3888 River Rd · Cincinnati, OH 45204

$55,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 738 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 49 Days on market

Built 1880 0.39 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Second Dwelling on Property Included. Second Dwelling is 783 SqFt. with 2 BD 1BA. Ready for Rehab!

Key facts

• 0.39 acre lot
• Built 1880
• Listed 49 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot is approximately 0.387 acre (about 119.4 x 124); Second floor area recorded separately
• HOA & community: No HOA

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family home; Two levels; Poured foundation
• Construction: Built with brick construction
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Brick exterior; Windows with unspecified/other features; Residential zoning

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen present (details not specified)
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms, all on the first level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms and one half bathroom; Primary bathroom listed as 'Other' (unspecified features)
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Gas water heating
• Interior features: Full basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $55k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $537 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $53k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.5% vs local median 3.9% in Cincinnati — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#130 in OH, #1,856 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment D, crime F.
• Cincinnati Public Schools (urban): math 25% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #581 of 656 in OH (top 89%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 33 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 801 units permitted in Hamilton County in 2024 (190 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,398/mo this rent would consume 54% of the median local household income ($31k/yr) (locally 487% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($53k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $22k; list at $55k implies a 150% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.1% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1880 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $53,350 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1880 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.54% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 47.01%
• DSCR: 3.09
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 38.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.65×
• Total profit: $25,416
• Equity at exit: $8,201

10-year hold

• IRR: 45.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.33×
• Total profit: $66,714
• Equity at exit: $4,755

Cash invested: $15,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45204

• Home prices YoY: -21.2%
• Active inventory: 33
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,398 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax from tax record: −$190 /mo · $2,276/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$294
• Net cashflow: $537

Break-even live

Break-even rent $718

Max offer price $55,000

Occupancy floor 57%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,750
• Closing costs: $1,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5039 Delhi Rd Cincinnati, OH	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	952	$1,895	$1.99	1d	10	1.25mi
3338 Hillside Ave Cincinnati, OH	1.0–2.0	1.0	725	$995	$1.37	23d	1	1.28mi
466 Pedretti Ave Unit 472-10 Cincinnati, OH	2.0	1.0	750	$1,100	$1.47	23d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $55,000 Active 49 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $55,000 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $55,000 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $55,000 Active 46 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $55,000 Active 44 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $55,000 Active 43 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $55,000 Active 40 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $55,000 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $55,000 Active 38 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $55,000 Active 34 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $55,000 Active 33 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $55,000 Active 32 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $55,000 Active 31 DOM
14. 2026-04-30
    listed $65,000 Active
15. 2016-04-28
    soldstatus $22,000 Sold 98-char remark

    Show marketing remark (98 chars)

    Second Dwelling on Property Included. Second Dwelling is 783 SqFt. with 2 BD 1BA. Ready for Rehab!

16. 2016-04-27
    historical Accept Backup Offers 98-char remark

    Show marketing remark (98 chars)

    Second Dwelling on Property Included. Second Dwelling is 783 SqFt. with 2 BD 1BA. Ready for Rehab!

17. 2016-03-04
    listed $29,900 Active 98-char remark

    Show marketing remark (98 chars)

    Second Dwelling on Property Included. Second Dwelling is 783 SqFt. with 2 BD 1BA. Ready for Rehab!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,276 · $190/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,276 · $190/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (shaded) · 98% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,775
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,081
• − Property taxes: −$2,276
• − Insurance: −$1,072
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,342
• − Management: −$1,342
• − Depreciation: −$1,600
• Taxable income: $6,061
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,455
• After-tax cash flow: $4,988/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cincinnati Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3904375
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $35,743
• Composite: 25.21/100
• National rank: #7508
• State rank: #581 of 656 in OH

Livability — Cincinnati

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #130
• US rank: #1856

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cincinnati, OH
• County: Hamilton County · 701,295 people
• City population: 505,555
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 8,412
• Household income: $31,236
• Rent vs Own: 56.3% rent · 43.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 487.0

Population outlook (Hamilton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 826,054 people
• By 2030: 830,947 · +0.6%
• By 2040: 832,319 · +0.8%
• By 2050: 822,428 · -0.4%
• By 2075: 788,688 · -4.5%
• By 2100: 710,674 · -14.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Black 41% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hamilton

• 2024 margin: D (+14.9) · D 57.0% · R 42.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: 7.0pp · 2024: 14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+14.9 2020: D+15.9 2016: D+9.5 2012: D+4.9 2008: D+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -43.12%
• Current HPI: 160.5953
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+117.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Listed $65,000 Cincy MLS
• 2016-04-28 Sold (MLS) $22,000 Cincy MLS
• 2016-04-27 Contingent — Cincy MLS
• 2016-03-04 Listed $29,900 Cincy MLS

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,276 · -1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.