1404 Mahogany Pl · Palm Beach Gardens, FL 33418

$495,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,855 sqft · Townhouse public records · 51 Days on market

Built 1988 3,132 sqft lot Est $649k · 24% under $223/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Located in the desirable Heather Run community of PGA National, this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath villa offers unique Saltillo tile floors, and gorgeous, colorful ceramic tiles in bathrooms and kitchen. Vaulted ceilings and an open, spacious floor plan create an abundance of natural light, while the split-bedroom layout ensures privacy. Enjoy the best of Florida living with serene natural preserve views right in your backyard—perfect for taking in breathtaking sunsets and peaceful surroundings. PGA National residents enjoy scenic walking paths, bike trails, and nearby parks that support an active, vibrant lifestyle. Optional club membership unlocks access to world-class golf, a state-of

Key facts

• Saltillo tile floors
• Scenic walking paths
• Bike trails

Tags

• SALTILLO TILE FLOORS
• CERAMIC TILES IN BATHROOMS
• CERAMIC TILES IN KITCHEN
• NATURAL PRESERVE VIEWS
• SCENIC WALKING PATHS
• BIKE TRAILS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association: Reef Property Services and PGA Property Owners Association, Inc.; HOA amenities include clubhouse, fitness center, golf course, picnic area, playground, parking, pool, tennis courts, sidewalks, street lights, and security; HOA fee $412 (paid quarterly); additional association fee billed annually; Association fee includes grounds and common area maintenance; Community of 112 units; Pets allowed (cats and dogs) with breed restrictions

Exterior

• Parking: Two parking spaces total; Attached 1-car garage; One covered space; Driveway and guest/open parking available
• Security: Smoke detectors; Security gate
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Townhouse; One story; Resale property; Faces south; Waterfront: Yes (no specific waterfront features listed)
• Construction: Stucco and CBS construction; Barrel tile roof; Slab foundation; Built (living area) 1,615 sq ft; total building area 2,130
• Exterior features: Open patio; Patio; Landscaped grounds; City street frontage; Private maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Disposal; Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Kitchen island
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Tile; Mexican tile
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Built-in features; Cathedral ceilings; Entrance foyer; High ceilings; Kitchen island; Vaulted ceilings; Walk-in closets; Split bedroom layout; Closet cabinetry; Sliding windows
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room with washer and electric dryer hookups

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $495k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $253 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $472k (4.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $472k (4.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#464 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Palm Beach (suburban): math 46% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #34 of 73 in FL (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Timber Trace Elementary School (math 76% / reading 79%, grade A, #163 of 2,144 statewide, top 8%, 825 students, 34% FRL); Watson B. Duncan Middle School (math 54% / reading 59%, grade B, #171 of 571 statewide, top 30%, 1,157 students, 41% FRL); Palm Beach Gardens High School (math 19% / reading 40%, grade F, #447 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,570 students, 61% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 532 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,974 units permitted in Palm Beach County in 2024 (1,012 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,719/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($125k/yr) (locally 1339% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Palm Beach County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($480k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $325k; list at $495k implies a 52% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $471,881 (4.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 5% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.19%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $649,250
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
904 Mahogany Pl	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,615 (-13%)	16mo	$565,000	$350	60
507 Prestwick Cir	0.35mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,818 (-2%)	22mo	$580,000	$319	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-68,676
• Equity at exit: $73,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-57,513
• Equity at exit: $42,799

Cash invested: $138,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33418

• Home prices YoY: -32.4%
• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 532
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,719 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,596
• Tax from tax record: −$449 /mo · $5,394/yr
• Insurance: −$206
• HOA: −$223
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$991
• Net cashflow: $253

