143 Rock Hill Rd · Fairfield Bay, AR 72088

$250,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,968 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 119 Days on market

Built 2006 0.25 ac lot $127/sqft · at area comps Est $267k · 7% under $112/mo HOA · 6% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.4/15.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• Appreciation +4.8/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to your dream home located on the 15th tee box of Indian Hill Golf Course! This stunning 3-bedroom 2-bathroom residence boasts an expansive layout designed for your comfort and leisure. The master suite is a true retreat featuring a jetted soaker tub in the en-suite bathroom. Step outside and enjoy your private hot tub on the deck and watch the golfers go by! This home not only offers ample space with a large garage, but it is also wheelchair accessible ensuring comfort for everyone. Enjoy the tranquility of golf-course living while being just minutes away from the town center. In addition to all this home has to offer don't miss out on the additional heated and cooled mancave or built in "sheshed" below includes a bunk room endless ideas and possibilities!

Key facts

• Bunk room
• Golf-course living
• 15th tee box

Tags

• 15TH TEE BOX
• PRIVATE HOT TUB
• GOLF-COURSE LIVING
• HEATED AND COOLED MANCAVE
• BUNK ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-265 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $203k (18.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $177k (29.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $177k (29.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#220 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Shirley School District (rural): math 44% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #132 of 245 in AR (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 259 active listings in the ZIP; 16 units permitted in Van Buren County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $537 of equity ($2k loan paydown + $-1k appreciation (-0.5% local appreciation)).
• Van Buren County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 119 days — a 9% lower offer ($228k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $150k; list at $250k implies a 67% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $176,612 (29.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 119 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.54%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $267,391
• List price: $250,000
• Delta: -6.50%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
242 Snead Dr	0.05mi	3/2.5	2,120 (+8%)	8mo	$305,000	$144	76
203 Snead Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,968 (0%)	20mo	$182,500	$93	74
121 Rock Hill Rd	0.16mi	3/2.5	1,750 (-11%)	2mo	$299,900	$171	70
206 Snead Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	2,255 (+15%)	10mo	$350,000	$155	60
315 Snead Dr	0.21mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,779 (-10%)	11mo	$265,000	$149	56
135 Castle Ridge Hts	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,876 (-5%)	24mo	$300,000	$160	56
106 Blue Ridge Ct	0.36mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,811 (-8%)	14mo	$260,000	$144	53
193 E Blue Ridge Ter	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,728 (-12%)	11mo	$306,500	$177	43
177 E Blue Ridge Ter	0.70mi	3/2.5	2,227 (+13%)	4mo	$305,000	$137	41
438 Woodlawn Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,704 (-13%)	13mo	$200,000	$117	40
315 Castle Ridge Hts	0.71mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,240 (+14%)	2mo	$274,900	$123	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.48% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-29,757
• Equity at exit: $66,694

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-21,047
• Equity at exit: $75,602

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72088

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 259
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,766 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$133 /mo · $1,598/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$112
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$371
• Net cashflow: $-265

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,102

Max offer price $203,168

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-124	-5% $-194	+0% $-265	+5% $-336	+10% $-407
Rent	-10% $-405	-5% $-335	+0% $-265	+5% $-195	+10% $-126
Rate	-1.0pp $-139	-0.5pp $-202	base $-265	+0.5pp $-330	+1.0pp $-396

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $112 · $1,344/yr

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $250,000 Active 119 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $250,000 Active 118 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $250,000 Active 117 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $250,000 Active 116 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $250,000 Active 115 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $250,000 Active 113 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $250,000 Active 112 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $250,000 Active 109 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $250,000 Active 108 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $250,000 Active 107 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $250,000 Active 106 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $250,000 Active 103 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $250,000 Active 102 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $250,000 Active 101 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $250,000 Active 100 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $250,000 Active 99 DOM
17. 2026-02-21
    listed $250,000 New Listing 785-char remark

    Show marketing remark (785 chars)

    Welcome to your dream home located on the 15th tee box of Indian Hill Golf Course! This stunning 3-bedroom 2-bathroom residence boasts an expansive layout designed for your comfort and leisure. The master suite is a true retreat featuring a jetted soaker tub in the en-suite bathroom. Step outside and enjoy your private hot tub on the deck and watch the golfers go by! This home not only offers ample space with a large garage, but it is also wheelchair accessible ensuring comfort for everyone. Enjoy the tranquility of golf-course living while being just minutes away from the town center. In addition to all this home has to offer don't miss out on the additional heated and cooled mancave or built in "sheshed" below includes a bunk room endless ideas and possibilities!

