419 Crockers Nub Rd · Middlesex, NC 27557

$225,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,221 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1978

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.8/30.0
• Appreciation +8.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 419 Crockers Nub Rd! This practical 3-bedroom, 2-full bath brick ranch offers comfortable one-level living in a peaceful rural Johnston County setting. With 1,221 square feet, walk-in closets in every bedroom, a dedicated laundry room, carport, fireplace, and whole-home Generac generator, this home combines comfort, functionality, and peace of mind. The eat-in kitchen features a unique built-in seating area and opens seamlessly to the main living space. Outside, enjoy mature trees, scenic field views, a gravel drive, and a quieter country setting with convenient access to major highways and the Triangle. A well-loved home with character, practical features, and plenty of opportun

Key facts

• Walk-in closets
• Scenic field views
• Mature trees

Tags

• WALK-IN CLOSETS
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM
• WHOLE-HOME GENERAC GENERATOR
• BUILT-IN SEATING AREA
• MATURE TREES
• SCENIC FIELD VIEWS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: RAG
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Carport
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank
• Home design: House; One story; Accessible approach with ramp; Standby generator; Facing/direction not specified
• Construction: Brick and wood siding exterior; Architectural shingle roof; Shingle roof; Brick/mortar and concrete perimeter foundation (permanent)
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch areas; Deck; Front porch; Rear porch; Private yard; Rain gutters; Exterior storage; Fencing noted (see remarks)

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Wall oven; Eat-in kitchen; Breakfast bar
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Combination flooring; Hardwood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: No heating system listed; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Bathtub/shower combination; Shower-only bathroom; Breakfast bar; Built-in features; Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Natural woodwork; Primary bedroom on main level; Storage; Walk-in closet
• Laundry & utility: Storage (utility space noted)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $143 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $186k (17.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $186k (17.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 3.1% in Middlesex — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#551 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Johnston County Public Schools (rural): math 39% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #105 of 178 in NC (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: North Johnston Middle (math 26% / reading 36%, grade F, #326 of 475 statewide, top 69%, 600 students, 72% FRL); North Johnston High (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #445 of 535 statewide, top 84%, 787 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 67% FRL vs 41% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 178 active listings in the ZIP; 2,783 units permitted in Johnston County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (7.7% local appreciation)).
• Johnston County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (7.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $63k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 73% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $185,893 (17.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.73%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.73% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.55×
• Total profit: $97,871
• Equity at exit: $166,853

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.39×
• Total profit: $276,865
• Equity at exit: $327,380

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27557

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 178
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,859 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$51 /mo · $617/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$390
• Net cashflow: $143

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,677

Max offer price $225,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $271	-5% $207	+0% $143	+5% $80	+10% $16
Rent	-10% $-3	-5% $70	+0% $143	+5% $217	+10% $290
Rate	-1.0pp $257	-0.5pp $201	base $143	+0.5pp $85	+1.0pp $26

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $225,000 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $225,000 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $225,000 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-05
   remarks 699-char remark
5. 2026-06-05
   listed $225,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $617 · $51/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,845 · $154/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,228/yr (+$102/mo · 199.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 73% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,307
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$617
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,785
• − Management: −$1,785
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$2,153
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$517
• After-tax cash flow: $2,238/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Johnston County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3702370
• Math proficiency: 39% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $50,912
• Composite: 34.99/100
• National rank: #5052
• State rank: #105 of 178 in NC

Livability — Middlesex

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #551
• US rank: #20308

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,407

Population outlook (Johnston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 222,440 people
• By 2030: 240,227 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 274,616 · +23.5%
• By 2050: 304,915 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 369,507 · +66.1%
• By 2100: 406,280 · +82.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 23% Black 13% Two or more races 13% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 23%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.5) · D 38.7% · R 60.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.2pp toward D · 2008: -23.7pp · 2024: -21.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.5 2020: R+24.3 2016: R+30.7 2012: R+27.8 2008: R+23.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.73%
• Current HPI: 311.489
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $225,000 TMLS

Property tax history

-1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $617 · +52.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.