2358 Churchill Dr · Sumter, SC 29153

$50,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Other public records · 73 Days on market

Built 1984 0.88 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Well-loved 2-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home with a spacious, comfortable layout, good size kitchen and plenty of charm. Sitting on a beautiful lot, this home offers a peaceful setting with room to enjoy the outdoors. Inside, you'll find a split bedroom plan that feels open and welcoming, making it easy to feel right at home. The property also includes a great back porch, carport and a generously sized storage shed, perfect for extra storage or hobbies. Whether you're looking for a cozy place to settle in or a smart investment opportunity, this property has great potential. Being sold AS-IS.

Key facts

• Split bedroom plan
• Great back porch
• Peaceful setting

Tags

• SPLIT BEDROOM PLAN
• GREAT BACK PORCH
• GENEROUSLY SIZED STORAGE SHED
• PEACEFUL SETTING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $417 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($982 rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $47k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.3% vs local median 3.4% in Sumter — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#235 in SC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Sumter 01 (urban): math 18% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #64 of 80 in SC (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Ebenezer Middle (math 10% / reading 24%, grade F, #191 of 229 statewide, top 85%, 371 students, 100% FRL); Crestwood High (math 32% / reading 71%, grade D+, #146 of 196 statewide, top 75%, 1,100 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 64% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 216 active listings in the ZIP; 386 units permitted in Sumter County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $346 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sumter County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($47k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $50k implies a 67% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $47,000 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.96% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.70%
• DSCR: 2.59
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.32×
• Total profit: $18,450
• Equity at exit: $7,455

10-year hold

• IRR: 38.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.59×
• Total profit: $50,320
• Equity at exit: $4,323

Cash invested: $14,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State South Carolina: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 29153

• Active inventory: 216
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $982 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$76 /mo · $913/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$206
• Net cashflow: $417

Break-even live

Break-even rent $455

Max offer price $50,000

Occupancy floor 53%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,500
• Closing costs: $1,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-03-23
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-20
   price $50,000
3. 2026-01-29
   price $82,500
4. 2026-01-06
   listed $92,500 Active
5. 2011-01-13
   soldstatus $30,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast SC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $913 · $76/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $913 · $76/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,782
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,801
• − Property taxes: −$913
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$943
• − Management: −$943
• − Depreciation: −$1,455
• Taxable income: $4,479
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,075
• After-tax cash flow: $3,923/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sumter 01
• NCES district ID: 4503902
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $40,423
• Composite: 19.45/100
• National rank: #8775
• State rank: #64 of 80 in SC

Livability — Sumter

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #235
• US rank: #19754

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 67,992
• Population (ZIP): 15,101

Population outlook (Sumter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 104,585 people
• By 2030: 102,282 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 96,258 · -8.0%
• By 2050: 89,592 · -14.3%
• By 2075: 74,715 · -28.6%
• By 2100: 60,235 · -42.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (57%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 57% White 35% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Serbian 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sumter

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.9% · R 47.0% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: 15.4pp · 2024: 4.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+4.9 2020: D+13.0 2016: D+12.0 2012: D+17.5 2008: D+15.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -110.70%
• Current HPI: 128.7395
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.51%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in SC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Packaging	1	$7B

Price history

+66.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-23 Pending — SBOR
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $50,000 SBOR
• 2026-01-29 Price Changed $82,500 SBOR
• 2026-01-06 Listed $92,500 SBOR
• 2011-01-13 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $913 · +175.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.