2806 Lake Ave · Baltimore, MD 21213

$151,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,164 sqft · Townhouse public records · 131 Days on market

Built 1974 1,307 sqft lot $130/sqft · 9% below area Est $171k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.8/30.0
• ARV discount +12.7/15.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor special in Baltimore City! 2806 Lake Ave, Baltimore, MD 21213 is a tenant-occupied property with a paying tenant and rent roll proof available upon request. The tenant is currently on a month-to-month lease, offering flexibility for an investor to continue cash flow, adjust rental terms, or reposition the property. This property is ideal for buy-and-hold investors seeking immediate rental income with minimal vacancy risk. Conveniently located near major commuter routes, public transportation, shopping, and local amenities. Sold As-Is. Showings may be limited and subject to tenant rights. Please do not disturb tenant. Listing agent to be present for all appointments.

Key facts

• Month to month lease
• Paying tenant
• Built 1974

Tags

• TENANT OCCUPIED PROPERTY
• PAYING TENANT
• MONTH TO MONTH LEASE
• IMMEDIATE RENTAL INCOME
• MAJOR COMMUTER ROUTES
• PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $151k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $291 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $151k).
• Recommended offer: $133k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 6.0% in Baltimore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in MD, #3,396 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Baltimore City Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #24 of 24 in MD (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 319 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,273 units permitted in Baltimore city in 2024 (1,104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $186 of equity ($1k loan paydown + $-858 appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
• Baltimore County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-0.6% appreciation + 5.2% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 131 days — a 12% lower offer ($133k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $122k; 24% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $132,880 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 131 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.26%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $170,658
• List price: $151,000
• Delta: -11.52%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3436 Cliftmont Ave	0.44mi	3/1.5	1,200 (+3%)	2mo	$120,000	$100	73
2821 Erdman Ave	0.15mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,260 (+8%)	0mo	$75,000	$60	72
3238 Ravenwood Ave	0.62mi	3/1.5	1,158 (-0%)	0mo	$70,000	$60	70
3532 Cliftmont Ave	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,200 (+3%)	2mo	$168,000	$140	65
3131 Chesterfield Ave	0.32mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,068 (-8%)	1mo	$75,000	$70	64
3555 Elmora Ave	0.61mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,178 (+1%)	1mo	$254,000	$216	62
3236 Lyndale Ave	0.54mi	3/1.0	1,080 (-7%)	2mo	$161,855	$150	59
3838 Lyndale Ave	0.68mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,190 (+2%)	2mo	$113,500	$95	56
3805 Elmora Ave	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,096 (-6%)	1mo	$11,700	$11	54
4323 Sheldon Ave	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,280 (+10%)	2mo	$245,000	$191	50
4235 Seidel Ave	0.72mi	3/1.5	1,280 (+10%)	2mo	$91,000	$71	49
3802 Lyndale Ave	0.65mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,050 (-10%)	1mo	$160,000	$152	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.57% appreciation · 5.25% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.34×
• Total profit: $14,354
• Equity at exit: $39,606

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.65×
• Total profit: $69,880
• Equity at exit: $44,344

Cash invested: $42,280 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Baltimore: 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+58

Just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21213

• Home prices YoY: -0.1%
• Rents YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 319
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,787 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$792
• Tax from tax record: −$266 /mo · $3,194/yr
• Insurance: −$63
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$375
• Net cashflow: $291

