1406 NW Lincoln Ave · Lawton, OK 73507

$44,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 580 sqft · SingleFamily public records

Built 1949 6,600 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investment property, currently tenant occupied. The seller of this property is a licensed real estate broker in Oklahoma.

Key facts

• 6,600 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1949

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $44k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $449 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($909 rent vs $44k).
• Cap rate 18.6% vs local median 6.1% in Lawton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#206 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, commute F.
• Lawton (urban): math 20% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #137 of 270 in OK (top 51%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Pat Henry Es (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #604 of 845 statewide, top 76%, 508 students, 0% FRL); Central Ms (math 17% / reading 24%, grade F, #153 of 345 statewide, top 45%, 994 students, 0% FRL); Lawton Hs (math 16% / reading 21%, grade F, #302 of 447 statewide, top 68%, 1,417 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 54% district-wide (54 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 208 active listings in the ZIP; 133 units permitted in Comanche County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 18% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $304 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Comanche County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.2% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $18k; list at $44k implies a 138% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $44,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 43.78%
• DSCR: 2.95
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.25% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.55×
• Total profit: $19,038
• Equity at exit: $6,561

10-year hold

• IRR: 42.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.56×
• Total profit: $43,895
• Equity at exit: $3,804

Cash invested: $12,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 73507

• Home prices YoY: -23.2%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 208
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $909 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$231
• Tax from tax record: −$20 /mo · $239/yr
• Insurance: −$18
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$191
• Net cashflow: $449

Break-even live

Break-even rent $340

Max offer price $44,000

Occupancy floor 46%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,000
• Closing costs: $1,320
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-20
   historical
2. 2026-05-19
   listed $44,000
3. 1994-07-15
   soldstatus $18,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OK · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $239 · $20/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $396 · $33/mo
• Expected delta: +$157/yr (+$13/mo · 65.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,913
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,465
• − Property taxes: −$239
• − Insurance: −$220
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$873
• − Management: −$873
• − Depreciation: −$1,280
• Taxable income: $4,963
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,191
• After-tax cash flow: $4,202/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lawton
• NCES district ID: 4017250
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $42,618
• Composite: 19.68/100
• National rank: #8732
• State rank: #137 of 270 in OK

Livability — Lawton

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #206
• US rank: #15131

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lawton, OK
• County: Comanche County · 96,361 people
• City population: 89,233
• Metro: Lawton, OK
• Population (ZIP): 21,046
• Household income: $62,132
• Rent vs Own: 42.1% rent · 57.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 979.0

Population outlook (Comanche County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 124,518 people
• By 2030: 124,231 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 122,193 · -1.9%
• By 2050: 120,368 · -3.3%
• By 2075: 120,492 · -3.2%
• By 2100: 123,113 · -1.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 13% Black 13% Native American 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Comanche

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.3) · D 37.4% · R 60.7% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.8pp toward R · 2008: -17.5pp · 2024: -23.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.3 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+23.7 2012: R+17.0 2008: R+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -38.48%
• Current HPI: 127.057
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.25%
• Metro: Lawton, OK
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B

Price history

+137.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Delisted — LBRMLS
• 2026-05-19 Listed $44,000 LBRMLS
• 1994-07-15 Sold (Public Records) $18,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $239 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.