1923 Kelly St · Alexandria, LA 71301

$35,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,266 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 499 Days on market

Built 1940 6,098 sqft lot Est $27k · 32% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investor SPECIAL. Currently rented, $700 month rent, central heat and air, hardwood floors. Sold AS IS, seller will do no repairs, Bring all offers.

Key facts

• Central heat and air
• Hardwood floors
• 6,098 sq ft lot

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• CENTRAL HEAT AND AIR

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No designated parking
• Home design: Single family residence
• Construction: Wood siding and frame construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: No fencing; Composition roof; Wood siding construction; Frame construction

Interior

• Bedrooms: Bedroom 1; Bedroom 2; Bedroom 3
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Living room; Dining room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $35k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $927 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $35k).
• Recommended offer: $31k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 38.1% vs local median 4.9% in Alexandria — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#160 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Rapides Parish (urban): math 29% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #31 of 98 in LA (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 151 active listings in the ZIP; 239 units permitted in Rapides Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $242 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Rapides County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 499 days — a 12% lower offer ($31k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask is 4900% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $24k; 43% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 98% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $30,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 499 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 38.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 113.52%
• DSCR: 6.05
• GRM: 2.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $26,586
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2037 Day St	0.12mi	3/1.0	1,289 (+2%)	4mo	$5,500	$4	88
1923 Kelly St	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,361 (+8%)	1mo	$28,000	$21	87
31 Gordon Ave	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,194 (-6%)	1mo	$27,000	$23	79
1731 Elliott St	0.44mi	3/1.0	1,250 (-1%)	3mo	$7,500	$6	75
18 Mary St	0.29mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,200 (-5%)	7mo	$41,800	$35	67
2236 Paris St	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,402 (+11%)	6mo	$20,000	$14	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.45×
• Total profit: $53,386
• Equity at exit: $5,219

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 13.51×
• Total profit: $122,565
• Equity at exit: $3,026

Cash invested: $9,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71301

• Home prices YoY: -23.0%
• Active inventory: 151
• Price-to-rent: 2.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,458 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$184
• Tax from tax record: −$27 /mo · $320/yr
• Insurance: −$15
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$306
• Net cashflow: $927

Break-even live

Break-even rent $285

Max offer price $35,000

Occupancy floor 31%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $947	-5% $937	+0% $927	+5% $917	+10% $907
Rent	-10% $812	-5% $869	+0% $927	+5% $985	+10% $1,042
Rate	-1.0pp $945	-0.5pp $936	base $927	+0.5pp $918	+1.0pp $909

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,750
• Closing costs: $1,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-04-30
   status Pending
2. 2025-12-07
   historical $700
3. 2025-10-21
   listed $700
4. 2024-08-15
   listed $35,000 Active
5. 2024-07-04
   historical $700
6. 2024-05-29
   listed $700
7. 2020-06-19
   listed $33,000
8. 2009-03-02
   soldstatus $24,500
9. 2008-10-09
   listed $25,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $320 · $27/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $320 · $27/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 98% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,497
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,961
• − Property taxes: −$320
• − Insurance: −$175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,400
• − Management: −$1,400
• − Depreciation: −$1,018
• Taxable income: $11,224
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,694
• After-tax cash flow: $8,431/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rapides Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201290
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -34.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -29.00%
• Median HH income: $41,057
• Composite: 30.68/100
• National rank: #6179
• State rank: #31 of 98 in LA

Livability — Alexandria

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #160
• US rank: #13698

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Alexandria, LA
• City population: 25,138
• Population (ZIP): 17,266

Population outlook (Rapides County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 133,047 people
• By 2030: 132,333 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 129,355 · -2.8%
• By 2050: 124,535 · -6.4%
• By 2075: 110,338 · -17.1%
• By 2100: 88,641 · -33.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 53% White 36% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Portuguese 1% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Rapides

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.8) · D 31.0% · R 67.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.1pp toward R · 2008: -28.7pp · 2024: -36.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.8 2020: R+32.1 2016: R+32.5 2012: R+29.6 2008: R+28.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.38%
• Current HPI: 184.9889
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+40.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Pending — AcadianaMLS
• 2025-12-07 Rental Removed $700 APPFOLIO
• 2025-10-21 Listed for Rent $700 APPFOLIO
• 2024-08-15 Listed $35,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2024-07-04 Rental Removed $700 APPFOLIO
• 2024-05-29 Listed for Rent $700 APPFOLIO
• 2020-06-19 Listed $33,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2009-03-02 Sold (Public Records) $24,500 Public Records
• 2008-10-09 Listed $25,000 AcadianaMLS

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $320 · -1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.