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,419

Max offer price $151,000

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,750
• Closing costs: $4,530
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3436 Cardenas Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1146	$1,395	$1.22	43d	1	0.02mi
2828 Lake Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1164	$1,850	$1.59	4d	1	0.04mi
3515 Parklawn Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1240	$1,700	$1.37	2d	1	0.10mi
2817 Pelham Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1464	$1,950	$1.33	23d	1	0.14mi
2837 Pelham Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1164	$1,675	$1.44	43d	1	0.15mi
2848 Pelham Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1164	$1,700	$1.46	43d	1	0.18mi
3028 Kenyon Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1075	$1,395	$1.30	43d	1	0.33mi
3305 Dudley Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1413	$1,950	$1.38	43d	1	0.48mi
3610 Elmley Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.5	1200	$1,550	$1.29	20d	1	0.53mi
3213 Elmley Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1188	$1,395	$1.17	43d	1	0.54mi
3335 Lyndale Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1344	$1,600	$1.19	23d	1	0.54mi
3222 Lyndale Ave Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1500	$2,200	$1.47	12d	1	0.55mi
3317 Lyndale Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	900	$1,300	$1.44	43d	1	0.55mi
3315 Lyndale Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.5	896	$1,650	$1.84	17d	1	0.55mi
3218 Lyndale Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1020	$1,500	$1.47	23d	1	0.55mi
3326 Elmora Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,450	$1.21	23d	1	0.56mi
3512 Elmora Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1472	$1,900	$1.29	20d	1	0.57mi
3221 Lyndale Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1020	$1,700	$1.67	23d	1	0.57mi
3339 Elmora Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	896	$1,600	$1.79	43d	1	0.58mi
3646 Lyndale Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.5	840	$1,475	$1.76	43d	1	0.60mi
3322 Ravenwood Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	932	$1,800	$1.93	23d	1	0.60mi
4024 Eierman Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1136	$1,825	$1.61	43d	1	0.61mi
2113 Belair Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1344	$1,795	$1.34	43d	1	0.61mi
3343 Ravenwood Ave Unit 3343 Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	948	$1,855	$1.96	17d	1	0.62mi
3544 Chesterfield Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,635	$1.36	43d	1	0.62mi
4320 Sheldon Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1280	$1,800	$1.41	23d	1	0.66mi
4400 Asbury Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1270	$1,995	$1.57	4d	1	0.68mi
3902 Erdman Ave Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,275	$1.27	23d	1	0.70mi
3566 Dudley Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	896	$1,800	$2.01	23d	1	0.70mi
3551 Shannon Dr Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1485	$2,358	$1.59	23d	1	0.71mi
3914 Erdman Ave #1 Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,319	$1.10	17d	1	0.72mi
3573 Shannon Dr Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1493	$2,300	$1.54	17d	1	0.73mi
1832 E 28th St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1066	$1,495	$1.40	23d	1	0.84mi
1802 E 28th St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,600	$1.23	23d	1	0.88mi
4409 Moravia Rd Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	861	$1,385	$1.61	43d	3	0.91mi
1702 E 32nd St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1344	$2,300	$1.71	43d	1	0.98mi
4022 Ardley Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	896	$1,750	$1.95	43d	1	0.99mi
4116 Raymonn Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1244	$1,950	$1.57	43d	1	1.01mi
2311 E Lafayette Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,400	$1.40	43d	1	1.08mi
1519 E 28th St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,350	$1.23	43d	1	1.08mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $151,000 Active 131 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $151,000 Active 130 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $151,000 Active 129 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $151,000 Active 128 DOM
5. 2026-03-02
   price $161,000 683-char remark

   Show marketing remark (683 chars)

   Investor special in Baltimore City! 2806 Lake Ave, Baltimore, MD 21213 is a tenant-occupied property with a paying tenant and rent roll proof available upon request. The tenant is currently on a month-to-month lease, offering flexibility for an investor to continue cash flow, adjust rental terms, or reposition the property. This property is ideal for buy-and-hold investors seeking immediate rental income with minimal vacancy risk. Conveniently located near major commuter routes, public transportation, shopping, and local amenities. Sold As-Is. Showings may be limited and subject to tenant rights. Please do not disturb tenant. Listing agent to be present for all appointments.

6. 2026-01-23
   listed $171,000 Active 683-char remark

   Show marketing remark (683 chars)

   Investor special in Baltimore City! 2806 Lake Ave, Baltimore, MD 21213 is a tenant-occupied property with a paying tenant and rent roll proof available upon request. The tenant is currently on a month-to-month lease, offering flexibility for an investor to continue cash flow, adjust rental terms, or reposition the property. This property is ideal for buy-and-hold investors seeking immediate rental income with minimal vacancy risk. Conveniently located near major commuter routes, public transportation, shopping, and local amenities. Sold As-Is. Showings may be limited and subject to tenant rights. Please do not disturb tenant. Listing agent to be present for all appointments.

7. 2023-08-29
   historical
8. 2023-08-24
   listed $170,000 Active
9. 2016-04-22
   historical
10. 2016-04-22
    soldstatus $122,000 Sold
11. 2016-04-22
    soldstatus $122,000
12. 2016-03-18
    status Contract
13. 2016-02-05
    listed $125,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,194 · $266/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,194 · $266/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,449
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,458
• − Property taxes: −$3,194
• − Insurance: −$755
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,716
• − Management: −$1,716
• − Depreciation: −$4,393
• Taxable income: $1,218
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$292
• After-tax cash flow: $3,202/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore City Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400090
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,108
• Composite: 10.08/100
• National rank: #9805
• State rank: #24 of 24 in MD

Livability — Baltimore

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3396

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baltimore, MD
• County: Baltimore City · 558,601 people
• City population: 588,727
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 28,058
• Household income: $51,344
• Rent vs Own: 48.0% rent · 52.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1868.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 624,249 people
• By 2030: 621,541 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 609,756 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 597,249 · -4.3%
• By 2075: 552,236 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 513,934 · -17.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 86% White 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+73.0) · D 85.2% · R 12.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 75.5pp · 2024: 73.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+73.0 2020: D+76.6 2016: D+74.6 2012: D+76.4 2008: D+75.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.57%
• Current HPI: 427.4453
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.25%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+28.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $161,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-23 Listed $171,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-08-29 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-08-24 Listed $170,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2016-04-22 Delisted — MRIS
• 2016-04-22 Sold (MLS) $122,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2016-04-22 Sold (MLS) $122,000 MRIS
• 2016-03-18 Pending — MRIS
• 2016-02-05 Listed $125,000 MRIS

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,194 · +9.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.