4882 Lancaster Dr NE #124 · Hayesville, OR 97305

$68,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured public records · 80 Days on market

Built 1978 $59/sqft · 20% above area Est $57k · 20% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

2 bedroom 2 bath in 55 and over park. Well cared for with a new roof (2025); new heat pump, some updated windows, updated kitchen, new dishwasher. Get in before spring and watch the yard transform. Raised beds with strawberries. Peonies, iris, clematis, daffodils, a beautiful burning bush and more. Covered deck for year round enjoyment, carport with shed storage.

Key facts

• Covered deck
• New heat pump
• Raised beds

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• NEW HEAT PUMP
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• NEW DISHWASHER
• RAISED BEDS
• COVERED DECK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $68k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $929 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $68k).
• Recommended offer: $64k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 22.7% vs local median 3.1% in Hayesville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#63 in OR, #2,298 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F.
• Salem-Keizer SD 24J (urban): math 34% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #103 of 183 in OR (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 175 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,591 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $470 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($64k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $12k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $63,920 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.51% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 58.57%
• DSCR: 3.61
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $56,516
• List price: $68,000
• Delta: 20.32%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5422 Portland Rd NE #56	0.54mi	2/2.0	1,152 (0%)	3mo	$38,500	$33	72
4783 38th Ave NE #17	0.38mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,196 (+4%)	5mo	$125,000	$105	67
4293 Lemon St NE	0.69mi	2/2.0	1,152 (0%)	3mo	$60,000	$52	65
5422 Portland Rd NE #33	0.54mi	2/2.0	1,080 (-6%)	2mo	$60,000	$56	63
4230 Hazelgreen Rd NE #52	0.67mi	2/2.0	1,200 (+4%)	3mo	$32,000	$27	60
5422 Portland Rd NE #54	0.54mi	2/2.0	1,056 (-8%)	3mo	$28,000	$27	59
4351 NE Larch Loop	0.63mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,152 (0%)	9mo	$58,400	$51	58
5422 Portland Rd #120	0.54mi	2/2.0	1,248 (+8%)	8mo	$57,500	$46	54
5422 Portland Rd NE #143	0.54mi	2/2.0	1,248 (+8%)	8mo	$49,900	$40	54
5422 Portland Rd NE #37	0.54mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (+12%)	4mo	$39,000	$30	45
5422 Portland Rd NE Unit 22	0.54mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (+12%)	7mo	$122,000	$94	43
5174 Copper Crk #153	0.52mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,000 (-13%)	9mo	$95,000	$95	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 57.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.53×
• Total profit: $48,159
• Equity at exit: $10,139

10-year hold

• IRR: 62.1%
• Equity multiple: 7.20×
• Total profit: $118,120
• Equity at exit: $5,879

Cash invested: $19,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97305

• Active inventory: 175
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,705 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$357
• Tax from tax record: −$33 /mo · $395/yr
• Insurance: −$28
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$358
• Net cashflow: $929

Break-even live

Break-even rent $529

Max offer price $68,000

Occupancy floor 40%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,000
• Closing costs: $2,040
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 34 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4115 Geranium Loop NE Salem, OR	3.0	2.5	1316	$2,250	$1.71	13d	1	0.08mi
4828 Lancaster Dr NE Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	832	$1,435	$1.72	13d	5	0.17mi
4040 Hayesville Dr NE Salem, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	927	$1,695	$1.83	13d	25	0.36mi
4624 Lancaster Dr NE Salem, OR	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	963	$1,495	$1.55	13d	10	0.49mi
5115 Countryside St NE Salem, OR	3.0	1.0–2.0	876	$1,958	$2.23	13d	20	0.61mi
4823 Settlers Dr NE Salem, OR	3.0	2.0	1228	$2,395	$1.95	43d	1	0.85mi
4007 Iberis St NE Unit 4007 Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	850	$1,195	$1.41	43d	1	0.87mi
3942 Ward Dr NE Salem, OR	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	775	$1,550	$2.00	43d	3	0.89mi
4334 Ward Pl NE Unit 1 Salem, OR	3.0	1.5	1250	$1,775	$1.42	43d	1	0.89mi
3875 Iberis St NE Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	707	$1,295	$1.83	23d	1	0.92mi
4375 Falcon View Way NE Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	842	$1,395	$1.66	43d	1	0.92mi
3813 Iberis St NE Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	868	$1,295	$1.49	13d	1	0.94mi
3807 Iberis St NE Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	868	$1,295	$1.49	23d	1	0.94mi
4370 Fisher Rd NE Unit 203 Salem, OR	2.0	2.0	1092	$1,545	$1.41	13d	1	0.96mi
3792 Iberis St NE Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	868	$1,145	$1.32	23d	1	0.96mi
4473 47th Ave NE Salem, OR	3.0	1.0	1244	$2,200	$1.77	43d	1	0.97mi
4209 Satter Pl NE Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	850	$1,195	$1.41	13d	2	0.99mi
3568 NE Cherry Glen Pl Salem, OR	2.0	2.0	952	$1,495	$1.57	13d	7	0.99mi
4097-4207 Satter Dr NE Unit 4139 Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	775	$1,195	$1.54	43d	1	1.01mi
4001 Satter Dr NE Unit 4067 Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	850	$1,195	$1.41	43d	1	1.05mi
4097 Satter Dr NE Unit 4157 Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	775	$1,195	$1.54	13d	1	1.05mi
5034 Armstrong Ave NE Salem, OR	3.0	2.5	1400	$2,550	$1.82	43d	1	1.14mi
4116 Lancaster Dr NE Unit 4116 Salem, OR	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,295	$1.18	23d	1	1.17mi
4114 Lancaster Dr NE Unit 4114 Salem, OR	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,295	$1.18	43d	1	1.17mi
2768 Claxter Rd NE Salem, OR	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	810	$1,599	$1.97	13d	3	1.22mi
4261 Hawthorne Ave NE Unit 218 Salem, OR	2.0	2.0	952	$1,500	$1.58	43d	1	1.22mi
4245 Hawthorne Ave NE Salem, OR	2.0	2.0	952	$1,450	$1.52	23d	1	1.24mi
2540 Hyacinth St NE Salem, OR	1.0–2.0	1.0	665	$1,220	$1.83	13d	2	1.40mi
3295 Felina Ave NE Unit 55A Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	900	$1,479	$1.64	43d	1	1.40mi
3295 Felina Ave NE Unit 85G Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	900	$1,399	$1.55	43d	1	1.40mi
3295 Felina Ave NE Unit 15H Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	900	$1,459	$1.62	43d	1	1.40mi
1813 Drexler Ln NE Unit 5095-202 Keizer, OR	2.0	1.0	848	$1,400	$1.65	23d	1	1.45mi
1813 Drexler Ln NE Unit 5076-101 Keizer, OR	1.0	1.0	725	$1,200	$1.66	43d	1	1.45mi
5188 Perry St NE Keizer, OR	3.0	2.0	1362	$2,550	$1.87	13d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $68,000 Active 80 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $68,000 Active 79 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $68,000 Active 78 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $68,000 Active 77 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $68,000 Active 75 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $68,000 Active 72 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $68,000 Active 71 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $68,000 Active 70 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $68,000 Active 69 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $74,900 Active 65 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $74,900 Active 64 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $74,900 Active 63 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $74,900 Active 62 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $74,900 Active 61 DOM
15. 2026-05-02
    price $74,900 367-char remark

