170 Oak Bend Trl · Marshall, TX 75672

$164,500

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,016 sqft · SingleFamily · 44 Days on market

Built 2021 0.72 ac lot ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

New 4 Bedroom, 2 Bathroom home in Marshall ISD!!! This home comes partially furnished and will be move-in ready soon. Enjoy the open floor plan and country living setting with close proximity to all the best Marshall has to offer. Furnishings to convey with property at closing. * * * Must have appointment to view. * * *

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Storage building
• Carport

Tags

• SPLIT MASTER LAYOUT
• TWO SPACIOUS LIVING AREAS
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• LARGE KITCHEN
• STORAGE BUILDING
• CARPORT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; 2 garage spaces; Carport
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank
• Home design: One level; Manufactured home (residential)
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Vinyl siding; Composition roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built as a manufactured home
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Deck; Chain link fencing; Storage structure

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric water heater
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Walk-in closets; Breakfast bar; Blinds

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $164k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $68 ($821/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $164k).
• Recommended offer: $160k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#451 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Marshall ISD (town): math 29% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #658 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 171 active listings in the ZIP; 85 units permitted in Harrison County in 2024 (15 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 61% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $159,565 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.78%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-22,217
• Equity at exit: $24,527

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-13,397
• Equity at exit: $14,223

Cash invested: $46,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75672

• Active inventory: 171
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,648 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$863
• Tax from tax record: −$302 /mo · $3,624/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $68

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,561

Max offer price $164,500

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,125
• Closing costs: $4,935
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $164,500 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $164,500 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $164,500 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $164,500 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $164,500 Active 40 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $164,500 Active 38 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $164,500 Active 37 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $174,500 Active 35 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $174,500 Active 34 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $174,500 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $174,500 Active 32 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $174,500 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $174,500 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $174,500 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $174,500 Active 24 DOM
16. 2026-05-05
    listed $174,500 Active 435-char remark
17. 2022-04-07
    soldstatus 325-char remark

    Show marketing remark (325 chars)

    New 4 Bedroom, 2 Bathroom home in Marshall ISD!!! This home comes partially furnished and will be move-in ready soon. Enjoy the open floor plan and country living setting with close proximity to all the best Marshall has to offer. Furnishings to convey with property at closing. * * * Must have appointment to view. * * *

18. 2021-09-24
    listed $195,085 325-char remark

    Show marketing remark (325 chars)

    New 4 Bedroom, 2 Bathroom home in Marshall ISD!!! This home comes partially furnished and will be move-in ready soon. Enjoy the open floor plan and country living setting with close proximity to all the best Marshall has to offer. Furnishings to convey with property at closing. * * * Must have appointment to view. * * *

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,624 · $302/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,624 · $302/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 61% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,770
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,215
• − Property taxes: −$3,624
• − Insurance: −$822
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,582
• − Management: −$1,582
• − Depreciation: −$4,785
• Taxable loss: −$1,839
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$441
• After-tax cash flow: $1,262/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marshall ISD
• NCES district ID: 4829160
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $40,095
• Composite: 24.43/100
• National rank: #7680
• State rank: #658 of 826 in TX

Livability — Marshall

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #451
• US rank: #9156

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 18,670
• Population (ZIP): 16,636

Population outlook (Harrison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,691 people
• By 2030: 69,317 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 69,973 · +1.9%
• By 2050: 70,090 · +2.0%
• By 2075: 70,607 · +2.8%
• By 2100: 67,546 · -1.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 4% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Harrison

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.6) · D 24.4% · R 75.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.2pp toward R · 2008: -31.4pp · 2024: -50.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.6 2020: R+45.6 2016: R+43.9 2012: R+34.6 2008: R+31.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -161.59%
• Current HPI: 140.8166
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-15.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Price Changed $164,500 LAAR
• 2026-05-05 Listed $174,500 LAAR
• 2022-04-07 Sold (MLS) — LAAR
• 2021-09-24 Listed $195,085 LAAR

Property tax history

+34.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,624 · +16.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.