8915 Wilkensen Rd SE Unit 9A · North Yelm, WA 98597

$185,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,774 sqft · Manufactured public records · 48 Days on market

Built 2000 6,860 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautifully updated home in North Yelm featuring a bright, open-concept layout and modern finishes throughout. The spacious kitchen offers crisp white cabinetry, quartz-style countertops, a large center island, and stainless steel appliances, flowing seamlessly into the dining and living areas with abundant natural light and durable wood-style flooring. The home includes generously sized bedrooms and an upgraded primary bathroom highlighted by a freestanding soaking tub and separate shower, creating a subtle spa-like feel. A dedicated in-home laundry space and fresh, neutral tones throughout add to the home’s clean, move-in-ready appeal. Outside, enjoy a large, level yard with room to

Key facts

• Large level yard
• Welcoming front deck
• Spacious kitchen

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• FREESTANDING SOAKING TUB
• LARGE LEVEL YARD
• WELCOMING FRONT DECK
• QUIET LOT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Buyer broker compensation: 2.5%
• Financial info: Listing terms: Cash
• HOA & community: Located in a park with 31 homes; Park name: Yelm MHP & Storage; Land lease: $895/month

Exterior

• Parking: 2 open/uncovered parking spaces
• Utilities: Community water (included in park rent); Sewer included in park rent; Puget Sound Energy power; Comcast/Xfinity internet
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; One story; Manufactured house; Slab foundation
• Construction: Wood construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Wood exterior; Landscaped; Has a view

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stove/Range
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 2 bathtubs; 2 showers
• Heating & cooling: High-efficiency heating (90%+); No central cooling
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Dryer; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stove/Range; Washer; Double pane windows; Jetted/soaking tub; Landscaped
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $186k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $186k).
• Recommended offer: $180k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.0% vs local median 4.4% in North Yelm — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#277 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A, crime B; Watch: health & safety C-, commute D+, schools F.
• Yelm School District (rural): math 48% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #108 of 291 in WA (top 37%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.8%/yr); 431 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,222 units permitted in Thurston County in 2024 (508 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($92k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Thurston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.8% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($180k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $180,410 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.03%
• DSCR: 2.07
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $432,856
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8844 Thuja Ave SE	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,738 (-2%)	6mo	$449,000	$258	71
17011 Wisteria Ct SE	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,792 (+1%)	0mo	$395,000	$220	66
8905 Canal Rd SE	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,998 (+13%)	0mo	$500,000	$250	65
8911 Pepperidge Ln	0.13mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,904 (+7%)	14mo	$350,000	$184	65
16948 Heather Ln SE	0.48mi	3/3.0	1,746 (-2%)	12mo	$330,000	$189	61
17102 Heather Ln SE	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,766 (-0%)	10mo	$399,950	$226	59
8939 Crystal Springs Ln SE	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,776 (+0%)	16mo	$432,600	$244	55
17039 Heather Ln SE	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,728 (-3%)	20mo	$420,000	$243	44
16812 Nandina Ct SE	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,536 (-13%)	12mo	$324,950	$212	39
8633 Cascara Ct	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,512 (-15%)	14mo	$430,000	$284	36
8646 SE Sequoia Ct	0.33mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,512 (-15%)	23mo	$413,000	$273	36
9333 Bridge Rd SE	0.65mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,568 (-12%)	24mo	$475,000	$303	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.85×
• Total profit: $44,018
• Equity at exit: $27,732

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.02×
• Total profit: $157,484
• Equity at exit: $16,081

Cash invested: $52,077 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98597

• Rents YoY: 5.8%
• Active inventory: 431
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,716 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$975
• Tax from tax record: −$50 /mo · $594/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$570
• Net cashflow: $1,043

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,395

Max offer price $185,990

Occupancy floor 57%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,498
• Closing costs: $5,580
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16207 83rd Ct SE Yelm, WA	3.0	1.5	1534	$2,400	$1.56	20d	1	0.53mi
15717 View Dr SE Yelm, WA	4.0	2.5	2126	$2,650	$1.25	13d	1	0.73mi
15127 Iverson Loop SE Yelm, WA	3.0	2.5	1824	$2,900	$1.59	21d	1	1.31mi
15348 Berry Valley Dr SE Yelm, WA	3.0	2.0	1250	$2,150	$1.72	14d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $185,990 Active 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $185,990 Active 47 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $185,990 Active 46 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $185,990 Active 45 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $185,990 Active 43 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $185,990 Active 42 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $185,990 Active 40 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $185,990 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $185,990 Active 38 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $185,990 Active 37 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $185,990 Active 32 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $185,990 Active 31 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $185,990 Active 30 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $185,990 Active 29 DOM
15. 2026-05-01
    listed $185,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $594 · $50/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,823 · $152/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,229/yr (+$102/mo · 206.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥87°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,586
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,418
• − Property taxes: −$594
• − Insurance: −$930
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,607
• − Management: −$2,607
• − Depreciation: −$5,411
• Taxable income: $10,019
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,405
• After-tax cash flow: $10,110/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Yelm School District
• NCES district ID: 5310140
• Math proficiency: 48% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $58,328
• Composite: 48.34/100
• National rank: #4685
• State rank: #108 of 291 in WA

Livability — North Yelm

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #277
• US rank: #9538

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D+ Cost of living A Crime B Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: North Yelm, WA
• County: Thurston County · 269,345 people
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• Population (ZIP): 26,669
• Household income: $92,219
• Rent vs Own: 21.8% rent · 78.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 259.0

Population outlook (Thurston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 308,239 people
• By 2030: 326,483 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 359,890 · +16.8%
• By 2050: 391,800 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 468,024 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 519,890 · +68.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 3% Pacific Islander 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 5% Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Thurston

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.4) · D 58.5% · R 38.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.3pp toward R · 2008: 21.7pp · 2024: 20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.4 2020: D+18.6 2016: D+15.4 2012: D+19.0 2008: D+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -192.07%
• Current HPI: 326.4361
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.78%
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Listed $185,990 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+0.0%/yr

Latest (2021): $594 · -7.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.