18. 2020-02-05
    soldstatus $150,000 Sold 539-char remark

    Show marketing remark (539 chars)

    This golf course home is "LIKE NEW", with soft colors throughout interior, greatroom with f/p, cheery kitchen & dining area. 3 BR, 2 Ba, laundry room. Master suite is spacious & bath has jetted tub & separate shower. Lovely lighting fixtures/fans, 6-panel wood doors. A very inviting, comfortable home. In the basement area, you'll find the 35' X 8' finished area with room for office desk, TV viewing, & it even has a small BR. This has double concrete walls, is centrally heated & cooled. Agent Com

19. 2020-02-05
    soldstatus $150,000

    Show marketing remark (539 chars)

    This golf course home is "LIKE NEW", with soft colors throughout interior, greatroom with f/p, cheery kitchen & dining area. 3 BR, 2 Ba, laundry room. Master suite is spacious & bath has jetted tub & separate shower. Lovely lighting fixtures/fans, 6-panel wood doors. A very inviting, comfortable home. In the basement area, you'll find the 35' X 8' finished area with room for office desk, TV viewing, & it even has a small BR. This has double concrete walls, is centrally heated & cooled. Agent Com

20. 2020-01-04
    status Under Contract 539-char remark

    Show marketing remark (539 chars)

    This golf course home is "LIKE NEW", with soft colors throughout interior, greatroom with f/p, cheery kitchen & dining area. 3 BR, 2 Ba, laundry room. Master suite is spacious & bath has jetted tub & separate shower. Lovely lighting fixtures/fans, 6-panel wood doors. A very inviting, comfortable home. In the basement area, you'll find the 35' X 8' finished area with room for office desk, TV viewing, & it even has a small BR. This has double concrete walls, is centrally heated & cooled. Agent Com

21. 2018-03-26
    listed $159,900 New Listing 539-char remark

    Show marketing remark (539 chars)

    This golf course home is "LIKE NEW", with soft colors throughout interior, greatroom with f/p, cheery kitchen & dining area. 3 BR, 2 Ba, laundry room. Master suite is spacious & bath has jetted tub & separate shower. Lovely lighting fixtures/fans, 6-panel wood doors. A very inviting, comfortable home. In the basement area, you'll find the 35' X 8' finished area with room for office desk, TV viewing, & it even has a small BR. This has double concrete walls, is centrally heated & cooled. Agent Com

22. 2017-08-14
    historical
23. 2017-08-03
    price $159,900
24. 2017-04-01
    listed $169,900 New Listing
25. 2016-12-01
    historical
26. 2016-09-15
    price $169,900
27. 2016-03-14
    listed $177,900 New Listing

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,598 · $133/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,600 · $133/mo
• Expected delta: +$2/yr ($0/mo · 0.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 5 d/yr ≥107°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,193
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$1,598
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,695
• − Management: −$1,695
• − HOA: −$1,344
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$7,666
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,840
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,341/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shirley School District
• NCES district ID: 0512420
• Math proficiency: 44% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $36,296
• Composite: 37.98/100
• National rank: #8669
• State rank: #132 of 245 in AR

Livability — Fairfield Bay

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #220
• US rank: #16778

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fairfield Bay, AR
• City population: 2,264
• Population (ZIP): 2,264

Population outlook (Van Buren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,459 people
• By 2030: 14,645 · -5.3%
• By 2040: 12,918 · -16.4%
• By 2050: 11,263 · -27.1%
• By 2075: 7,870 · -49.1%
• By 2100: 4,918 · -68.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Iranian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Van Buren

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.2) · D 18.9% · R 79.0% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.5pp toward R · 2008: -31.7pp · 2024: -60.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.2 2020: R+56.9 2016: R+53.9 2012: R+39.5 2008: R+31.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.48%
• Current HPI: 238.2694
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+40.5% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-21 Listed $250,000 CARMLS
• 2020-02-05 Sold (Public Records) $150,000 Public Records
• 2020-02-05 Sold (MLS) $150,000 CARMLS
• 2020-01-04 Pending — CARMLS
• 2018-03-26 Listed $159,900 CARMLS
• 2017-08-14 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2017-08-03 Price Changed $159,900 CARMLS
• 2017-04-01 Listed $169,900 CARMLS
• 2016-12-01 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2016-09-15 Price Changed $169,900 CARMLS
• 2016-03-14 Listed $177,900 CARMLS

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,598 · +10.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.