37828 Newal Ave · Zephyrhills West, FL 33542

$99,990

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 564 sqft · Manufactured public records · 24 Days on market

Built 1975 4,125 sqft lot $12/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.3/30.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Two Bedroom Two Bath Mobile Home in open residential area not in park. No Fees, No Rules.

Key facts

• 125 sq. ft. lot
• New 2025 roof
• Florida room

Tags

• FLORIDA ROOM
• NEW 2025 ROOF
• COMMUNITY WELL SYSTEM
• NO HOA
• 125 SQ. FT. LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $227 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $98k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#772 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.6%/yr); 294 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $692 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($98k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $42k; list at $100k implies a 135% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $98,490 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.73%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $58,656
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
37741 Newal Ave	0.08mi	1/1.0	564 (0%)	8mo	$80,000	$142	90
6124 Creston St	0.07mi	2/2.0 (+1)	576 (+2%)	13mo	$60,000	$104	73
6044 Alpine Dr	0.27mi	1/1.0	624 (+11%)	8mo	$45,000	$72	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-5,069
• Equity at exit: $14,909

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.05×
• Total profit: $1,364
• Equity at exit: $8,645

Cash invested: $27,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33542

• Home prices YoY: -20.6%
• Rents YoY: -3.6%
• Active inventory: 294
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,135 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$91 /mo · $1,097/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$12
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$238
• Net cashflow: $227

Break-even live

Break-even rent $847

Max offer price $99,990

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,998
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
38010 14th Ave Apt 3 Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	537	$1,195	$2.23	24d	1	0.54mi
6302 Abbott Station Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	1.0–2.5	855	$1,466	$1.71	2d	142	0.55mi
6052 10th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	644	$1,200	$1.86	24d	1	0.58mi
5611 1st St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	600	$1,095	$1.82	17d	1	0.63mi
6991 Fort King Rd Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	500	$899	$1.80	24d	1	0.88mi
38748 Calumet Ave Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,100	$1.47	5d	1	0.97mi
5426 8th St #1 Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	432	$1,150	$2.66	24d	1	1.00mi
38112 Townview Ave Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	700	$1,100	$1.57	24d	1	1.08mi
38044 6th Ave Unit 38044 Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	494	$950	$1.92	24d	1	1.11mi
5150 6th St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	600	$925	$1.54	24d	1	1.17mi
38706 Daughtery Rd Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	445	$974	$2.19	17d	2	1.20mi
5208 7th St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	550	$950	$1.73	5d	1	1.20mi
5214 7th St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	550	$1,100	$2.00	17d	1	1.20mi
5214 7th St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	550	$950	$1.73	5d	1	1.20mi
5206 7th St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	550	$950	$1.73	5d	1	1.21mi
39029 Kirkland Dr Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	500	$950	$1.90	24d	1	1.24mi
4833 Royal Palm Dr Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	672	$1,090	$1.62	24d	1	1.38mi
5168 Crooked Ln Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	600	$1,645	$2.74	22d	1	1.38mi
5217 17th St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	540	$1,050	$1.94	24d	1	1.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $12 · $144/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2025-12-09
   status Pending
2. 2025-11-16
   listed $99,990 Active
3. 2018-01-18
   soldstatus $42,500 Sold 89-char remark

   Show marketing remark (89 chars)

   Two Bedroom Two Bath Mobile Home in open residential area not in park. No Fees, No Rules.

4. 2017-12-20
   status Pending 89-char remark

   Show marketing remark (89 chars)

   Two Bedroom Two Bath Mobile Home in open residential area not in park. No Fees, No Rules.

5. 2017-11-06
   listed $49,500 Active 89-char remark

   Show marketing remark (89 chars)

   Two Bedroom Two Bath Mobile Home in open residential area not in park. No Fees, No Rules.

6. 2002-12-05
   soldstatus $32,000
7. 1994-04-19
   soldstatus $20,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,097 · $91/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,097 · $91/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,616
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,601
• − Property taxes: −$1,097
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,089
• − Management: −$1,089
• − HOA: −$144
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $1,187
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$285
• After-tax cash flow: $2,439/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Zephyrhills West

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #772
• US rank: #17403

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Zephyrhills West, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 23,612
• Household income: $49,316
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 831.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 8% Black 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 10%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -81.25%
• Current HPI: 313.3993
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.56%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+399.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-09 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-16 Listed $99,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-01-18 Sold (MLS) $42,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-12-20 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-11-06 Listed $49,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-12-05 Sold (Public Records) $32,000 Public Records
• 1994-04-19 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,097 · +10.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.