12830 Lake Tree Ln · Meadow Oaks, FL 34669

$169,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1981 7,000 sqft lot Est $246k · 31% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.4/10.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Fixer upper. Cash only. As is. Build your own EQUITY here. One elderly owner, so maintenance has been deferred. Needs work, but worth it. No flood zone. Beautiful shade trees. There is so much potential in this sweet little 2 bedroom, 2 bath home. Walkable neighborhood. Centrally located. Driving distance to beaches, shopping, golf, entertainment , and major tourist destinations. No rental or lease restrictions.

Key facts

• 7,000 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1981

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Homestead exemption indicated; Lot size roughly 0.16 acre (0 to less than 1/4 acre)
• HOA & community: No secondary association indicated; Community allows golf carts; Sidewalks and street lights; Pets allowed (cats and dogs)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car); Parking pad
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Public water connected; Public sewer connected; Broadband/high-speed internet available
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; One story; Faces west; Fixer condition; PUD zoning
• Construction: Stucco and frame construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on public maintained paved road
• Exterior features: Lighting; Sidewalk

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Thermostat; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $169k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $476 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $169k).
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 4.6% in Meadow Oaks — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#794 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Hudson High School (math 45% / reading 40%, grade F, #264 of 667 statewide, top 41%, 1,387 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 48% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 299 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $169,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.06%
• DSCR: 1.54
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $246,400
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12830 Lake Tree Ln	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,120 (0%)	1mo	$145,000	$129	100
12412 Hollybrook Ln	0.42mi	2/2.0	1,169 (+4%)	7mo	$255,000	$218	67
12920 Walnut Tree Ln	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,286 (+15%)	6mo	$290,000	$226	66
13137 Greenview Ct	0.60mi	2/2.0	1,201 (+7%)	2mo	$235,000	$196	58
13335 Norman Cir	0.65mi	2/2.0	1,057 (-6%)	4mo	$175,000	$166	56
12260 Great Basin Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,223 (+9%)	0mo	$271,490	$222	53
12284 Great Basin Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,223 (+9%)	1mo	$285,990	$234	52
12308 Great Basin Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,223 (+9%)	1mo	$272,000	$222	51
12192 Isle Royale Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,223 (+9%)	0mo	$259,990	$213	50
12800 Kellywood Cir	0.62mi	2/2.0	1,002 (-10%)	6mo	$215,000	$215	49
12205 Isle Royale Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,223 (+9%)	2mo	$270,000	$221	48
12836 Kellywood Cir	0.67mi	3/2.0 (+1)	976 (-13%)	3mo	$215,000	$220	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.06×
• Total profit: $2,845
• Equity at exit: $25,198

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.87×
• Total profit: $41,221
• Equity at exit: $14,612

Cash invested: $47,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34669

• Home prices YoY: -24.1%
• Active inventory: 299
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,887 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax from tax record: −$58 /mo · $701/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$396
• Net cashflow: $476

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,285

Max offer price $169,000

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $571	-5% $523	+0% $476	+5% $428	+10% $380
Rent	-10% $327	-5% $401	+0% $476	+5% $550	+10% $625
Rate	-1.0pp $561	-0.5pp $519	base $476	+0.5pp $432	+1.0pp $387

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,250
• Closing costs: $5,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13341 Tropical Breeze Way Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1455	$2,000	$1.37	5d	1	0.64mi
12706 White Bluff Rd Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1360	$1,870	$1.38	2d	1	1.09mi
12405 Shearwater Dr Unit 12405 New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,600	$1.60	3d	1	1.12mi
11550 Baywood Meadows Dr #7 New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	1008	$1,495	$1.48	24d	1	1.38mi
12135 Environmental Dr #4 New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1239	$1,800	$1.45	24d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-13
   status Active
3. 2026-05-07
   status Pending
4. 2026-05-05
   listed $169,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $701 · $58/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,403 · $117/mo
• Expected delta: +$701/yr (+$58/mo · 100.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,645
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,467
• − Property taxes: −$701
• − Insurance: −$845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,812
• − Management: −$1,812
• − Depreciation: −$4,916
• Taxable income: $3,092
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$742
• After-tax cash flow: $4,966/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Meadow Oaks

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #794
• US rank: #18203

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Meadow Oaks, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 14,618
• Household income: $58,638
• Rent vs Own: 11.9% rent · 88.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 176.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 6% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 7% Vietnamese 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.24%
• Current HPI: 321.5862
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-13 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-07 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-05 Listed $169,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $701 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.