3744 Monacan Trail Rd · North Garden, VA 22959

$375,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,299 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1930 1.00 ac lot Est $294k · 28% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

An incredible opportunity awaits just 10 minutes from downtown Charlottesville! This offering includes two adjoining parcels — 3758 Monacan Trail Rd (0.71 acres) and 3744 Monacan Trail Rd (1 acre) — totaling 1.71 acres with a combined market value of $484,000, now available together for only $150,000! Both properties feature homes in need of extensive renovation, making this an ideal project for investors, flippers, or owner-occupants looking to build instant equity. One home is currently livable, allowing you to reside on-site while you renovate the second, or lease one while updating the other — endless possibilities for income-producing potential. Perfectly situated in the heart of North Garden, you're less than a mile from the renowned Pippin Hill Farm & Vineyards, steps from Dr. Ho’s Humble Pie, and minutes from award-winning wineries, breweries, and all the charm and amenities Charlottesville has to offer. Opportunities like this are rare — whether you're looking to invest, renovate, or create your own homestead with income potential, this is truly a "steal of a deal". Bring your vision and don't miss out! Sold strictly as-is. Call/text

Key facts

• 1 acre lot
• Built 1930
• Listed 12 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: On-site septic; Shared well water; Electric power and systems
• Home design: Detached property; Above-grade living space of 1,299 finished square feet
• Construction: Brick, block, and vinyl siding construction; Block foundation; Architectural shingle roof; Double-hung windows; No basement
• Exterior features: Front yard; Backs to trees; Road frontage; Rural setting; Accessible switches/outlets; Main-level ramp

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven/range
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Luxury vinyl plank flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Ductless/mini-split cooling (electric); Electric hot water
• Interior features: Six-panel insulated doors; Drywall walls and ceilings

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $375k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-488 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $289k (23.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $230k (38.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $230k (38.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Albemarle County Public School District (rural): math 66% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #14 of 131 in VA (top 11%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 21 active listings in the ZIP; 810 units permitted in Albemarle County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $40k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $38k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Albemarle County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$64k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $142k; list at $375k implies a 163% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $230,379 (38.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.95%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 13.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $293,574
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4601 Loving Rd	0.52mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,218 (-6%)	5mo	$275,000	$226	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.65×
• Total profit: $172,984
• Equity at exit: $337,830

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.08×
• Total profit: $533,598
• Equity at exit: $728,543

Cash invested: $105,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22959

• Home prices YoY: 10.1%
• Active inventory: 21
• Price-to-rent: 13.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,304 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,967
• Tax from tax record: −$130 /mo · $1,562/yr
• Insurance: −$156
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$484
• Net cashflow: $-488

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,922

Max offer price $288,706

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,750
• Closing costs: $11,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $375,000 Coming Soon 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-14
   days on market $375,000 Coming Soon 10 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $375,000 Coming Soon 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-10
   days on market $375,000 Coming Soon 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $375,000 Coming Soon 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $375,000 Coming Soon 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   remarks 248-char remark
8. 2026-06-07
   listed $375,000 Coming Soon 4 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,562 · $130/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,075 · $256/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,513/yr (+$126/mo · 96.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,645
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,006
• − Property taxes: −$1,562
• − Insurance: −$2,542
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,212
• − Management: −$2,212
• − Depreciation: −$10,909
• Taxable loss: −$12,796
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,071
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,791/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Albemarle County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100090
• Math proficiency: 66% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 77% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $67,851
• Composite: 62.28/100
• National rank: #698
• State rank: #14 of 131 in VA

Livability — North Garden

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,802

Population outlook (Albemarle County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 119,403 people
• By 2030: 125,829 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 137,705 · +15.3%
• By 2050: 148,058 · +24.0%
• By 2075: 172,223 · +44.2%
• By 2100: 185,628 · +55.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Black 12% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 2% Native American 2%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 2% Romanian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Albemarle

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+34.1) · D 66.3% · R 32.2% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +16.1pp toward D · 2008: 18.0pp · 2024: 34.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+34.1 2020: D+33.5 2016: D+25.1 2012: D+12.0 2008: D+18.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 25.98%
• Current HPI: 283.4912
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+837.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Coming Soon $375,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-06-25 Sold (Public Records) $142,500 Public Records
• 2025-06-25 Sold (MLS) $142,500 CAAR
• 2025-06-18 Pending — CAAR
• 2025-06-16 Listed $150,000 CAAR
• 2025-06-13 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,562 · +40.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.