509 California Ave · Olean, MO 65064

$99,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,295 sqft · Other · 45 Days on market

Built 1902 4.20 ac lot $43/sqft · 76% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.2/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• Appreciation +6.8/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

ULTIMATE RURAL FREEDOM WITH A HEAD START. Tucked away just outside the Olean city limits, this 4-acre unrestricted parcel offers the perfect foundation for your country homestead or next investment. While the vintage farmhouse on-site holds little financial value, it provides a massive logistical advantage: established water, sewer, and electric are already hooked up to the property, saving you thousands in utility installation costs. The land also features a classic barn, ready for your tools, livestock, or conversion projects. With absolutely no restrictions, your imagination is the only limit. Use the existing footprint to build your dream custom home, barndominium, or place a manufactured home. This is a rare opportunity to secure private acreage with infrastructure already in place. Bring your builder and your vision.

Key facts

• 4.2 acre lot
• Garage
• Listed 44 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Detached single-family residence; Two levels / 2 stories
• Construction: Wood siding construction
• Exterior features: Asphalt paved road access; Lot dimensions approximately 249 x 100 x 249 x 103; 4.2-acre lot

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Wood stove heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: Crawl space basement; Wood stove heating

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $315 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $96k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#439 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, housing F.
• Eldon R-I (town): math 46% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #52 of 324 in MO (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: South Elem. (math 42% / reading 42%, grade F, #481 of 1,115 statewide, top 46%, 566 students, 50% FRL); Eldon Middle (math 45% / reading 56%, grade C, #64 of 391 statewide, top 17%, 423 students, 49% FRL); Eldon High (math 37% / reading 62%, grade D, #124 of 521 statewide, top 28%, 584 students, 40% FRL).
• Market conditions: 2 active listings in the ZIP; 88 units permitted in Miller County in 2024 (31 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($684 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.7% local appreciation)).
• Miller County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (3.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($96k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1902 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $96,030 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1902 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.65%
• DSCR: 1.61
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $414,951
• List price: $99,000
• Delta: -76.14%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.68% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.28×
• Total profit: $35,592
• Equity at exit: $48,349

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.40×
• Total profit: $94,205
• Equity at exit: $77,642

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65064

• Home prices YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 2
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,181 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$57 /mo · $683/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$248
• Net cashflow: $315

Break-even live

Break-even rent $781

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $371	-5% $343	+0% $315	+5% $287	+10% $259
Rent	-10% $222	-5% $269	+0% $315	+5% $362	+10% $409
Rate	-1.0pp $365	-0.5pp $341	base $315	+0.5pp $290	+1.0pp $264

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $99,000 Active 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $99,000 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,000 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,000 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,000 Active 40 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,000 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,000 Active 37 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $99,000 Active 36 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,000 Active 33 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $99,000 Active 32 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,000 Active 31 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,000 Active 30 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $99,000 Active 27 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,000 Active 26 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,000 Active 25 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,000 Active 24 DOM
17. 2026-05-18
    listed $99,000 Active 834-char remark

    Show marketing remark (834 chars)

    ULTIMATE RURAL FREEDOM WITH A HEAD START. Tucked away just outside the Olean city limits, this 4-acre unrestricted parcel offers the perfect foundation for your country homestead or next investment. While the vintage farmhouse on-site holds little financial value, it provides a massive logistical advantage: established water, sewer, and electric are already hooked up to the property, saving you thousands in utility installation costs. The land also features a classic barn, ready for your tools, livestock, or conversion projects. With absolutely no restrictions, your imagination is the only limit. Use the existing footprint to build your dream custom home, barndominium, or place a manufactured home. This is a rare opportunity to secure private acreage with infrastructure already in place. Bring your builder and your vision.

18. 2026-05-07
    listed $99,000 Active 834-char remark
19. 2016-12-21
    listed $64,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $683 · $57/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $960 · $80/mo
• Expected delta: +$278/yr (+$23/mo · 40.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,167
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$683
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,133
• − Management: −$1,133
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $2,297
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$551
• After-tax cash flow: $3,233/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Eldon R-I
• NCES district ID: 2911340
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $34,415
• Composite: 41.27/100
• National rank: #3521
• State rank: #52 of 324 in MO

Livability — Olean

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #439
• US rank: #17986

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Olean, MO
• Population (ZIP): 774

Population outlook (Miller County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 25,396 people
• By 2030: 25,344 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 24,740 · -2.6%
• By 2050: 23,415 · -7.8%
• By 2075: 19,426 · -23.5%
• By 2100: 13,742 · -45.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (100%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 100%
• Common ancestry: Danish 2% Slovak 1%
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · German/W. Germanic 4% Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Miller

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+67.3) · D 15.9% · R 83.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.5pp toward R · 2008: -36.8pp · 2024: -67.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+67.3 2020: R+65.7 2016: R+66.0 2012: R+49.4 2008: R+36.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.68%
• Current HPI: 114.6051
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+54.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $99,000 LOBR
• 2026-05-07 Listed $99,000 LOBR
• 2016-12-21 Listed $64,000 LOBR

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $683 · +9.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.