1247 Piney Ridge Pl · Big Bear Lake, CA 92333

$205,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 776 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 285 Days on market

Built 1949 6,240 sqft lot $264/sqft · 43% below area Est $362k · 43% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Remodel was started but never finished. Your chance to own a rustic cabin in the beautiful area of Fawnskin; the North Shore side of Big Bear Lake at an affordable price and finish it yourself. A lot of the building materials are on site. Reversed floor plan with kitchen and living room upstairs and bedroom and bath downstairs. Or perhaps you could add on to what's there and make it a 2 bedroom, 2 bath cabin. Kitchen appliances are already installed and will be included in the sale. Walls in the living room are insulated but need paneling. Kitchen walls are drywalled but need finish work. Sold in AS-IS condition for cash only. Possibly a good flipper home, if you can do a lot of the work yourself or keep it for yourself as a great getaway in the mountains. A great way to escape the heat of the desert. One of the lowest priced properties in the whole Big Bear Valley. Fawnskin has a general store, post office, Moose Lodge, Free Boat Launch, off-road trails and 2 marinas to rent pontoon boats and wave runners. Fawnskin is called the "quiet side" of the lake, yet offers lots of opportunities for fun and/or relaxation as its not congested like the South Shore. Come visit soon.

Key facts

• Insulated walls
• Off-road trails
• 2 marinas

Tags

• BUILDING MATERIALS ON SITE
• KITCHEN APPLIANCES INCLUDED
• INSULATED WALLS
• DRYWALLED KITCHEN WALLS
• OFF-ROAD TRAILS
• 2 MARINAS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $205k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $143 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (12.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $180k (12.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 2.4% in Big Bear Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#420 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+; Watch: crime C-, housing C-, health & safety D+.
• Bear Valley Unified (town): math 26% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #289 of 517 in CA (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 78 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 285 days — a 12% lower offer ($180k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $69k; list at $205k implies a 197% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $179,850 (12.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 285 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.98%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $362,487
• List price: $205,000
• Delta: -43.45%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1070 Comanche	0.37mi	2/1.0 (+1)	792 (+2%)	3mo	$285,000	$360	72
1130 Ridge Rd	0.08mi	1/1.0	744 (-4%)	22mo	$365,000	$491	71
1146 Ridge	0.11mi	2/1.0 (+1)	880 (+13%)	0mo	$452,000	$514	67
39178 Sioux	0.42mi	2/2.0 (+1)	768 (-1%)	6mo	$263,000	$342	65
1025 Fawnskin Dr	0.19mi	2/1.0 (+1)	840 (+8%)	18mo	$355,000	$423	58
39142 Arapahoe Rd	0.48mi	2/1.0 (+1)	870 (+12%)	3mo	$265,000	$305	50
39260 Mohawk Dr	0.32mi	2/1.0 (+1)	840 (+8%)	20mo	$399,000	$475	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-24,198
• Equity at exit: $30,566

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-9,616
• Equity at exit: $17,725

Cash invested: $57,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92333

• Home prices YoY: -7.9%
• Active inventory: 78
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,798 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax from tax record: −$118 /mo · $1,414/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $143

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,618

Max offer price $205,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,250
• Closing costs: $6,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
39219 Cedar Dell Rd Fawnskin, CA	1.0	1.0	538	$1,699	$3.16	1d	1	0.37mi
39219 Cedar Dell Rd Fawnskin, CA	2.0	1.0	538	$1,898	$3.53	43d	1	0.37mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $205,000 Active 285 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $205,000 Active 284 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $205,000 Active 283 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $205,000 Active 282 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $205,000 Active 280 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $205,000 Active 279 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $205,000 Active 276 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $205,000 Active 275 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   status $205,000 Active 274 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $205,000 Active Under Contract 274 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $205,000 Active Under Contract 271 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $205,000 Active Under Contract 270 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $205,000 Active Under Contract 269 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $205,000 Active Under Contract 268 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $205,000 Active Under Contract 267 DOM
16. 2026-02-23
    price $205,000 1200-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1200 chars)

    Remodel was started but never finished. Your chance to own a rustic cabin in the beautiful area of Fawnskin; the North Shore side of Big Bear Lake at an affordable price and finish it yourself. A lot of the building materials are on site. Reversed floor plan with kitchen and living room upstairs and bedroom and bath downstairs. Or perhaps you could add on to what's there and make it a 2 bedroom, 2 bath cabin. Kitchen appliances are already installed and will be included in the sale. Walls in the living room are insulated but need paneling. Kitchen walls are drywalled but need finish work. Sold in AS-IS condition for cash only. Possibly a good flipper home, if you can do a lot of the work yourself or keep it for yourself as a great getaway in the mountains. A great way to escape the heat of the desert. One of the lowest priced properties in the whole Big Bear Valley. Fawnskin has a general store, post office, Moose Lodge, Free Boat Launch, off-road trails and 2 marinas to rent pontoon boats and wave runners. Fawnskin is called the "quiet side" of the lake, yet offers lots of opportunities for fun and/or relaxation as its not congested like the South Shore. Come visit soon.

17. 2025-09-25
    price $225,000 1200-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1200 chars)

    Remodel was started but never finished. Your chance to own a rustic cabin in the beautiful area of Fawnskin; the North Shore side of Big Bear Lake at an affordable price and finish it yourself. A lot of the building materials are on site. Reversed floor plan with kitchen and living room upstairs and bedroom and bath downstairs. Or perhaps you could add on to what's there and make it a 2 bedroom, 2 bath cabin. Kitchen appliances are already installed and will be included in the sale. Walls in the living room are insulated but need paneling. Kitchen walls are drywalled but need finish work. Sold in AS-IS condition for cash only. Possibly a good flipper home, if you can do a lot of the work yourself or keep it for yourself as a great getaway in the mountains. A great way to escape the heat of the desert. One of the lowest priced properties in the whole Big Bear Valley. Fawnskin has a general store, post office, Moose Lodge, Free Boat Launch, off-road trails and 2 marinas to rent pontoon boats and wave runners. Fawnskin is called the "quiet side" of the lake, yet offers lots of opportunities for fun and/or relaxation as its not congested like the South Shore. Come visit soon.

18. 2025-09-05
    listed $250,000 Active 1200-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1200 chars)

    Remodel was started but never finished. Your chance to own a rustic cabin in the beautiful area of Fawnskin; the North Shore side of Big Bear Lake at an affordable price and finish it yourself. A lot of the building materials are on site. Reversed floor plan with kitchen and living room upstairs and bedroom and bath downstairs. Or perhaps you could add on to what's there and make it a 2 bedroom, 2 bath cabin. Kitchen appliances are already installed and will be included in the sale. Walls in the living room are insulated but need paneling. Kitchen walls are drywalled but need finish work. Sold in AS-IS condition for cash only. Possibly a good flipper home, if you can do a lot of the work yourself or keep it for yourself as a great getaway in the mountains. A great way to escape the heat of the desert. One of the lowest priced properties in the whole Big Bear Valley. Fawnskin has a general store, post office, Moose Lodge, Free Boat Launch, off-road trails and 2 marinas to rent pontoon boats and wave runners. Fawnskin is called the "quiet side" of the lake, yet offers lots of opportunities for fun and/or relaxation as its not congested like the South Shore. Come visit soon.

19. 2000-12-27
    soldstatus $69,000
20. 1995-10-03
    soldstatus $47,000
21. 1989-03-30
    soldstatus $10,000
22. 1987-09-29
    soldstatus $35,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,414 · $118/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,558 · $130/mo
• Expected delta: +$144/yr (+$12/mo · 10.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥83°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 24 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,582
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,483
• − Property taxes: −$1,414
• − Insurance: −$1,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,727
• − Management: −$1,727
• − Depreciation: −$5,964
• Taxable loss: −$1,757
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$422
• After-tax cash flow: $2,132/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bear Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0604230
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $42,222
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6588
• State rank: #289 of 517 in CA

Livability — Big Bear Lake

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #420
• US rank: #14284

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime C- Employment C Housing C- Health & safety D+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 5,215
• Population (ZIP): 403

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 18% Italian 6% Scottish 6%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -27.30%
• Current HPI: 318.6629
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+485.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-23 Price Changed $205,000 MRCAOR
• 2025-09-25 Price Changed $225,000 MRCAOR
• 2025-09-05 Listed $250,000 MRCAOR
• 2000-12-27 Sold (Public Records) $69,000 Public Records
• 1995-10-03 Sold (Public Records) $47,000 Public Records
• 1989-03-30 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records
• 1987-09-29 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,414 · +2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.