4411 45th St · Lubbock, TX 79414

$125,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,626 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 27 Days on market

Built 1956 7,735 sqft lot $77/sqft · 40% below area Est $207k · 40% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.6/10.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This home is located in a quiet, established neighborhood in central Lubbock, offering convenient access to schools, shopping, and dining. The low-traffic area and neighborhood stability make this property appealing for long-term tenancy. This property presents a solid opportunity for investors seeking rental income or portfolio growth in a consistently performing area of Lubbock! Schedule a showing to explore the potential this property offers.

Key facts

• Low traffic area
• 7,735 sq ft lot
• Garage

Tags

• QUIET ESTABLISHED NEIGHBORHOOD
• CONVENIENT ACCESS TO SCHOOLS
• CONVENIENT ACCESS TO SHOPPING
• CONVENIENT ACCESS TO DINING
• LOW TRAFFIC AREA
• NEIGHBORHOOD STABILITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $238 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $123k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 89 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 48% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($49k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,125 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.16%
• DSCR: 1.36
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $206,861
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: -39.57%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.56% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-8,519
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-1,245
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79414

• Home prices YoY: -27.8%
• Rents YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 89
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,444 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$195 /mo · $2,342/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$303
• Net cashflow: $238

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,143

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4310 42nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1754	$1,700	$0.97	44d	1	0.27mi
4413 40th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,350	$1.17	21d	1	0.27mi
4315 41st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1558	$1,450	$0.93	21d	1	0.27mi
4602 50th St Lubbock, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1080	$1,368	$1.27	13d	9	0.32mi
4619 43rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1404	$1,500	$1.07	44d	1	0.34mi
4211 41st St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1960	$1,599	$0.82	44d	1	0.35mi
4708 43rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.5	1249	$1,350	$1.08	44d	1	0.39mi
4320 52nd St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.5	1200	$1,395	$1.16	44d	1	0.40mi
4707 42nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1053	$1,049	$1.00	13d	1	0.41mi
4314 52nd St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1863	$1,400	$0.75	21d	1	0.41mi
4210 52nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1715	$1,575	$0.92	13d	1	0.46mi
4803 43rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1412	$1,200	$0.85	21d	1	0.49mi
4313 53rd St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.5	1368	$1,200	$0.88	44d	1	0.51mi
4815 43rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1282	$1,500	$1.17	21d	1	0.56mi
4819 44th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1412	$1,300	$0.92	44d	1	0.57mi
4213 54th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1680	$1,550	$0.92	13d	1	0.60mi
3712 47th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1767	$1,400	$0.79	21d	1	0.61mi
4817 40th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1254	$1,300	$1.04	13d	1	0.64mi
4324 56th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	2014	$2,000	$0.99	44d	1	0.66mi
4916 46th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1377	$1,450	$1.05	13d	1	0.66mi
4907 41st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1196	$1,200	$1.00	44d	1	0.67mi
4926 48th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1354	$1,500	$1.11	21d	1	0.68mi
4606 35th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1684	$1,800	$1.07	44d	1	0.70mi
5002 46th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1369	$1,450	$1.06	44d	1	0.71mi
3612 44th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1675	$1,850	$1.10	44d	1	0.72mi
4801 36th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1424	$1,275	$0.90	21d	1	0.73mi
3812 36th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1458	$1,500	$1.03	21d	1	0.76mi
4428 33rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.5	1685	$1,375	$0.82	44d	1	0.80mi
3712 37th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1672	$2,100	$1.26	44d	1	0.80mi
4430 33rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,100	$0.78	44d	1	0.80mi
4818 36th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1285	$1,400	$1.09	21d	1	0.80mi
5017 46th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1753	$1,600	$0.91	44d	1	0.81mi
4313 58th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.5	1165	$1,099	$0.94	44d	1	0.81mi
3631 54th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.5	1145	$1,099	$0.96	44d	1	0.82mi
4303 58th St Unit a Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.5	1170	$1,050	$0.90	44d	1	0.82mi
5018 Kenosha Ave Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.5	1245	$1,275	$1.02	13d	1	0.83mi
5101 44th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1160	$1,350	$1.16	21d	1	0.84mi
5202 Kenosha Ave Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0–1.5	1082	$1,022	$0.94	21d	1	0.86mi
4304 32nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1174	$1,395	$1.19	13d	1	0.86mi
5302 Kenosha Ave Unit 5324 Kenosha Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.5	1300	$950	$0.73	13d	1	0.88mi

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 24 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $125,000 Active 22 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 21 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $125,000 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 16 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $125,000 Active 13 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 11 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 10 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 9 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $125,000 Active 8 DOM
17. 2026-04-15
    price $125,000 450-char remark

    Show marketing remark (450 chars)

    This home is located in a quiet, established neighborhood in central Lubbock, offering convenient access to schools, shopping, and dining. The low-traffic area and neighborhood stability make this property appealing for long-term tenancy. This property presents a solid opportunity for investors seeking rental income or portfolio growth in a consistently performing area of Lubbock! Schedule a showing to explore the potential this property offers.

18. 2026-03-09
    historical $1,249
19. 2026-02-07
    price $1,249
20. 2026-02-04
    listed $135,000 Active 450-char remark

    Show marketing remark (450 chars)

    This home is located in a quiet, established neighborhood in central Lubbock, offering convenient access to schools, shopping, and dining. The low-traffic area and neighborhood stability make this property appealing for long-term tenancy. This property presents a solid opportunity for investors seeking rental income or portfolio growth in a consistently performing area of Lubbock! Schedule a showing to explore the potential this property offers.

21. 2026-01-29
    listed $1,299
22. 2026-01-25
    historical $1,299
23. 2025-11-07
    price $1,299
24. 2025-10-25
    price $1,349
25. 2025-05-22
    listed $1,399
26. 2024-09-01
    historical $1,299
27. 2024-07-26
    listed $1,299
28. 2022-07-01
    price $1,199
29. 2017-10-19
    soldstatus
30. 2017-10-16
    soldstatus 396-char remark

    Show marketing remark (396 chars)

    This is a great home for investors or first time home buyers. The location is close to Texas Tech and the hospitals. You have the option of 2 living areas or a very large 4th bedroom. The front bathroom has recently been remodeled and the original hardwood floors are still in the home. Enjoy the large backyard and patio for hang outs. Please feel free to call us for more information if needed.

31. 2017-09-13
    listed $70,000 396-char remark

    Show marketing remark (396 chars)

    This is a great home for investors or first time home buyers. The location is close to Texas Tech and the hospitals. You have the option of 2 living areas or a very large 4th bedroom. The front bathroom has recently been remodeled and the original hardwood floors are still in the home. Enjoy the large backyard and patio for hang outs. Please feel free to call us for more information if needed.

32. 2004-07-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,342 · $195/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,342 · $195/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,326
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$2,342
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,386
• − Management: −$1,386
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $949
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$228
• After-tax cash flow: $2,627/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828500
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,820
• Composite: 31.44/100
• National rank: #5984
• State rank: #481 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 17,596
• Household income: $49,057
• Rent vs Own: 65.4% rent · 34.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1330.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 39% Two or more races 21% Black 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 16%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -95.31%
• Current HPI: 247.7963
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.56%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+78.6% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $125,000 LARMLS
• 2026-03-09 Rental Removed $1,249 SHOWMOJO
• 2026-02-07 Price Changed $1,249 SHOWMOJO
• 2026-02-04 Listed $135,000 LARMLS
• 2026-01-29 Listed for Rent $1,299 SHOWMOJO
• 2026-01-25 Rental Removed $1,299 SHOWMOJO
• 2025-11-07 Price Changed $1,299 SHOWMOJO
• 2025-10-25 Price Changed $1,349 SHOWMOJO
• 2025-05-22 Listed for Rent $1,399 SHOWMOJO
• 2024-09-01 Rental Removed $1,299 SHOWMOJO
• 2024-07-26 Listed for Rent $1,299 SHOWMOJO
• 2022-07-01 Price Changed $1,199 RENT.
• 2017-10-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-10-16 Sold (MLS) — LARMLS
• 2017-09-13 Listed $70,000 LARMLS
• 2004-07-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,342 · +11.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.