4547 Hickory Trl · Redding, CA 96003

$140,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,560 sqft · Manufactured public records · 26 Days on market

Built 2002 $90/sqft · 49% above area Est $94k · 49% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.7/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Meticulously maintained 3-bedroom, 2 baths plus den manufactured home that is located in Los Robles Estates, a beautiful 55+ senior community. The home features a split floor plan, vaulted ceilings, large kitchen with island and abundant counter and cabinet space. The primary bedroom is also very spacious and has a walk-in closet. The home sits on a corner lot with guest parking right in front which is so coinvent for family and friends' visits. The exterior was painted a year ago and a new roof was installed in 2020. There is a large shed for extra storge on the patio and there is fencing around the back making it perfect for any fury friends. If you're looking for easy-breezy carefree liv

Key facts

• Guest parking
• Walk-in closet
• Split floor plan

Tags

• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• LARGE KITCHEN
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• CORNER LOT
• GUEST PARKING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Located in Los Robles mobile home park

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport for 1 vehicle; Guest parking available
• Home design: Manufactured home located in a park; Mobile home; Model: United States
• Construction: Lap siding exterior; Composition roof; Concrete skirting; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Exterior features: Partial fencing; Greenbelt nearby; Asphalt road access; Has a view

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher, Microwave, Refrigerator
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring; Carpet flooring
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Has heating
• Interior features: Dishwasher, Dryer, Microwave, Refrigerator, Washer; Fireplace in living room (free‑standing)
• Laundry & utility: Washer and Dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $547 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $138k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.0% vs local median 3.3% in Redding — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#106 in CA, #3,726 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, cost of living F.
• Gateway Unified (suburban): math 25% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #355 of 517 in CA (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.0%/yr); 393 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 246 units permitted in Shasta County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Shasta County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($138k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $137,900 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.74%
• DSCR: 1.74
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $94,273
• List price: $140,000
• Delta: 48.50%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
899 Tuberose Trl	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,560 (0%)	5mo	$99,180	$64	87
4719 Maple Trl	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,520 (-3%)	3mo	$181,500	$119	84
1401 Menomenee Ln #281	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,680 (+8%)	5mo	$71,000	$42	76
4532 Hardwood Blvd #195	0.32mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,600 (+3%)	3mo	$76,000	$48	73
4649 Underwood Dr #257	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,536 (-2%)	4mo	$75,000	$49	72
1350 Aztec Path #229	0.26mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,456 (-7%)	6mo	$95,000	$65	67
470 Brushwood Dr #139	0.36mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,632 (+5%)	6mo	$98,000	$60	66
4555 Underwood Dr	0.46mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-8%)	1mo	$99,000	$69	60
323 Sapwood Dr Sp# 279 Dr	0.43mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-8%)	4mo	$89,000	$62	58
301 Sapwood Dr #280	0.44mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-8%)	4mo	$65,900	$46	58
360 Sapwood Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,776 (+14%)	5mo	$12,000	$7	54
458 Balsawood Dr	0.39mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-14%)	1mo	$60,000	$45	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.46×
• Total profit: $18,093
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.21×
• Total profit: $86,545
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96003

• Rents YoY: 6.0%
• Active inventory: 393
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,917 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$175 /mo · $2,100/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$403
• Net cashflow: $547

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,225

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $644	-5% $595	+0% $547	+5% $499	+10% $450
Rent	-10% $395	-5% $471	+0% $547	+5% $623	+10% $698
Rate	-1.0pp $617	-0.5pp $582	base $547	+0.5pp $511	+1.0pp $474

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4433 White River Dr Redding, CA	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,500	$1.36	44d	1	0.12mi
701 Redwood Blvd Redding, CA	2.0	1.5–2.5	1163	$1,820	$1.56	14d	1	0.40mi
636 Lake Blvd Redding, CA	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	986	$2,010	$2.04	14d	8	0.60mi
5391 Stonethrow Ct Redding, CA	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,895	$1.72	44d	1	0.79mi
3465 Magnums Way Apt 2 Redding, CA	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,775	$1.64	44d	1	1.04mi
1424 Calexico Dr Redding, CA	4.0	3.0	2150	$2,949	$1.37	14d	1	1.09mi
6053 Fallworth Dr Redding, CA	3.0	2.0	1622	$2,650	$1.63	14d	1	1.41mi
6073 Fallworth Dr Redding, CA	3.0	2.0	1622	$2,650	$1.63	14d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-31
   status $140,000 Pending 26 DOM
2. 2026-05-30
   days on market $140,000 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-05-04
   listed $140,000 Active 737-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 37 unhealthy d/yr today · 40 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,003
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$2,100
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,840
• − Management: −$1,840
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable income: $4,608
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,106
• After-tax cash flow: $5,457/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gateway Unified
• NCES district ID: 0614950
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $41,888
• Composite: 25.39/100
• National rank: #7465
• State rank: #355 of 517 in CA

Livability — Redding

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #106
• US rank: #3726

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Redding, CA
• County: Shasta County · 147,641 people
• City population: 112,523
• Metro: Redding, CA
• Population (ZIP): 44,923
• Household income: $72,445
• Rent vs Own: 41.5% rent · 58.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1668.0

Population outlook (Shasta County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,231 people
• By 2030: 176,953 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 169,982 · -5.2%
• By 2050: 162,547 · -9.3%
• By 2075: 145,649 · -18.7%
• By 2100: 123,025 · -31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10% Asian 4% Native American 1% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shasta

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.5) · D 30.5% · R 67.0% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.7pp toward R · 2008: -25.8pp · 2024: -36.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.5 2020: R+33.1 2016: R+37.4 2012: R+30.3 2008: R+25.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -181.66%
• Current HPI: 152.3069
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.98%
• Metro: Redding, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Pending — SAOR
• 2026-05-04 Listed $140,000 SAOR

Property tax history

-1.7%/yr

Latest (2020): $272 · +1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.