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,398

Max offer price $495,000

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $123,750
• Closing costs: $14,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1401 Mahogany Pl Palm Beach Gardens, FL	2.0	2.0	1499	$8,500	$5.67	22d	1	0.04mi
1107 Duncan Cir #102 Palm Beach Gardens, FL	3.0	2.0	1268	$3,400	$2.68	24d	1	0.06mi
1302 Mahogany Pl Palm Beach Gardens, FL	2.0	2.0	1355	$8,000	$5.90	24d	1	0.06mi
1903 Rosewood Way Palm Beach Gardens, FL	2.0	2.0	1236	$3,750	$3.03	24d	1	0.11mi
1802 Rosewood Way Palm Beach Gardens, FL	2.0	2.0	1355	$3,550	$2.62	22d	1	0.15mi
1804 Rosewood Way Palm Beach Gardens, FL	3.0	2.0	1615	$8,000	$4.95	24d	1	0.15mi
802 Sabal Palm Ln Palm Beach Gardens, FL	3.0	2.0	1615	$9,995	$6.19	24d	1	0.18mi
355 Prestwick Cir #4 Palm Beach Gardens, FL	2.0	3.0	1532	$3,500	$2.28	24d	1	0.19mi
359 Prestwick Cir #2 Palm Beach Gardens, FL	2.0	3.0	1532	$3,400	$2.22	24d	1	0.22mi
352 Prestwick Cir #1 Palm Beach Gardens, FL	2.0	3.0	1532	$2,700	$1.76	24d	1	0.24mi
479 Prestwick Cir Palm Beach Gardens, FL	3.0	2.0	1818	$9,500	$5.23	24d	1	0.30mi
364 Prestwick Cir #4 Palm Beach Gardens, FL	2.0	2.5	1466	$2,600	$1.77	24d	1	0.34mi
505 Prestwick Cir Palm Beach Gardens, FL	3.0	2.0	1850	$3,250	$1.76	3d	1	0.36mi
533 Prestwick Cir Palm Beach Gardens, FL	2.0	2.0	1514	$4,000	$2.64	24d	1	0.42mi
124 Legendary Cir Palm Beach Gardens, FL	3.0	2.0	1912	$9,000	$4.71	24d	1	0.55mi
131 Legendary Cir Palm Beach Gardens, FL	2.0	2.0	1912	$9,000	$4.71	24d	1	0.62mi
108 Eagleton Ln Palm Beach Gardens, FL	3.0	2.0	2003	$6,500	$3.25	20d	1	0.63mi
137 Eagleton Ct Palm Beach Gardens, FL	3.0	2.5	2344	$12,000	$5.12	24d	1	0.67mi
334 Brackenwood Cir Palm Beach Gardens, FL	2.0	2.0	1366	$3,950	$2.89	24d	1	0.71mi
714 Pinehurst Way Palm Beach Gardens, FL	3.0	3.0	2285	$5,800	$2.54	24d	1	0.71mi
137 Brackenwood Rd Palm Beach Gardens, FL	2.0	2.0	1366	$4,500	$3.29	24d	1	0.76mi
428 Brackenwood Ln S Palm Beach Gardens, FL	2.0	2.0	1366	$2,500	$1.83	24d	1	0.80mi
563 Brackenwood Pl Palm Beach Gardens, FL	2.0	2.0	1366	$7,000	$5.12	3d	1	0.80mi
512 Brackenwood Pl Palm Beach Gardens, FL	2.0	2.0	1366	$4,000	$2.93	24d	1	0.80mi
438 Brackenwood Ln S Palm Beach Gardens, FL	2.0	2.0	1366	$3,000	$2.20	24d	1	0.82mi
919 Augusta Pointe Dr Palm Beach Gardens, FL	3.0	3.0	2335	$8,200	$3.51	24d	1	0.82mi
168 Thornton Dr Palm Beach Gardens, FL	3.0	3.5	2447	$6,500	$2.66	24d	1	0.83mi
605 Masters Way Palm Beach Gardens, FL	3.0	3.0	1738	$17,500	$10.07	24d	1	0.85mi
632 Brackenwood Cv Palm Beach Gardens, FL	2.0	2.0	1366	$3,000	$2.20	24d	1	0.85mi
927 Augusta Pointe Dr Palm Beach Gardens, FL	4.0	3.5	2525	$7,000	$2.77	24d	1	0.86mi
616 Bracken Wood Cv Unit 616 Palm Beach Gardens, FL	2.0	2.0	1366	$7,000	$5.12	24d	1	0.87mi
605 Brackenwood Cv Palm Beach Gardens, FL	2.0	2.0	1366	$7,000	$5.12	24d	1	0.87mi
611 Brackenwood Cv Palm Beach Gardens, FL	2.0	2.0	1366	$2,800	$2.05	2d	1	0.88mi
32 Admirals Ct Palm Beach Gardens, FL	3.0	2.0	1438	$4,500	$3.13	11d	1	0.90mi
32 Admirals Ct Palm Beach Gardens, FL	3.0	2.0	1438	$3,590	$2.50	11d	1	0.90mi
77 Spyglass Way Palm Beach Gardens, FL	3.0	2.5	1471	$3,500	$2.38	24d	1	0.96mi
36 Monterey Pointe Dr Palm Beach Gardens, FL	4.0	3.5	2403	$4,500	$1.87	24d	1	0.97mi
140 Thornton Dr Palm Beach Gardens, FL	4.0	3.5	2482	$6,000	$2.42	24d	1	0.98mi
23 Lexington Ln W Unit C Palm Beach Gardens, FL	2.0	2.0	1275	$2,895	$2.27	24d	1	1.16mi
717 Windermere Way Palm Beach Gardens, FL	3.0	2.5	1869	$3,100	$1.66	3d	1	1.16mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $223 · $2,676/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $495,000 Active 51 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $495,000 Active 50 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $495,000 Active 49 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $495,000 Active 48 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $495,000 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $495,000 Active 42 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $495,000 Active 41 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $495,000 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $495,000 Active 37 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $495,000 Active 36 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $495,000 Active 35 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $495,000 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $495,000 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-04-28
    listed $495,000 Active
15. 2014-05-16
    soldstatus $325,000
16. 1996-07-11
    soldstatus $135,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,394 · $449/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,394 · $449/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $56,626
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,728
• − Property taxes: −$5,394
• − Insurance: −$2,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,530
• − Management: −$4,530
• − HOA: −$2,676
• − Depreciation: −$14,400
• Taxable loss: −$5,107
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,226
• After-tax cash flow: $4,265/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Palm Beach
• NCES district ID: 1201500
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $53,943
• Composite: 42.72/100
• National rank: #3160
• State rank: #34 of 73 in FL

Livability — Palm Beach Gardens

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #464
• US rank: #8366

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Palm Beach Gardens, FL
• County: Palm Beach County · 1,438,312 people
• City population: 96,294
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 43,676
• Household income: $125,497
• Rent vs Own: 23.3% rent · 76.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1339.0

Population outlook (Palm Beach County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,637,487 people
• By 2030: 1,743,255 · +6.5%
• By 2040: 1,948,712 · +19.0%
• By 2050: 2,132,979 · +30.3%
• By 2075: 2,530,027 · +54.5%
• By 2100: 2,706,979 · +65.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 9% Black 5% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 4% Scotch-Irish 4%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 8% German/W. Germanic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Palm Beach

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.0% · R 49.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.1pp toward R · 2008: 22.9pp · 2024: 0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.8 2020: D+12.8 2016: D+15.3 2012: D+17.0 2008: D+22.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -172.79%
• Current HPI: 361.1997
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.00%
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+266.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Listed $495,000 Beaches MLS
• 2014-05-16 Sold (Public Records) $325,000 Public Records
• 1996-07-11 Sold (Public Records) $135,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,394 · +1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.