Lincoln F Plan · Ponder, TX 76259

$314,950

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,546 sqft · SingleFamily · 4 Days on market

Excellent condition 3-car garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Cash flow +4.1/30.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Introducing The Lincoln F Floor Plan - New Home Design Available in DFW, TXThe Lincoln Select F offers 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 1546 sq. ft. of thoughtfully designed living space that adapts to your needs. From everyday routines to special moments, this layout is built to support how you live - with comfort, functionality, and style in mind. Features like a smart one-story concept, dedicated study niche, full utility room, and a spacious living area create a flexible foundation for personalization and convenience. Whether you're relaxing, hosting, working from home, or simply enjoying daily life, the Lincoln F provides the right spaces in the right places.

Key facts

• Full utility room
• Spacious living area
• 3 garage spots

Tags

• SMART ONE-STORY CONCEPT
• DEDICATED STUDY NICHE
• FULL UTILITY ROOM
• SPACIOUS LIVING AREA

🏗️ New construction. The $314,950 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $421,507.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $315k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $253k (19.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $221k (29.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $221k (29.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.0% vs local median 4.4% in Ponder — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#787 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Ponder ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #165 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ponder El (math 39% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,514 of 4,322 statewide, top 36%, 754 students, 44% FRL); Ponder J H (math 54% / reading 50%, grade C+, #301 of 1,662 statewide, top 19%, 381 students, 40% FRL); Ponder H S (math 52% / reading 62%, grade C, #333 of 1,632 statewide, top 22%, 505 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools at 40% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 476 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $220,992 (29.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.52% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.87%
• DSCR: 0.47
• GRM: 15.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $421,507
• List price: $314,950
• Delta: -25.28%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7537 Lavender Ln	2.19mi	3/2.0	1,476 (-4%)	1mo	$322,999	$219	56
7604 Spicebush Dr	2.20mi	3/2.0	1,649 (+7%)	1mo	$299,990	$182	53
122 Davis Ln	2.08mi	3/2.5	1,442 (-7%)	1mo	$281,990	$196	51
612 Babbling Brook Dr	2.16mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,657 (+7%)	4mo	$288,990	$174	44
7721 Royal Fern Dr	2.09mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,662 (+8%)	2mo	$300,990	$181	44
5538 Schluter Rd	2.21mi	3/1.5	1,375 (-11%)	2mo	$169,900	$124	43
7608 Royal Fern Dr	2.18mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,662 (+8%)	4mo	$292,990	$176	42
8317 Old Stoney Rd	1.75mi	3/2.0	1,920 (+24%)	0mo	$324,000	$169	40
120 Granite Dr	1.58mi	3/2.0	1,792 (+16%)	1mo	$255,000	$142	40
717 Wildrye Ln	2.02mi	3/2.0	1,201 (-22%)	2mo	$269,990	$225	38
7612 Royal Fern Dr	2.17mi	3/2.0	1,201 (-22%)	4mo	$277,990	$231	37
7528 Lavender Ln	2.21mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,898 (+23%)	2mo	$369,990	$195	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -38.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.21×
• Total profit: $-142,602
• Equity at exit: $62,848

10-year hold

• IRR: -56.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.86×
• Total profit: $-219,755
• Equity at exit: $36,444

Cash invested: $118,022 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 36 active · 2 under contract
• Median asking: $319,490 ($192/sqft)
• Median days on market: 80 d
• This list price: 33% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +42.0% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76259

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Active inventory: 476
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,210 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,210
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$527 /mo · $6,323/yr
• Insurance: −$176
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$464
• Net cashflow: $-1,167

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,687

Max offer price $252,626

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-876	-5% $-1,021	+0% $-1,167	+5% $-1,313	+10% $-1,458
Rent	-10% $-1,342	-5% $-1,254	+0% $-1,167	+5% $-1,080	+10% $-993
Rate	-1.0pp $-955	-0.5pp $-1,060	base $-1,167	+0.5pp $-1,276	+1.0pp $-1,387

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $105,377
• Closing costs: $12,645
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price: $314,950