    Show marketing remark (367 chars)

    2 bedroom 2 bath in 55 and over park. Well cared for with a new roof (2025); new heat pump, some updated windows, updated kitchen, new dishwasher. Get in before spring and watch the yard transform. Raised beds with strawberries. Peonies, iris, clematis, daffodils, a beautiful burning bush and more. Covered deck for year round enjoyment, carport with shed storage.

16. 2026-03-30
    listed $79,900 Active 367-char remark

    Show marketing remark (367 chars)

    2 bedroom 2 bath in 55 and over park. Well cared for with a new roof (2025); new heat pump, some updated windows, updated kitchen, new dishwasher. Get in before spring and watch the yard transform. Raised beds with strawberries. Peonies, iris, clematis, daffodils, a beautiful burning bush and more. Covered deck for year round enjoyment, carport with shed storage.

17. 2026-03-26
    historical
18. 2026-02-18
    listed $79,900 Active
19. 2025-07-03
    soldstatus $60,200 Sold
20. 2025-05-01
    historical Active under Contract
21. 2025-03-13
    price $60,000
22. 2025-02-17
    listed $65,000 Active
23. 2008-12-31
    soldstatus $14,900
24. 2008-12-03
    historical
25. 2008-09-26
    listed $14,900
26. 2005-06-14
    soldstatus $20,000
27. 2005-06-01
    historical
28. 2005-04-16
    listed $22,500
29. 2005-04-07
    historical
30. 2005-01-07
    listed $22,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $395 · $33/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $660 · $55/mo
• Expected delta: +$265/yr (+$22/mo · 67.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 14 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,462
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,809
• − Property taxes: −$395
• − Insurance: −$340
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,637
• − Management: −$1,637
• − Depreciation: −$1,978
• Taxable income: $10,666
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,560
• After-tax cash flow: $8,591/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Salem-Keizer SD 24J
• NCES district ID: 4110820
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,632
• Composite: 37.16/100
• National rank: #9017
• State rank: #103 of 183 in OR

Livability — Hayesville

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #63
• US rank: #2298

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hayesville, OR
• Population (ZIP): 45,044

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 360,940 people
• By 2030: 375,178 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 400,914 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 422,187 · +17.0%
• By 2075: 460,305 · +27.5%
• By 2100: 464,025 · +28.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 44% White 44% Two or more races 16% Asian 3% Pacific Islander 3% Native American 3% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 57% English-only · Spanish 35% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.5% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: 2.2pp · 2024: -2.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.0 2020: D+1.1 2016: R+5.0 2012: R+3.5 2008: D+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -328.50%
• Current HPI: 296.3428
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+227.1% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $74,900 WVMLS
• 2026-03-30 Listed $79,900 WVMLS
• 2026-03-26 Listing Removed — WVMLS
• 2026-02-18 Listed $79,900 WVMLS
• 2025-07-03 Sold (MLS) $60,200 WVMLS
• 2025-05-01 Contingent — WVMLS
• 2025-03-13 Price Changed $60,000 WVMLS
• 2025-02-17 Listed $65,000 WVMLS
• 2008-12-31 Sold (MLS) $14,900 WVMLS
• 2008-12-03 Listing Removed — WVMLS
• 2008-09-26 Listed $14,900 WVMLS
• 2005-06-14 Sold (MLS) $20,000 WVMLS
• 2005-06-01 Listing Removed — WVMLS
• 2005-04-16 Listed $22,500 WVMLS
• 2005-04-07 Listing Removed — WVMLS
• 2005-01-07 Listed $22,900 WVMLS

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $395 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.