11 Pheasant Ln · Remsenburg-Speonk, NY 11960

$1,700,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,870 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 320 Days on market

Built 1991 0.90 ac lot Est $2448k · 31% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.9/10.0
• Appreciation +8.9/10.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Experience luxury living at its finest in this exquisite home located in the prestigious Remsenburg neighborhood. Boasting four bedrooms and four full bathrooms, this residence offers an abundance of space and comfort for you and your family. As you step inside, you'll be greeted by a sun-drenched sunroom, perfect for enjoying your morning coffee or basking in the afternoon sunlight. The spacious great room provides an inviting atmosphere for relaxation or entertaining guests, while the gourmet kitchen is a chef's delight, featuring three ovens and two dishwashers for effortless meal preparation. Downstairs, you'll find additional amenities including a convenient mudroom, a luxurious full b

Key facts

• Sun-drenched sunroom
• 0.9 acre lot
• Garage

Tags

• SUN-DRENCHED SUNROOM
• SPRAWLING MAHOGANY DECK
• SPARKLING GUNITE SWIMMING POOL
• NATURAL STONE SURROUND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $1.70M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5k ($63k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($20k rent vs $1.70M).
• Recommended offer: $1.50M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 7.2% in Remsenburg-Speonk — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade A — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Remsenburg-Speonk Union Free School District (suburban): math 60% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #389 of 755 in NY (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Remsenburg-Speonk Elementary School (math 52% / reading 62%, grade C+, #842 of 2,108 statewide, top 43%, 122 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools average 36% FRL vs 10% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 40 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $145k of equity ($12k loan paydown + $133k appreciation (7.8% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (7.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $476k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$231k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 320 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.50M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $865k; list at $1.70M implies a 97% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,496,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 320 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.23%
• DSCR: 1.59
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $2,448,110
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3 Pheasant Ln	0.12mi	4/2.5	2,525 (-12%)	10mo	$2,155,000	$853	64
11 Basket Neck Ln	0.33mi	4/4.0	2,700 (-6%)	20mo	$1,750,000	$648	54
92 S Country Rd	0.55mi	4/4.0	3,176 (+11%)	5mo	$2,931,000	$923	48
15 E Shore Dr	0.60mi	4/2.5	2,574 (-10%)	7mo	$1,075,000	$418	47
23 Laila Ln	0.72mi	4/5.0	2,982 (+4%)	12mo	$2,850,000	$956	42
38 Halsey Rd	0.68mi	5/3.0 (+1)	3,150 (+10%)	12mo	$1,388,000	$441	37
3 Cedar Ln	0.60mi	3/3.5 (-1)	3,100 (+8%)	18mo	$2,800,000	$903	37
4 Strathmore Ct	0.68mi	4/4.5	2,724 (-5%)	21mo	$1,705,000	$626	36
7 Ring Neck Rd	0.67mi	5/4.5 (+1)	3,100 (+8%)	19mo	$2,750,000	$887	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.81% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.13×
• Total profit: $1,013,168
• Equity at exit: $1,269,464

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.65×
• Total profit: $2,689,563
• Equity at exit: $2,499,109

Cash invested: $476,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11960

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 40
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $19,685 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$8,915
• Tax from tax record: −$680 /mo · $8,165/yr
• Insurance: −$708
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,134
• Net cashflow: $5,247

Break-even live

Break-even rent $13,043

Max offer price $1,700,000

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $6,210	-5% $5,728	+0% $5,247	+5% $4,766	+10% $4,285
Rent	-10% $3,692	-5% $4,470	+0% $5,247	+5% $6,025	+10% $6,802
Rate	-1.0pp $6,103	-0.5pp $5,680	base $5,247	+0.5pp $4,807	+1.0pp $4,359

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $425,000
• Closing costs: $51,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
35 Halsey Rd Remsenburg, NY	3.0	2.0	2345	$10,000	$4.26	1d	1	0.63mi
3 Pine Grove Ct Westhampton, NY	4.0	3.5	3500	$35,000	$10.00	22d	1	1.03mi
134A Montauk Hwy Westhampton, NY	4.0	3.5	2478	$15,000	$6.05	1d	1	1.40mi
13 Buttercup Ln Westhampton, NY	3.0	4.5	3278	$25,000	$7.63	5d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2025-03-31
   status Pending
2. 2025-03-20
   price $1,700,000
3. 2025-01-20
   price $2,795,000
4. 2024-09-10
   price $2,995,000
5. 2024-05-15
   listed $3,275,000 Active
6. 2005-02-01
   soldstatus $865,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $8,165 · $680/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $18,447 · $1,537/mo
• Expected delta: +$10,283/yr (+$857/mo · 125.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $236,218
• − Mortgage interest: −$95,226
• − Property taxes: −$8,165
• − Insurance: −$8,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$18,897
• − Management: −$18,897
• − Depreciation: −$49,455
• Taxable income: $37,077
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$8,899
• After-tax cash flow: $54,069/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Remsenburg-Speonk Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3624420
• Math proficiency: 60% ▲ 10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $79,972
• Composite: 47.7/100
• National rank: #4915
• State rank: #389 of 755 in NY

Livability — Remsenburg-Speonk

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Remsenburg-Speonk, NY
• City population: 1,346
• Population (ZIP): 1,037

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (100%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 100%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 9% Romanian 8% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.81%
• Current HPI: 386.454
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+96.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2025-03-31 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-20 Price Changed $1,700,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-20 Price Changed $2,795,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-10 Price Changed $2,995,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-15 Listed $3,275,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $865,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2024): $8,165 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.