Exterior

• Parking: 3-car garage
• Home design: Lincoln F plan

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $314,950 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $314,950 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $314,950 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-11-04
   pricedays on marketlisting id $314,950 Active 1 DOM
5. 2026-11-02
   days on market $299,950 Active 200 DOM
6. 2026-11-01
   days on market $299,950 Active 199 DOM
7. 2026-10-31
   days on market $299,950 Active 198 DOM
8. 2026-10-30
   days on market $299,950 Active 197 DOM
9. 2026-10-29
   days on market $299,950 Active 196 DOM
10. 2026-10-28
    days on market $299,950 Active 195 DOM
11. 2026-10-27
    days on market $299,950 Active 194 DOM
12. 2026-10-26
    days on market $299,950 Active 193 DOM
13. 2026-10-25
    days on market $299,950 Active 192 DOM
14. 2026-10-24
    days on market $299,950 Active 191 DOM
15. 2026-10-23
    days on market $299,950 Active 190 DOM
16. 2026-10-22
    days on market $299,950 Active 189 DOM
17. 2026-10-21
    days on market $299,950 Active 188 DOM
18. 2026-10-20
    days on market $299,950 Active 187 DOM
19. 2026-10-19
    days on market $299,950 Active 186 DOM
20. 2026-10-18
    days on market $299,950 Active 185 DOM
21. 2026-10-17
    days on market $299,950 Active 184 DOM
22. 2026-10-16
    days on market $299,950 Active 183 DOM
23. 2026-10-15
    days on market $299,950 Active 182 DOM
24. 2026-10-14
    days on market $299,950 Active 181 DOM
25. 2026-10-13
    days on market $299,950 Active 180 DOM
26. 2026-10-12
    days on market $299,950 Active 179 DOM
27. 2026-10-11
    days on market $299,950 Active 178 DOM
28. 2026-10-10
    days on market $299,950 Active 177 DOM
29. 2026-10-09
    days on market $299,950 Active 176 DOM
30. 2026-10-08
    days on market $299,950 Active 175 DOM
31. 2026-10-07
    days on market $299,950 Active 174 DOM
32. 2026-10-06
    days on market $299,950 Active 173 DOM
33. 2026-10-05
    days on market $299,950 Active 172 DOM
34. 2026-10-04
    days on market $299,950 Active 171 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $299,950 Active 170 DOM
36. 2026-10-02
    days on market $299,950 Active 169 DOM
37. 2026-10-01
    days on market $299,950 Active 168 DOM
38. 2026-09-30
    days on market $299,950 Active 167 DOM
39. 2026-09-29
    days on market $299,950 Active 166 DOM
40. 2026-09-28
    days on market $299,950 Active 165 DOM
41. 2026-09-27
    days on market $299,950 Active 164 DOM
42. 2026-09-26
    days on market $299,950 Active 163 DOM
43. 2026-09-25
    days on market $299,950 Active 162 DOM
44. 2026-09-24
    days on market $299,950 Active 161 DOM
45. 2026-09-23
    days on market $299,950 Active 160 DOM
46. 2026-09-22
    days on market $299,950 Active 159 DOM
47. 2026-09-21
    days on market $299,950 Active 158 DOM
48. 2026-09-20
    days on market $299,950 Active 157 DOM
49. 2026-09-19
    days on market $299,950 Active 156 DOM
50. 2026-09-18
    pricedays on market $299,950 Active 155 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,519
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,611
• − Property taxes: −$6,323
• − Insurance: −$2,108
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,122
• − Management: −$2,122
• − Depreciation: −$12,262
• Taxable loss: −$22,027
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,286
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,719/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 10 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a great opportunity for an investor to add value through minor updates and improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Smart home integration — Improves functionality and adds modern appeal ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 50/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Ponder El F TX #1,514/4,322 Nat'l #19,354/41,679 Middle Ponder J H C+ TX #301/1,662 Nat'l #3,033/14,009 High Ponder H S C TX #333/1,632 Nat'l #4,077/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ponder ISD
• NCES district ID: 4835310
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $70,768
• Composite: 43.53/100
• National rank: #2987
• State rank: #165 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 64/100

Livability — Ponder

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #787
• US rank: #14394

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Denton County · 1,053,010 people
• City population: 6,596
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,596
• Household income: $101,845
• Rent vs Own: 26.2% rent · 73.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 30% of renters

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Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

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Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -15.17%
• Current HPI: 275.4082
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price: $314,950

Exterior

• Parking: 3-car garage
• Home design: Lincoln F plan

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms