10106 Sierra Dr · Houston, TX 77051

$165,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 957 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 36 Days on market

Built 1955 5,501 sqft lot $172/sqft · 39% above area Est $159k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +5.8/15.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Come see this inviting 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home featuring central air and heat, ideally located in south Houston with convenient access to Highway 288, Loop 610, and Beltway 8. This central location allows for an easy commute to Downtown Houston, the Texas Medical Center, NRG Stadium, the Galleria, and Hobby Airport. Surrounded by ongoing development and everyday conveniences, the property offers a combination of comfort, accessibility, and long-term potential. This well-located home presents an excellent opportunity for homeowners and investors alike.

Key facts

• 5,501 sq ft lot
• Built 1955
• Listed 36 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease considered

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1955; Slab foundation
• Construction: Composition roof; Construction materials: Unknown
• Exterior features: Located in a subdivision

Interior

• Bedrooms: Bedroom on fourth level (approx. 10x10); Bedroom on third level (approx. 10x10); Bedroom on second level (approx. 10x10); Bedroom on first level (approx. 10x10)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: Total of 4 rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-71 ($-848/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $153k (7.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $136k (17.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $136k (17.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Attucks Middle (math 15% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,478 of 1,662 statewide, top 90%, 439 students, 98% FRL); Worthing H S (math 22% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 827 students, 96% FRL) — zoned schools average 97% FRL vs 71% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.8%/yr); 312 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 4.8% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 13 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask is 10937% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $135,761 (17.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.84%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $158,934
• List price: $165,000
• Delta: 3.82%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3138 Sunbeam St	0.14mi	3/1.0	1,091 (+14%)	7mo	$109,900	$101	64
10101 Rosehaven Dr	0.08mi	3/1.0	876 (-8%)	22mo	$130,000	$148	64
9502 Chesterfield Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0	978 (+2%)	16mo	$145,000	$148	63
10013 Cathedral Dr	0.05mi	3/1.0	813 (-15%)	20mo	$129,900	$160	56
3201 Airport Blvd	0.36mi	3/2.0	984 (+3%)	22mo	$198,900	$202	56
10506 Chesterfield Dr	0.23mi	3/1.0	858 (-10%)	20mo	$84,882	$99	56
9333 Fairland Dr	0.47mi	3/1.0	1,080 (+13%)	8mo	$170,000	$157	50
9417 Fairland Dr	0.39mi	3/1.0	1,080 (+13%)	13mo	$130,000	$120	49
9522 Fairland Dr	0.27mi	2/1.0 (-1)	834 (-13%)	17mo	$68,900	$83	46
9409 Sierra Dr	0.41mi	3/1.0	840 (-12%)	20mo	$145,000	$173	44
10902 Long Gate Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,041 (+9%)	17mo	$179,900	$173	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 4.77% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.90×
• Total profit: $87,843
• Equity at exit: $148,645

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.79×
• Total profit: $267,634
• Equity at exit: $320,559

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77051

• Home prices YoY: 9.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.8%
• Active inventory: 312
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,358 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$209 /mo · $2,510/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$285
• Net cashflow: $-71

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,447

Max offer price $152,512

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10510 Cathedral Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	887	$1,300	$1.47	43d	1	0.24mi
4112 Grassmere St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	711	$700	$0.98	10d	1	0.56mi
9414 Heno St Unit 13 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	824	$900	$1.09	24d	1	0.59mi
4205 Grassmere St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	824	$900	$1.09	24d	1	0.62mi
2910 Reed Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	967	$1,280	$1.32	1d	5	0.70mi
2889 Reed Rd Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	997	$1,648	$1.65	2d	2	0.90mi
4205 Phlox St Unit 2 BEDROOM 6 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	736	$860	$1.17	17d	1	0.93mi
4207 Phlox St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	736	$962	$1.31	1d	1	0.94mi
2725 Reed Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	911	$975	$1.07	43d	1	0.97mi
4326 Larkspur St Unit 3 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$1,200	$1.50	16d	1	1.08mi
4322 Groton Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	858	$1,395	$1.63	43d	1	1.18mi

Listing history 45 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $165,000 Active 27 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,000 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $165,000 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $170,000 Active 22 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $170,000 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $170,000 Active 18 DOM
12. 2026-05-14
    listed $1,495
13. 2026-05-14
    historical $1,495
14. 2026-05-13
    historical
15. 2026-05-13
    listed $170,000 Active 560-char remark
16. 2026-05-09
    price $168,000
17. 2026-04-04
    listed $1,495
18. 2026-04-03
    historical $1,495
19. 2026-04-03
    listed $170,000 Active
20. 2026-04-03
    historical
21. 2026-03-05
    listed $1,495
22. 2026-03-04
    historical $1,495
23. 2026-03-03
    listed $169,000 Active
24. 2026-03-03
    historical
25. 2026-01-29
    price $1,495
26. 2026-01-14
    listed $1,500
27. 2026-01-13
    historical $1,500
28. 2026-01-06
    listed $170,000 Active
29. 2025-12-27
    price $1,500
30. 2025-12-04
    listed $1,550
31. 2025-12-03
    historical $1,550
32. 2025-11-15
    price $1,550
33. 2025-10-24
    listed $1,600
34. 2025-10-23
    historical $1,600
35. 2025-09-30
    listed $1,600
36. 2025-09-30
    historical $1,600
37. 2025-08-23
    listed $1,600
38. 2022-09-02
    soldstatus
39. 2019-04-10
    soldstatus
40. 2019-03-27
    soldstatus
41. 2019-03-18
    soldstatus
42. 2019-02-15
    historical
43. 2019-01-15
    price $69,500
44. 2018-12-29
    listed $76,500 Active
45. 1988-01-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,510 · $209/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,020 · $252/mo
• Expected delta: +$509/yr (+$42/mo · 20.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 67% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,291
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$2,510
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,303
• − Management: −$1,303
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$3,693
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$886
• After-tax cash flow: $38/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 19,795
• Household income: $37,415
• Rent vs Own: 58.2% rent · 41.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1446.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 77% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 11% White 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.02%
• Current HPI: 180.4283
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.77%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+115.7% since first listed

35 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Price Changed $165,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-14 Listed for Rent $1,495 HARMLS
• 2026-05-14 Rental Removed $1,495 HARMLS
• 2026-05-13 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-13 Listed $170,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $168,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-04 Listed for Rent $1,495 HARMLS
• 2026-04-03 Rental Removed $1,495 HARMLS
• 2026-04-03 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-03 Listed $170,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-05 Listed for Rent $1,495 HARMLS
• 2026-03-04 Rental Removed $1,495 HARMLS
• 2026-03-03 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-03 Listed $169,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-29 Price Changed $1,495 HARMLS
• 2026-01-14 Listed for Rent $1,500 HARMLS
• 2026-01-13 Rental Removed $1,500 HARMLS
• 2026-01-06 Listed $170,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-27 Price Changed $1,500 HARMLS
• 2025-12-04 Listed for Rent $1,550 HARMLS
• 2025-12-03 Rental Removed $1,550 HARMLS
• 2025-11-15 Price Changed $1,550 HARMLS
• 2025-10-24 Listed for Rent $1,600 HARMLS
• 2025-10-23 Rental Removed $1,600 HARMLS
• 2025-09-30 Listed for Rent $1,600 HARMLS
• 2025-09-30 Rental Removed $1,600 APPFOLIO
• 2025-08-23 Listed for Rent $1,600 APPFOLIO
• 2022-09-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-04-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-03-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-03-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-02-15 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2019-01-15 Price Changed $69,500 HARMLS
• 2018-12-29 Listed $76,500 HARMLS
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,510 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.