5201 Jessica Dr · Doffing, TX 78574

$99,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,350 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 136 Days on market

Built 1975 0.51 ac lot $73/sqft · 47% below area Est $187k · 47% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fixer upper, 3 bedroom 2 bath house on 1/2 acre corner lot in Mission TX. North of 3 mile line. Great opportunity. A new roof was installed in 2024. Posible owner finance with 15% down. Call agent for more information or to schedule a visit.

Key facts

• New roof
• Corner lot
• 0.51 acre lot

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• CORNER LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $416 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $87k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#1,406 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: crime D+, schools F, amenities F.
• La Joya ISD (suburban): math 18% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #759 of 826 in TX (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 474 active listings in the ZIP; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 136 days — a 12% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 97% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 136 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.51% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.90%
• DSCR: 1.93
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $187,317
• List price: $99,000
• Delta: -47.15%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5208 Sunny Cir	0.52mi	2/2.0	1,150 (-15%)	23mo	$195,000	$170	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.38×
• Total profit: $10,541
• Equity at exit: $14,761

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.57×
• Total profit: $43,613
• Equity at exit: $8,560

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78574

• Home prices YoY: -16.1%
• Active inventory: 474
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,498 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$140 /mo · $1,682/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $416

Break-even live

Break-even rent $971

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $472	-5% $444	+0% $416	+5% $388	+10% $360
Rent	-10% $298	-5% $357	+0% $416	+5% $475	+10% $535
Rate	-1.0pp $466	-0.5pp $441	base $416	+0.5pp $391	+1.0pp $364

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,000 Active 136 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,000 Active 135 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,000 Active 134 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,000 Active 133 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $99,000 Active 131 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,000 Active 130 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $99,000 Active 128 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,000 Active 127 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,000 Active 126 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,000 Active 125 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $99,000 Active 122 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,000 Active 121 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,000 Active 120 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,000 Active 119 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,000 Active 118 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,000 Active 117 DOM
17. 2026-03-23
    price $1,000
18. 2026-01-28
    listed $119,000 Active 242-char remark

    Show marketing remark (242 chars)

    Fixer upper, 3 bedroom 2 bath house on 1/2 acre corner lot in Mission TX. North of 3 mile line. Great opportunity. A new roof was installed in 2024. Posible owner finance with 15% down. Call agent for more information or to schedule a visit.

19. 2026-01-21
    listed $1,100
20. 2023-10-26
    historical $900
21. 2023-10-22
    listed $900
22. 2022-11-23
    soldstatus
23. 2019-01-03
    price $37,000 182-char remark

    Show marketing remark (182 chars)

    3/2 ON A TREE FILLED 1/2 ACRE LOT IN MISSION. ALSO HAS A 1/1 RV AND COVER THAT WILL CONVEY. GREAT FOR A TREE FARM, WEEK-END GET AWAY OR JUST ENJOYING COUNTRY LIVING....BRING OFFERS.

24. 2018-12-28
    status Pending 182-char remark

    Show marketing remark (182 chars)

    3/2 ON A TREE FILLED 1/2 ACRE LOT IN MISSION. ALSO HAS A 1/1 RV AND COVER THAT WILL CONVEY. GREAT FOR A TREE FARM, WEEK-END GET AWAY OR JUST ENJOYING COUNTRY LIVING....BRING OFFERS.

25. 2018-12-28
    soldstatus Sold 182-char remark

    Show marketing remark (182 chars)

    3/2 ON A TREE FILLED 1/2 ACRE LOT IN MISSION. ALSO HAS A 1/1 RV AND COVER THAT WILL CONVEY. GREAT FOR A TREE FARM, WEEK-END GET AWAY OR JUST ENJOYING COUNTRY LIVING....BRING OFFERS.

26. 2018-12-28
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (182 chars)

    3/2 ON A TREE FILLED 1/2 ACRE LOT IN MISSION. ALSO HAS A 1/1 RV AND COVER THAT WILL CONVEY. GREAT FOR A TREE FARM, WEEK-END GET AWAY OR JUST ENJOYING COUNTRY LIVING....BRING OFFERS.

27. 2018-12-26
    price $44,900 182-char remark

    Show marketing remark (182 chars)

    3/2 ON A TREE FILLED 1/2 ACRE LOT IN MISSION. ALSO HAS A 1/1 RV AND COVER THAT WILL CONVEY. GREAT FOR A TREE FARM, WEEK-END GET AWAY OR JUST ENJOYING COUNTRY LIVING....BRING OFFERS.

28. 2018-10-31
    price $44,900 182-char remark

    Show marketing remark (182 chars)

    3/2 ON A TREE FILLED 1/2 ACRE LOT IN MISSION. ALSO HAS A 1/1 RV AND COVER THAT WILL CONVEY. GREAT FOR A TREE FARM, WEEK-END GET AWAY OR JUST ENJOYING COUNTRY LIVING....BRING OFFERS.

29. 2018-07-27
    listed $49,900 Active 182-char remark

    Show marketing remark (182 chars)

    3/2 ON A TREE FILLED 1/2 ACRE LOT IN MISSION. ALSO HAS A 1/1 RV AND COVER THAT WILL CONVEY. GREAT FOR A TREE FARM, WEEK-END GET AWAY OR JUST ENJOYING COUNTRY LIVING....BRING OFFERS.

30. 2016-10-12
    price $80,000
31. 2004-11-04
    soldstatus
32. 2004-11-04
    soldstatus
33. 1994-11-19
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,682 · $140/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,812 · $151/mo
• Expected delta: +$129/yr (+$11/mo · 7.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 97% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,974
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$1,682
• − Insurance: −$1,292
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,438
• − Management: −$1,438
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $3,698
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$887
• After-tax cash flow: $4,107/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: La Joya ISD
• NCES district ID: 4826130
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -35.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $27,845
• Composite: 18.65/100
• National rank: #8891
• State rank: #759 of 826 in TX

Livability — Doffing

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #1406
• US rank: #24060

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Doffing, TX
• County: Hidalgo County · 623,128 people
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• Population (ZIP): 62,456
• Household income: $52,393
• Rent vs Own: 20.0% rent · 80.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 803.0

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 97% Two or more races 62% White 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 93%
• Foreign-born: 33% · Canada
• Languages at home: 12% English-only · Spanish 87%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -44.13%
• Current HPI: 230.3323
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-98.8% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $1,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2026-01-28 Listed $119,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2026-01-21 Listed for Rent $1,100 MCALLENMLS
• 2023-10-26 Rental Removed $900 LISTANZA
• 2023-10-22 Listed for Rent $900 LISTANZA
• 2022-11-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-01-03 Price Changed $37,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2018-12-28 Pending — MCALLENMLS
• 2018-12-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-12-28 Sold (MLS) — MCALLENMLS
• 2018-12-26 Price Changed $44,900 MCALLENMLS
• 2018-10-31 Price Changed $44,900 MCALLENMLS
• 2018-07-27 Listed $49,900 MCALLENMLS
• 2016-10-12 Price Changed $80,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2004-11-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-11-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1994-11-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,682 · -11.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.