07 Price Changed $1,625 RENT.
• 2023-09-27 Listed for Rent $1,650 RENT.
• 2022-08-23 Price Changed $1,545 RENT.
• 2020-12-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-12-22 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2020-11-30 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-11-23 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-11-14 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2020-11-12 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-11-09 Listed $129,900 HARMLS
• 2020-11-09 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2020-09-26 Price Changed $137,900 HARMLS
• 2020-08-12 Listed $139,900 HARMLS
• 2020-01-29 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2019-04-25 Listed $139,900 HARMLS
• 2018-10-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-10-23 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2018-10-23 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-10-21 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-09-12 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-09-04 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-08-25 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-07-05 Listed $106,500 HARMLS
• 2017-05-22 Pending — HARMLS
• 2017-05-12 Pending — HARMLS
• 2017-05-12 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2017-04-24 Price Changed $84,500 HARMLS
• 2016-12-20 Listed $85,000 HARMLS
• 2016-01-06 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2014-12-08 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2014-11-21 Pending — HARMLS
• 2014-10-12 Price Changed $77,000 HARMLS
• 2014-10-12 Price Changed $75,000 HARMLS
• 2014-10-12 Price Changed $70,000 HARMLS
• 2014-10-06 Price Changed $75,000 HARMLS
• 2014-09-16 Listed $79,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+8.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,706 · +15.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.