1957 Private Road 3836 · Hawk Cove, TX 75474

$99,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,064 sqft · SingleFamily · 82 Days on market

Built 1985 0.34 ac lot $93/sqft · 35% below area Est $153k · 35% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.0/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Prime Investment Opportunity Near Lake Tawakoni! Investors, seize this chance to own a singlewide mobile home nestled on three spacious lots, perfect for generating rental income with minimal updates. This property features a carport and a shed for added convenience and storage. Located just minutes from Lake Tawakoni, Texas’ premier catfish capital, it’s an ideal spot for tenants seeking outdoor recreation. Bonus Deal! The seller also owns a second property across the street at 1952 Private Road 3836, sitting on three additional lots with a spacious building ready to be transformed into livable space. Purchase both properties together for a special discounted price and maximize your investment potential! Motivated Seller – All Offers Welcome! Don’t miss this rare opportunity to secure two properties in a high-potential area. All information is approximate and to be verified by buyer and buyer's agent.

Key facts

• Shed
• Three spacious lots
• Carport

Tags

• SINGLEWIDE MOBILE HOME
• THREE SPACIOUS LOTS
• CARPORT
• SHED
• MINUTES FROM LAKE TAWAKONI
• SPACIOUS BUILDING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $413 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $93k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.3% vs local median 3.6% in Hawk Cove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#1,499 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Quinlan ISD (rural): math 27% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #610 of 826 in TX (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 335 active listings in the ZIP; 1,289 units permitted in Hunt County in 2024 (527 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($684 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hunt County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($93k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $93,060 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.89%
• DSCR: 1.80
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $153,174
• List price: $99,000
• Delta: -35.37%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9522 Coit Rd	0.12mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,152 (+8%)	14mo	$249,900	$217	60
1840 Evelyn St	0.75mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,104 (+4%)	15mo	$130,000	$118	42
2542 Red Bud Trl	0.73mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,201 (+13%)	16mo	$160,000	$133	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.90×
• Total profit: $80,267
• Equity at exit: $89,187

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.4%
• Equity multiple: 8.78×
• Total profit: $215,710
• Equity at exit: $192,335

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75474

• Home prices YoY: 7.5%
• Active inventory: 335
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,389 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$124 /mo · $1,485/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$292
• Net cashflow: $413

Break-even live

Break-even rent $866

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 65%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,000 Active 82 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,000 Active 81 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,000 Active 80 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,000 Active 79 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,000 Active 77 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,000 Active 73 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,000 Active 72 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $99,000 Active 71 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $99,000 Active 68 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,000 Active 67 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,000 Active 66 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,000 Active 65 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,000 Active 64 DOM
14. 2026-03-28
    listed $99,000 Active 943-char remark

    Show marketing remark (943 chars)

    Prime Investment Opportunity Near Lake Tawakoni! Investors, seize this chance to own a singlewide mobile home nestled on three spacious lots, perfect for generating rental income with minimal updates. This property features a carport and a shed for added convenience and storage. Located just minutes from Lake Tawakoni, Texas’ premier catfish capital, it’s an ideal spot for tenants seeking outdoor recreation. Bonus Deal! The seller also owns a second property across the street at 1952 Private Road 3836, sitting on three additional lots with a spacious building ready to be transformed into livable space. Purchase both properties together for a special discounted price and maximize your investment potential! Motivated Seller – All Offers Welcome! Don’t miss this rare opportunity to secure two properties in a high-potential area. All information is approximate and to be verified by buyer and buyer's agent.

15. 2026-03-23
    historical
16. 2026-02-10
    status Active
17. 2025-09-24
    listed $110,000 Active
18. 2005-11-05
    soldstatus
19. 2005-08-31
    historical
20. 2005-05-31
    listed $45,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,671
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$1,485
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,334
• − Management: −$1,334
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $3,599
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$864
• After-tax cash flow: $4,097/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Quinlan ISD
• NCES district ID: 4836240
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $45,461
• Composite: 26.16/100
• National rank: #7271
• State rank: #610 of 826 in TX

Livability — Hawk Cove

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #1499
• US rank: #25625

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hunt County · 71,969 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 17,671
• Household income: $64,103
• Rent vs Own: 17.8% rent · 82.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 181.0

Population outlook (Hunt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 97,090 people
• By 2030: 100,452 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 106,544 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 111,218 · +14.6%
• By 2075: 121,695 · +25.3%
• By 2100: 123,683 · +27.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 8% Asian 1% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hunt

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.5) · D 21.9% · R 77.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.9pp toward R · 2008: -40.6pp · 2024: -55.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.5 2020: R+52.5 2016: R+56.3 2012: R+51.2 2008: R+40.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 33.95%
• Current HPI: 484.21
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+120.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-28 Listed $99,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-23 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-02-10 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2025-09-24 Listed $110,000 NTREIS
• 2005-11-05 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2005-08-31 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2005-05-31 Listed $45,000 NTREIS