Richland Plan · Allenhurst, GA 31301

$313,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,720 sqft · SingleFamily · 394 Days on market

Good condition $30/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The home is part of our Covenant Series! This two-story Richland Covenant Series with 4 beds/2.5 baths is the perfect open floor plan! Walking in from the garage, you enter the wide-open kitchen which is convenient for carrying in groceries after a long day! There is a large family room that connects to the breakfast area and living room. This Richland plan also features a two-story foyer, a mud room, and a powder room located downstairs. On the second floor, there is a master suite with a sitting area, 3 bedrooms, a full bath, laundry area, and walk-in closets. Artistic renderings are for informational purposes only. Actual floor plans, features and inclusions may vary.

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Listed 394 days

🏗️ New construction. The $313,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $314,885.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $314k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-410 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $256k (18.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $227k (27.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $227k (27.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#319 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Long County (rural): math 26% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #115 of 174 in GA (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Smiley Elementary School (1,258 students, 67% FRL); Long County Middle School (math 21% / reading 27%, grade F, #311 of 470 statewide, top 68%, 945 students, 69% FRL); Long County High School (math 37% / reading 22%, grade F, #140 of 424 statewide, top 35%, 1,209 students, 70% FRL).
• Market conditions: 186 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 298 units permitted in Long County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $490 appreciation (0.2% local appreciation)).
• Long County population projected at +72% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 394 days — a 12% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $227,355 (27.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 394 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.73%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.58%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $314,885
• List price: $313,900
• Delta: -0.31%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
237 Deer Meadow Way SE	0.50mi	4/2.5	2,720 (0%)	12mo	$338,725	$125	66
177 Deer Meadow Way SE	0.44mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,813 (+3%)	11mo	$349,995	$124	57
219 Deer Meadow Way SE	0.48mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,845 (+5%)	12mo	$364,995	$128	52
279 Deer Meadow Way SE	0.55mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,870 (+6%)	12mo	$367,055	$128	48
316 Deer Meadow Way SE	0.59mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,870 (+6%)	11mo	$382,460	$133	47
9553 Tibet Hwy SE	0.60mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,813 (+3%)	24mo	$348,975	$124	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.16% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-32,965
• Equity at exit: $93,887

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-18,182
• Equity at exit: $114,835

Cash invested: $88,168 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 16 active · 17 under contract
• Months of supply: 13.7 mo (7%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $341,875 ($126/sqft)
• Median days on market: 55 d
• This list price: 25% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -8.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 31301

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 186
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,274 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,651
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$394 /mo · $4,723/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$30
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$477
• Net cashflow: $-410

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,793

Max offer price $255,558

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-192	-5% $-301	+0% $-410	+5% $-519	+10% $-628
Rent	-10% $-590	-5% $-500	+0% $-410	+5% $-320	+10% $-230
Rate	-1.0pp $-251	-0.5pp $-330	base $-410	+0.5pp $-492	+1.0pp $-575

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,721
• Closing costs: $9,447
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9635 Tibet Hwy SE Allenhurst, GA	5.0	3.5	2400	$2,600	$1.08	139d	1	0.69mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $313,900 Active 394 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $313,900 Active 393 DOM
3. 2026-09-20
   days on market $313,900 Active 391 DOM
4. 2026-09-19
   days on market $313,900 Active 390 DOM
5. 2026-09-18
   days on market $313,900 Active 389 DOM
6. 2026-09-17
   days on market $313,900 Active 388 DOM
7. 2026-09-16
   days on market $313,900 Active 387 DOM
8. 2026-09-15
   days on market $313,900 Active 386 DOM
9. 2026-09-14
   days on market $313,900 Active 385 DOM
10. 2026-09-13
    days on market $313,900 Active 384 DOM
11. 2026-09-12
    days on market $313,900 Active 383 DOM
12. 2026-09-11
    days on market $313,900 Active 382 DOM
13. 2026-09-05
    days on market $313,900 Active 376 DOM
14. 2026-09-04
    days on market $313,900 Active 375 DOM
15. 2026-09-03
    days on market $313,900 Active 374 DOM
16. 2026-09-02
    days on market $313,900 Active 373 DOM
17. 2026-08-30
    days on market $313,900 Active 370 DOM
18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $313,900 Active 369 DOM
19. 2026-08-28
    days on market $313,900 Active 368 DOM
20. 2026-08-27
    days on market $313,900 Active 367 DOM
21. 2026-08-26
    days on market $313,900 Active 366 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $313,900 Active 365 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $313,900 Active 364 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $313,900 Active 363 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $313,900 Active 362 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $313,900 Active 361 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $313,900 Active 360 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $313,900 Active 359 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $313,900 Active 358 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $313,900 Active 357 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $313,900 Active 356 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $313,900 Active 355 DOM
33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $313,900 Active 354 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $313,900 Active 353 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $313,900 Active 352 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $313,900 Active 351 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $313,900 Active 350 DOM
38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $313,900 Active 349 DOM
39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $313,900 Active 348 DOM
40. 2026-08-07
    days on market $313,900 Active 347 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $313,900 Active 346 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $313,900 Active 345 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $313,900 Active 344 DOM
44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $313,900 Active 343 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $313,900 Active 340 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $313,900 Active 339 DOM
47. 2026-07-29
    days on market $313,900 Active 338 DOM
48. 2026-07-27
    days on market $313,900 Active 336 DOM
49. 2026-07-25
    days on market $313,900 Active 334 DOM
50. 2026-07-24
    days on market $313,900 Active 333 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,283
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,638
• − Property taxes: −$4,723
• − Insurance: −$1,574
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,183
• − Management: −$2,183
• − HOA: −$360
• − Depreciation: −$9,160
• Taxable loss: −$10,539
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,529
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,391/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It has a good roof, exterior, flooring, and interior walls. The home is move-in ready and has the potential to be further enhanced with some cosmetic updates to the exterior and interior.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping the front yard — A well-maintained front yard can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more appealing to potential buyers ↑
• Both Installing smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's value and appeal to tech-savvy buyers ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 26/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Mcclelland Elementary School F GA #728/1,228 Nat'l #29,575/41,679 Middle Long County Middle School F GA #311/470 Nat'l #10,795/14,009 High Long County High School F GA #140/424 Nat'l #11,215/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Long County
• NCES district ID: 1303360
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $45,958
• Composite: 22.51/100
• National rank: #8090
• State rank: #115 of 174 in GA

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Allenhurst

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #319
• US rank: #17124

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 24,669 people
• Metro: Hinesville, GA
• Population (ZIP): 4,933
• Household income: $65,417
• Rent vs Own: 55.7% rent · 44.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

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Population outlook (Long County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,669 people
• By 2030: 28,223 · +14.4%
• By 2040: 35,430 · +43.6%
• By 2050: 42,403 · +71.9%
• By 2075: 56,996 · +131.0%
• By 2100: 64,185 · +160.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 51% White 31% Two or more races 15% Hispanic / Latino 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 7%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Long

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 35.1% · R 64.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.4pp toward R · 2008: -24.1pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+26.4 2016: R+30.8 2012: R+22.9 2008: R+24.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.16%
• Current HPI: 187.7716
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Hinesville, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-08-25 Listed $313,900 Zillow