3526 Ellerslie Ave · Baltimore, MD 21218

$139,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · Townhouse public records · 49 Days on market

Built 1920 1,306 sqft lot Est $138k · at est. ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.8/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.1/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Interior Rowhome with Spacious Room Sizes, Wood Floors, Main Level 1/2 Bath and Unfinished Basement. Property being sold As Is. Purchaser to verify Real Estate Taxes, HOA, and Ground Rent - Seller will not redeem Ground Rent. Cash Offers Require 10% EMD or $1000 minimum, whichever is greater and all Financed Offers Require 1% EMD or $1000 minimum, whichever is greater. Purchaser can use whatever title company they prefer, but purchaser's title must coordinate with seller's title (Vendor Connect LLC). Bank Addendum come after offer acceptance. The Seller will not accept blind offers or escalation clauses. The seller is not responsible for utilities. If buyer needs utilities on for inspection

Key facts

• Built 1920
• Listed 49 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $512 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $135k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.7% vs local median 6.0% in Baltimore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in MD, #3,396 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Baltimore City Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #24 of 24 in MD (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 325 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 52% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,273 units permitted in Baltimore city in 2024 (1,104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $964 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.6% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($135k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $135,315 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.72%
• DSCR: 1.70
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $138,240
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
604 E 35th St E	0.22mi	3/1.0	1,260 (-2%)	1mo	$94,000	$75	87
646 E 37th St	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,284 (+0%)	0mo	$94,000	$73	86
3633 Elkader Rd	0.11mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,304 (+2%)	1mo	$265,000	$203	84
515 E 35th St	0.26mi	3/1.5	1,260 (-2%)	1mo	$135,999	$108	83
3807 Elkader Rd	0.20mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,352 (+6%)	0mo	$235,000	$174	72
609 Melville Ave	0.18mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,364 (+7%)	1mo	$120,000	$88	70
3825 Elkader Rd	0.23mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,352 (+6%)	1mo	$275,000	$203	70
608 Chestnut Hill Ave	0.24mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,156 (-10%)	1mo	$73,000	$63	67
1632 E 31st St	0.73mi	3/1.0	1,280 (0%)	0mo	$94,500	$74	66
3405 Greenway #302	0.70mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,221 (-5%)	1mo	$265,000	$217	52
2956 Greenmount Ave	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,130 (-12%)	1mo	$209,395	$185	49
616 E 30th St	0.53mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,092 (-15%)	1mo	$65,000	$60	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.63% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $7,467
• Equity at exit: $20,800

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.98×
• Total profit: $38,424
• Equity at exit: $12,061

Cash invested: $39,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Baltimore: 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+58

Just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21218

• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 325
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,872 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$732
• Tax from tax record: −$177 /mo · $2,128/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$393
• Net cashflow: $512

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,224

Max offer price $139,500

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,875
• Closing costs: $4,185
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
721 E 36th St Unit Na Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1156	$1,650	$1.43	43d	1	0.08mi
724 E 35th St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1368	$2,000	$1.46	14d	1	0.11mi
1040 E 33rd St Baltimore, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	775	$1,525	$1.97	2d	10	0.20mi
612 Chestnut Hill Ave Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	900	$1,999	$2.22	43d	1	0.21mi
3721 Ellerslie Ave Baltimore, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	894	$1,603	$1.79	1d	1	0.21mi
3529 Greenmount Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1316	$1,575	$1.20	43d	1	0.28mi
3222 Ellerslie Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	1.5	1550	$1,950	$1.26	43d	1	0.30mi
616 Montpelier St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1150	$1,750	$1.52	10d	1	0.43mi
348 E University Pkwy Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1809	$2,400	$1.33	43d	1	0.45mi
936 Montpelier St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1260	$1,450	$1.15	23d	1	0.50mi
3026 Mathews St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	996	$1,350	$1.36	14d	1	0.50mi
3012 Mathews St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	996	$1,100	$1.10	17d	1	0.52mi
1504 Upshire Rd Unit 1E Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,400	$1.40	43d	1	0.53mi
513 E 41st St Baltimore, MD	4.0	1.5	1620	$1,900	$1.17	43d	1	0.55mi
4033 Greenmount Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.5	1860	$2,550	$1.37	23d	1	0.56mi
1502 Fernley Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1350	$2,800	$2.07	43d	1	0.56mi
3221 Guilford Ave Apt A Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1025	$2,925	$2.85	17d	1	0.57mi
3213 The Alameda Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1708	$1,295	$0.76	3d	1	0.59mi
3601 Greenway #101 Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1470	$2,700	$1.84	3d	1	0.60mi
3501 Saint Paul St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0–2.5	916	$2,700	$2.95	1d	172	0.64mi
815 Gilrubin Ct Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	900	$1,695	$1.88	43d	1	0.66mi
812 Nat Ct Apt 12 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	900	$1,295	$1.44	43d	1	0.66mi
720 Springfield Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1160	$2,000	$1.72	43d	1	0.66mi
1 E University Pkwy Baltimore, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1045	$2,500	$2.39	4d	2	0.69mi
4303 York Rd #3 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1680	$1,400	$0.83	43d	1	0.69mi
3201 Saint Paul St Baltimore, MD	1.0–2.0	1.5–2.0	1532	$3,200	$2.09	2d	1	0.70mi
436 Ilchester Ave Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1002	$1,350	$1.35	43d	1	0.70mi
706 E 43rd St Baltimore, MD	4.0	1.5	1596	$1,899	$1.19	1d	1	0.71mi
519 E 28th St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,000	$1.33	4d	1	0.73mi
1702 E 32nd St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1344	$2,300	$1.71	43d	1	0.74mi
1539 Abbotston St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1800	$1,995	$1.11	43d	1	0.75mi
402 E 28th St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1436	$2,200	$1.53	43d	1	0.76mi
1519 E 28th St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,350	$1.23	43d	1	0.78mi
1539 Ralworth Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1580	$1,950	$1.23	14d	1	0.82mi
4407 Old York Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1356	$1,574	$1.16	20d	1	0.84mi
4407 Old York Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1356	$1,574	$1.16	43d	1	0.84mi
2606 Cecil Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.5	1200	$1,500	$1.25	43d	1	0.84mi
450 E Lorraine Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1344	$1,695	$1.26	43d	1	0.87mi
3811 Canterbury Rd Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0–2.0	975	$2,495	$2.56	12d	5	0.88mi
428 E Lorraine Ave Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1344	$1,875	$1.40	43d	1	0.88mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2025-05-20
   status Pending
2. 2025-05-14
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2025-05-08
   price $139,500
4. 2025-04-11
   price $147,250
5. 2025-04-10
   status Active
6. 2025-02-09
   status Pending
7. 2025-01-17
   historical Active Under Contract
8. 2025-01-02
   listed $155,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,128 · $177/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,128 · $177/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,461
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,814
• − Property taxes: −$2,128
• − Insurance: −$698
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,797
• − Management: −$1,797
• − Depreciation: −$4,058
• Taxable income: $4,169
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,001
• After-tax cash flow: $5,139/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore City Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400090
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,108
• Composite: 10.08/100
• National rank: #9805
• State rank: #24 of 24 in MD

Livability — Baltimore

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3396

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baltimore, MD
• County: Baltimore City · 558,601 people
• City population: 588,727
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 44,014
• Household income: $62,488
• Rent vs Own: 51.9% rent · 48.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 2564.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 624,249 people
• By 2030: 621,541 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 609,756 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 597,249 · -4.3%
• By 2075: 552,236 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 513,934 · -17.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 60% White 26% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+73.0) · D 85.2% · R 12.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 75.5pp · 2024: 73.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+73.0 2020: D+76.6 2016: D+74.6 2012: D+76.4 2008: D+75.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -463.14%
• Current HPI: 292.3986
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.63%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

-10.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2025-05-20 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-05-14 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-05-08 Price Changed $139,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-04-11 Price Changed $147,250 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-04-10 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-02-09 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-01-17 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-01-02 Listed $155,000 BRIGHT MLS