4965 E Allen Ave · Flagstaff, AZ 86004

$135,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · Manufactured public records · 76 Days on market

Built 1988 5,734 sqft lot $121/sqft · 56% below area ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

OWNER WILL CARRY! Welcome to one of Flagstaff's most affordable paths to homeownership! This fully remodeled home is completely move-in ready TODAY--no projects, no headaches, just unpack and enjoy. Inside, you'll find a brand new kitchen, updated appliances, new flooring, a new furnace, a brand new electrical panel, beautifully refreshed bathrooms, and upgrades throughout that make this home feel fresh, clean, and dialed in. With 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, there's plenty of room to spread out, whether you need space for guests, a home office, or just want a little breathing room. Outside, enjoy a fully fenced side yard--perfect for pets to run, play, and enjoy the fresh mountain air. OWNER WILL CARRY with just 25 percent down. Skip the banks, skip the hassle, and step into homeownership with flexible seller financing. Lot rent is 1,100/month. All buyers must be approved by Jo Don Park management. Opportunities like this don't last--schedule your showing today before someone else beats you to it.

Key facts

• Updated appliances
• New furnace
• Fully remodeled home

Tags

• FULLY REMODELED HOME
• BRAND NEW KITCHEN
• UPDATED APPLIANCES
• NEW FLOORING
• NEW FURNACE
• BRAND NEW ELECTRICAL PANEL

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $135,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$306,000) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $977 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $127k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.0% vs local median 2.1% in Flagstaff — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#167 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing B; Watch: schools C-, employment C-, crime D-.
• Flagstaff Unified District (4192) (urban): math 18% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #158 of 249 in AZ (top 64%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 308 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 698 units permitted in Coconino County in 2024 (354 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Coconino County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.6% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $126,900 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.79% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.00%
• DSCR: 2.38
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $306,000
• List price: $135,000
• Delta: -55.88%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4837 E Kinsey Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,094 (-2%)	2mo	$403,000	$368	84
4822 E Merriam Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,094 (-2%)	4mo	$420,000	$384	81
4975 E Dean Ave	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,040 (-7%)	11mo	$120,000	$115	76
5250 W Us-89 -- #1	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,140 (+2%)	11mo	$194,000	$170	74
4914 E Bullwinkle Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,188 (+6%)	2mo	$395,000	$332	73
4895 E Allen Ave	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,288 (+15%)	2mo	$140,000	$109	70
5250 N Us 89a #5	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+9%)	3mo	$150,000	$123	70
4354 E Crystal Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,080 (-4%)	5mo	$250,000	$231	67
5600 N Dakota #17 St #17	0.17mi	3/2.0	960 (-14%)	2mo	$106,500	$111	66
6061 N Snowflake Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,061 (-5%)	4mo	$262,000	$247	64
4436 E Crystal Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,222 (+9%)	4mo	$350,000	$286	62
4347 E Wintergreen Rd	0.54mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (+11%)	8mo	$445,000	$357	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.59% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.98×
• Total profit: $36,974
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.62×
• Total profit: $98,941
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 86004

• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 308
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,417 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$169 /mo · $2,025/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$508
• Net cashflow: $977

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,181

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 55%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5000 N Mall Way Flagstaff, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	880	$2,299	$2.61	44d	7	0.49mi
5404 E Cortland Blvd Flagstaff, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	763	$2,240	$2.94	44d	1	1.13mi
5250 E Cortland Blvd Flagstaff, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	731	$2,160	$2.95	44d	1	1.26mi
5303 E Cortland Blvd Flagstaff, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	763	$2,520	$3.30	44d	1	1.28mi
5205 E Cortland Blvd Flagstaff, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	712	$2,162	$3.03	44d	16	1.42mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $135,000 Active 76 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $135,000 Active 75 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $135,000 Active 74 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $135,000 Active 73 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,000 Active 72 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $135,000 Active 70 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $135,000 Active 69 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $135,000 Active 67 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $135,000 Active 66 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $135,000 Active 65 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $135,000 Active 64 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $135,000 Active 61 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $135,000 Active 60 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $135,000 Active 59 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $135,000 Active 58 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $135,000 Active 57 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $135,000 Active 56 DOM
18. 2026-04-28
    price $135,000 1018-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1018 chars)

    OWNER WILL CARRY! Welcome to one of Flagstaff's most affordable paths to homeownership! This fully remodeled home is completely move-in ready TODAY--no projects, no headaches, just unpack and enjoy. Inside, you'll find a brand new kitchen, updated appliances, new flooring, a new furnace, a brand new electrical panel, beautifully refreshed bathrooms, and upgrades throughout that make this home feel fresh, clean, and dialed in. With 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, there's plenty of room to spread out, whether you need space for guests, a home office, or just want a little breathing room. Outside, enjoy a fully fenced side yard--perfect for pets to run, play, and enjoy the fresh mountain air. OWNER WILL CARRY with just 25 percent down. Skip the banks, skip the hassle, and step into homeownership with flexible seller financing. Lot rent is 1,100/month. All buyers must be approved by Jo Don Park management. Opportunities like this don't last--schedule your showing today before someone else beats you to it.

19. 2026-03-30
    listed $149,900 Active 1018-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1018 chars)

    OWNER WILL CARRY! Welcome to one of Flagstaff's most affordable paths to homeownership! This fully remodeled home is completely move-in ready TODAY--no projects, no headaches, just unpack and enjoy. Inside, you'll find a brand new kitchen, updated appliances, new flooring, a new furnace, a brand new electrical panel, beautifully refreshed bathrooms, and upgrades throughout that make this home feel fresh, clean, and dialed in. With 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, there's plenty of room to spread out, whether you need space for guests, a home office, or just want a little breathing room. Outside, enjoy a fully fenced side yard--perfect for pets to run, play, and enjoy the fresh mountain air. OWNER WILL CARRY with just 25 percent down. Skip the banks, skip the hassle, and step into homeownership with flexible seller financing. Lot rent is 1,100/month. All buyers must be approved by Jo Don Park management. Opportunities like this don't last--schedule your showing today before someone else beats you to it.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,005
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$2,025
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,320
• − Management: −$2,320
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable income: $10,174
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,442
• After-tax cash flow: $9,276/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Flagstaff Unified District (4192)
• NCES district ID: 0402860
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $53,510
• Composite: 21.11/100
• National rank: #8437
• State rank: #158 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Flagstaff

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #18308

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D- Employment C- Housing B Health & safety C+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Flagstaff, AZ
• County: Coconino County · 91,667 people
• City population: 91,667
• Metro: Flagstaff, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 36,394
• Household income: $81,172
• Rent vs Own: 37.2% rent · 62.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1475.0

Population outlook (Coconino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 150,645 people
• By 2030: 156,857 · +4.1%
• By 2040: 168,714 · +12.0%
• By 2050: 181,082 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 218,399 · +45.0%
• By 2100: 238,853 · +58.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 13% Native American 12% Asian 1% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 12% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Coconino

• 2024 margin: D (+19.9) · D 59.2% · R 39.4% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.9pp toward D · 2008: 17.0pp · 2024: 19.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.9 2020: D+24.1 2016: D+19.4 2012: D+14.9 2008: D+17.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -454.67%
• Current HPI: 411.8577
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• Metro: Flagstaff, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-9.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $135,000 NAZMLS
• 2026-03-30 Listed $149,900 NAZMLS

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $249 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.